Peter Hayes

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Peter Hayes is Adjunct Professor, Center for International Security Studies, Sydney University, Australia and Director, Nautilus Institute in Berkeley, California.

He works at the nexus of security, environment and energy policy problems. Best known for innovative cooperative engagement strategies in North Korea, he has developed techniques at Nautilus Institute for seeking near-term solutions to global security and sustainability problems and applied them in East Asia, Australia, and South Asia.

Peter has worked for many international organizations including UN Development Programme, Asian Development Bank, and Global Environment Facility. He was founding director of the Environment Liaison Centre in Kenya in 1975. He has traveled, lived, and worked in Asia, North America, Europe and Africa. He has visited North Korea seven times. He was born in Melbourne Australia; today he is a dual national of Australia and the United States. He is married with two children.

Contact details

Nautilus@SF: phayes@nautilus.org
Nautilus@RMIT: peter.hayes@rmit.edu.au
Complete RMIT contact details for Peter Hayes.

Education

1980-1989: Doctorate awarded by Energy and Resources Group, University of California at Berkeley.
1978-1979: Energy and Resources Group, UC Berkeley, Master of Arts in Energy and Resources.
1971-l977: University of Melbourne, Bachelor of Arts.

Current Research Interests

In addition to on-going work on global security and sustainability issues in Asia-Pacific, Peter is developing practical ways to tackle the interrelationships between global problems.

Public Service

  • Cited or interviewed on weekly basis by many mass media including: New York Times, International Herald Tribune, Los Angeles Times, Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle, Wall Street Journal, Washington Times, Korea Herald, Yomiuri Shimbun, Asahi Shimbun, Sydney Morning Herald, AP Wire Service, Al Jazeera, Reuters Wire Service, CBS Evening News, CSPAN, PBS News Hour, CNN, Fox News, National Public Radio, KQED, Kyodo News Service, BBC, Al Jazeera, Radio Free Asia, CBC Canada, MNBC Seoul, Asia Times, Asia-Pacific Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Radio Australia; opeds in many papers and journals including Far Eastern Economic Review, San Francisco Chronicle, LA Times.
  • Co-founder, Friends of the Earth Australia, 1973-75.
  • First Director, Environmental Liaison Centre, Nairobi, Kenya, 1975-6.
  • Co-founder, Nautilus Institute, 1977-present.
  • Launched Pegasus Project in San Francisco, 1992-2004, currently Pegasus Voyages
  • Editorial Board member, Pacific Focus, a scholarly journal on East Asia.
  • Editorial Board member, Global Asia, a scholarly journal on East Asia and global issues.

Awards and Recognition

  • MacArthur Fellowship (2000) “for combining rigorous multidisciplinary training and technological knowledge with cultural sensitivity, policy acumen, and diplomatic skills…including non-governmental diplomacy of the highest order.”
  • Gleitsman Award (2001) for “exceptional achievement of people who have initiated social change.”
  • Global Korea Award (2001) “to recognize individuals or groups who have made significant contribution to cross-cultural understanding, global education, and well-being of Korean people around the world.”
  • Genius Edition, Wave Magazine, July, 2003, profiled as “one of San Francisco’s 10 smartest people.”

Interviews and Presentations On-line

K57 Guam Radio

12 April 2013 14:45 Travis Coffman in Guam on the Big Show at Radio Newstalk K-57 interviews Peter Hayes on the North Korean threat to fire nuclear weapons at Guam.    An in-depth analysis of the actual capabilities of the DPRK military from the Nautilus Institute.

Hayes Fukushima USF talk

University San Francisco Panel April 21-2011 with Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director, and Kirk Smith, Professor of Global Environmental Health at UC Berkeley exploring the nuclear crisis in Japan and long-term implications for the environment, energy policy and public health

Witness: “North Korea: The Stalker State”

A video conference by Watson Institute’s Global Security Matrix at Brown University with Peter Hayes, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, October 26, 2006.  North Korea’s slow motion proliferation over the last two decades cannot be explained in standard strategic frameworks such as deterrence theory. Instead, Peter Hayes outlined how North Korea used nuclear threat in various forms to stalk the United States in search of a security relationship – a form of nuclear compellence that most American policymakers found bizarre and extortionate. Hayes contrasted his theory of the Stalker State with other theories circulating on North Korea such as the Soprano State. He also explained why he believed that North Korea was likely to test nuclear weapons in the near future, a thesis that he advanced in his paper “Embrace Tiger, Retreat to Mountain, Test Nuke.”

China – U.S. Climate Change Forum: What’s at Risk?

Peter Hayes addresses the forumPeter Hayes joined a panel of ecologists, economists, and insurers to examine the economic and social risks of climate change, the vast differences in the vulnerability of different nations and social groups to those risks, and the scale of investment needed to adapt to climate change as its impacts increase. The China – U.S. Climate Change Forum: What’s at Risk? was organised by the the Berkeley China Initiative.  The text of his talk is available as “Multiple jeopardies: emerging global rules for climate change adaptation”.

Hayes Debates DPRK with former CIA Director on PBS

Uncommon Knowlege logo Peter Hayes, along with former CIA director James Woolsey, were interviewed by Peter Robinson for the PBS show Uncommon Knowledge on the topic of North Korea, nuclear weapons, and US Diplomacy. According to Hayes, “I think what is crucial… is unleashing the precision guided markets and the precision guided non-governmental organizations that will transform North Korea inside out, rather than putting pressure on it, which simply solidifies it into the black hole where it already is.”

“N. Korea Expert: U.S. Should Engage Pyongyang in Wide Dialogue to Defuse Tensions”

Council on Foreign Relations logo Hayes was interviewed by Bernard Gwertzman, consulting editor for Council on Foreign Relations in New York on October 27, 2003.

“Interview With History”

Peter Hayes in conversation with Harry Kreisler This April 18, 2003 interview is part of UC Berkeley’s Institute of International Studies “Conversations with History” series.

North Korea Nuclear Weapons Program

National Public Radio logo Jacki Lyden of National Public Radio talks with Peter Hayes, a North Korea Expert with the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, on Oct. 16, 2002 on the White House’s allegations that North Korea has admitted to a secret nuclear weapons development program, in violation of its 1994 agreement with the United States.

Russia-North Korea Dealings

All Things Considered logo August 4, 2001. Host Lisa Simeone talks on National Public Radio with Peter Hayes, Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development about a joint declaration signed today by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.

Blowin’ in the Wind

Online NewsHour logo February 11, 1999. PBS Newshour Chief Correspondent Elizabeth Farnsworth talks with Peter Hayes, director of the Nautilus Institute at Berkeley, about his wind power project in North Korea.

 

Selected Security and Sustainability Publications

2014

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2012

2011

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2009

2008

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2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

      • October 2001: Co-author, Energy Security and International Electricity Exchanges in Northeast Asia: Background and Summary Results of the 2001 Nautilus Institute Workshop on Northeast Asia Power Grid Interconnection. Nautilus Institute Report.
      • Author, “Environmental Security In A World Of Perpetual War,” presented at Environmental Grantmakers Association, Brainerd Minnesota, October 8, 2001
      • September 2001: Co-author, Estimated Costs and Benefits of Power Grid Interconnections in Northeast Asia. Based on a Presentation Prepared for the Northeast Asia Grid Interconnection Workshop, hosted by Nautilus Institute, the State Power International Service Company and the Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing, China, May 14 to 16, 2001. Nautilus Institute Report.
      • May 20, 2001: Co-author, Rural Energy Survey in Unhari, DPRK: Methods, Results and Implications, Nautilus Institute Special Report.
      • February 15, 2001: Co-author, Modernizing the US-DPRK Agreed Framework, The Energy Imperative, Nautilus Policy Forum On-line.
      • 2001: Co-author, “East Timor and Asian Security,” in ed. R. Tanter, M. Selden, S. Shalom, Bitter Flowers, Sweet Flowers, East Timor, Indonesia, and the World Community, Rowman and Littlefield, New York, pp. 173-188.

2000

1999

1998

      • October 1998: Co-author, “Environmental Problems and the Energy Sector in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)” in Asian Perspective.
      • October 1998: Co-author, “Two Scenarios of Nuclear Power and Nuclear Waste Production in Northeast Asia“. Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy, volume 8, no 1, June 1998, pp. 9-22.
      • 1998: Co-author, Two Scenarios of Nuclear Power and Nuclear Waste Production in Northeast Asia, Case Study 97-2, Center for International Studies, Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea.
      • May 1998: Co-author, Pacific Asian Regional Energy Security: Frameworks for Analysis and Japan Case Study. Synthesis Report for Pacific Asian Regional Energy Security (PARES) Project, Phase I. Nautilus Institute report.
      • January 1998: Co-author, “North Korean Energy Sector: Current Status and Scenarios for 2000 and 2005″. Chapter 6 in Economic Integration of the Korean Peninsula, Institute for International Economics Special Report 10, M. Noland, editor.

1997

      • November 1997: Co-author, Sustainable Energy in a Developing World: The Role of Knowledgeable Markets. Prepared for the United Nations University Symposium on Environment (Group on Market Forces and Environment), November 14 – 15, 1997.
      • November 1997: Co-author, An Estimate Of Energy Use In The Armed Forces Of The Democratic People’s Republic Of Korea. Nautilus Institute report. Co-author; published in The Economics of Korean Reunification, vol. 2, no. 3-4, Fall-Winter, 1997, pp. 56-79.
      • October 1997: Co-author, Demand for and Supply of Electricity and other Fuels in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK): Results and Ramifications for 1990 through 2005. Prepared for the Northeast Asia Economic Forum/East-West Center.
      • September 1997: Co-author, DPRK Energy Sector: Current Status and Scenarios for 2000 and 2005, presented at the Conference: Economic Integration of the Korean Peninsula Washington, D.C.
      • August 1997: Co-author, Ecological Crisis and the Quality of Life in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). Prepared for the Conference: “Unraveling Regime Dynamics in North Korea: Contending Perspectives and Comparative Implications”, The Institute for Korean Unification Studies, Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea, August 20, 1997.
      • August 1997: Co-author, Comparative Approach to Regional Cooperation for a Clean, Efficient Electric Power Industry. Prepared for the Conference: “Comparative Approaches to Cooperative Development of Power Systems for Northeast Asia”, organized by the Northeast Asia Economic Forum, Ulaan Baatar, Mongolia, August 18 – 20, 1997.
      • March 1997: Co-author, East Asia Energy Futures: Towards Least-Cost Energy Investment in Northeast Asia–Progress Report. Nautilus Institute report.
      • January, 1997: Co-author, “Engaging North Korea on Energy Efficiency”. The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Volume VIII, No. 2, Winter 1996. Pages 177 – 221.
      • January, 1997: Co-author, Demand For HFO and Other Fuels in the DPRK: 1996 and 2000. Nautilus Institute report to KEDO.
      • 1997: Co-author and editor, Peace and Security in Northeast Asia, the Nuclear Issue, M.E. Sharpe, Armonk, New York.

1996

      • December, 1996: Co-author, “Energy in Northeast Asia“. In Environmental Threats and National Security: An International Challenge to Science and Technology, B.R. Allenby, T.J. Gilmartin, and R.F. Lehman II, editors. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Center for Global Security Research, Report No. UCRL-ID-129655, California, USA.
      • March 1996: Co-author, Summary Background Paper On Rural Electrification In The APEC Region: Technical Options And Initial Framework For Evaluation Of Alternatives. Draft document prepared for the United Nations Development Programme.
      • December 14, 1996: Co-author, KEDO and HFO Demand in the DPRK, Nautilus Institute report to KEDO.
      • 1996: Co-author, Summary Background Paper On Rural Electrification In The APEC Region: Technical Options And Initial Framework For Evaluation Of Alternatives, report to APEC Energy Working Group, Tokyo.
      • 1996: Co-author, The Prospects for Energy Efficiency Improvements in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea: Evaluating and Exploring the Options. Nautilus Institute 1996 report, also published in Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. VonHippel DF, Hayes P Engaging North Korea on energy efficiency Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 8 (2): 177& WIN 1996
      • 1996: Co-author and editor, Space Power Interests, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado.

1995

      • 1995: Co-author, The Prospects for Energy Efficiency Improvements in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea: Evaluating and Exploring the Options. Nautilus Institute report.
      • 1995: Co-author, Climate Change and the Rise in Sea Level with their Accompanying Socioeconomic Impacts and Response Strategies for Asia and the Pacific. Nautilus Institute report, prepared for UN-ESCAP, Bangkok.
      • July 1995: Co-author with General Pan Zhenqiang, Summary Working Group 5, Security in the Asia Pacific Region, 45th Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs, Towards a Nuclear-Weapons-Free World, Hiroshima, Japan, July 23-29, 1995.
      • June 13 – 15, 1995: Co-author, “Climate Change and Associated Sea Level Rise — Potential Impacts, Responses, and Policy”. In The Role of Science and Technology in Promoting Environmentally Sustainable Development, Proceedings of the Science and Technology Policy Institute and United Nations University Joint Seminar, Seoul, Korea.
      • June 1995: Co-author, “Acid Rain in a Regional Context,” in The Role of Science and Technology in Promoting Environmentally Sustainable Development, Proceedings of the Science and Technology Policy Institute and United Nations University Joint Seminar, Seoul, Korea, June 13 – 15, 1995.
      • 1995: Co-author, “Environmental Issues and Regimes in Northeast Asia,” Journal of International Environmental Affairs, volume 6, 1995, pp. 283 et passim.
      • 1995: “The Transfer of Light-Water Reactor Technology to the DPRK,” in T. Kim and S. Harrison, eds, Dealing with the North Korean Nuclear Problem, Hanul Publishing Company, 1995.

1994

1993

      • December 1993: “What North Korea Wants,” The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, volume 49, no. 10, , pp. 8-10.
      • November 16, 1993: “Should The United States Supply Light Water Reactors To Pyongyang?” paper to the symposium “United States and North Korea: What Next?” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington DC.
      • November 1993: Report on Global Environment Facility Mission to the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea, Nautilus
      • September 1993: Co-author, Regional Cooperation and Environmental Issues in Northeast Asia, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper, San Diego.
      • September 7, 1993: P. Hayes, “North Korea’s Nuclear Gambits” [HTML] North Korea’s Nuclear Gambits [PDF] in K. Bailey, edited, Director’s Series on Proliferation, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, UCRL-LR-114070-2.
      • 1993: Cooperation on Energy Sector Issues with the DPRK, report to Asia Society, October 29/93; Cooperation on Environmental Issues with the DPRK, report to Asia Society, October 29/93; Cooperation on International Economic Issues with the DPRK, report to Asia Society, November 2/93; The Transfer of Lwr Technology to the DPRK, report to Asia Society, November 1, 1993.
      • 1993: Japan’s Plutonium Overhang and Regional Insecurity, Working Paper, Peace Research Center, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, 1993; published in Fall 1993 issue of Pacific Focus, volume 8, no 2, pp. 83-108.
      • 1993: “International Missile Trade and the Two Koreas,” in W. Potter and H. Jencks, The International Missile Bazaar: The New Suppliers’ Network, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1993; as an occasional paper from the Monterey Institute for International Studies, March 1993; and “International Missile Trade and the Two Koreas, in Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Seoul, May, summer, 1993, no 1, pp. 207-239.
      • 1993: Co-author and editor, Global Greenhouse Regime: Who Pays?, UN University Press/Earthscan Press, Tokyo and London.
      • 1993: “The Republic of Korea’s Nuclear Potential,” paper to Conference on the Future of Security on the Korean Peninsula, Australian National University, February 1992; working paper from Department of International Relations, ANU, 1992; also in Pacific Focus, Volume 7, no 1, Spring 1992, pp. 23-57; and in A. Mack ed, Asian Flashpoint, Security and the Korean Peninsula, Allen and Unwin, Sydney, pp. 51-84.

1992

      • November 1992: UNDP Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Least Cost Reduction Study, UNDP reports for Mongolia and North and South Korea, Berkeley.
      • April 1992: “Moving Target, Korea’s Nuclear Proliferation Potential,” paper to Asian Pacific Peace Research Conference, Christchurch, February 1992; also available as working paper from Department of International Relations, ANU, 1992; also in Sekai magazine, Tokyo; and in Korean Journal of International Studies.
      • February 1992: “Moving Target, North Korea’s Nuclear Potential,” Peace Research, pp. 6-11.

1991

      • November 7, 1991: “Kim’s Elusive Bomb,” Far Eastern Economic Review, 154: 45, pp. 10-11; also in Sisa Journal (Seoul), November.
      • September 1991: Greenhouse Reduction Regimes: Evaluating the Costs, report to Department of the Arts, Sport, the Environment, Tourism and Territories, Nautilus Pacific Research, Melbourne.
      • 1991: Co-author, Chasing Gravity’s Rainbow, Kwajalein and U.S. Ballistic Missile Testing, Centre for Defense and Strategic Studies, Australian National University, Canberra.
      • 1991: “Sustainable Energy Futures–Balance vs Integration Paradigms,” in N. Bierbaum ed, Towards Ecological Sustainability, Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development, Flinders University, Adelaide, pp. 45-49.

1990

      • 1990: Proliferation Potential in Korea, Working Paper, Peace Research Centre, Australian National University, Canberra.
      • May 1990: Co-author, Images of Asian-Pacific Futures, in Ministry of External Relations and Trade, Proceedings of the Pacific Security Symposium, Wellington, New Zealand.
      • 1990: Pacific Powderkeg, American Nuclear Dilemmas in Korea, Lexington Books, Lexington Massachusetts, also published by Hanul Press in Seoul, translated into Korean.
      • 1990: “South Korean Nuclear Trade,” paper to UCLA Center for International and Strategic Affairs Conference on Emerging Nuclear Suppliers and Nonproliferation, Bellagio, Italy, August l987, published as “Korea” in W. Potter, ed, International Nuclear Trade and Non Proliferation, The Challenge of the Emerging Suppliers, Lexington Books, pp. 293-329.

1989

      • 1989: “Hall of Mirrors, American Nuclear Deterrence in Korea,” in Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, Beyond Deterrence, University of Sydney, pp. 45-58.
      • November 1989: “Rand’s Nuclear Nightmares in Asia,” Sekai (Tokyo).
      • September 7, 1989: “The Conventional Arms Race and Arms Control in Korea,” paper to Institute of Global Strategic Studies conference, Seattle.
      • September 1989: (under pseudonym), “The Rise and Fall of Pacific Command,” Sekai (Tokyo), pp. 272-286.

1988

      • December 1988: “American Nuclear Hegemony in the Pacific,” Journal of Peace Research, volume 25, no 4, p. 351.
      • April 1988: Co-author, National Rural Electrification Master Plan, Pakistan, report to U.S. AID/Government of Pakistan, Lahore, Pakistan.

1987

1986

      • December 1986: “Extended Nuclear Deterrence in Korea: Some Problems,” paper to U.S.-Korean Security Studies Council, Conference, Bloomington Indiana.
      • July 1986: Co-author, “Arms Control in the North Pacific,” paper to 7th International Conference on Asia Pacific, Nahodka, USSR.
      • June 1986: “Nuclear Accidents: The Risks in Warship Visits,” Current Affairs Bulletin, volume 63, no 1, June 1986, pp. 4-11.
      • April, 1986: Co-author, “Pacific Arms Control and Regional Initiatives,” paper to United Nations University Conference, Peace and Security in Oceania, Auckland.
      • 1986: Co-author, “Die Amerikanische Bedrohung: Die US-Marine breitet sich auf einen Pazifischen Krieg vor,” in edited P. Franke, Die Militarisierung Des Pazifik, Informationszentrum Dritte Welt/Freiburg Sudostasien Informationsstelle, Bremen.

1985

      • May 23, 1985: Co-author, “Geopolitical Analysis of Northeast Asia, The Prospects for War, Peace, and Reunification of Korea,” paper to Annual Meeting of the Association of Korean Christian Scholars, Washington DC.
      • 1985: Co-author, “The U.S. and ANZUS, The Nuclear Peril in the Pacific,” in edited C.Dann and B. Harford, Beyond ANZUS, Alternatives for Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific, Ross Publications, Auckland.

1984

      • December 1984: Co-author, Warships and Warheads, U.S.-Pacific Connections, Nautilus Pacific Research monograph.
      • Summer 1984: Co-author and editor, “Pacific Alert,” special issue, Southeast Asia Chronicle, no 95, November 1984, pp. 1-27.
      • May 1984: co-author, “Bechtel: A Tale of Corruption,” Multinational Monitor, no 5, volume 5, May 1984, pp. 10-22.

1983

      • October 1983: Co-author, Report of the Regional Rural Electrification Survey, report to the Energy Planning Unit, Asian Development Bank, Manila,. 2 volumes.
      • Fall, 1983: Pseudoym (John Harris) and Co-author, “Nuclear Power in the Philippines: “The Plague that Poisons Morong!”” Review of Radical Political Economics, volume 15, no 3, Fall 1983, pp. 51-65.

1982

1980

1979

1977

1976