Policy Forum

Nautilus Institute’s Policy Forum‘s focus is on the timely publication of expert analysis and op-ed style pieces on the foremost of security-related issues to Northeast Asia. Its mission is to facilitate a multilateral flow of information among an international network of policy-makers, analysts, scholars, media, and readers. Policy Forum essays are typically from a wide range of expertise, political orientations, as well as geographic regions and seeks to present readers with opinions and analysis by experts on the issues as well as alternative voices not typically presented or heard. Feedback, comments, responses from Policy Forum readers are highly encouraged.

NAPSNet, Policy Forum

Non-State Nuclear Attack Urban Target Arrays—Pathways and Risk Reduction Strategies

In this policy forum essay, Peter Hayes argues that a determined non-state nuclear terrorist can choose to threaten any one of hundreds of cities, with a nuclear weapon, with a radiological weapon, or by attacking nuclear facilities.  The key risk reduction measures are to reduce numbers and increase security of nuclear weapons; favor urban form that increases urban resilience; and ensure spent fuel and reactors are extremely difficult to attack.

Peter Hayes is Professor of International Relations, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University, Australia and Director, Nautilus Institute.

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A New Day in Northeast Asia?

James Goodby and Markku Heiskanen assess the significance of the recently reached agreement to reopen the Kaesong Industrial Complex. They write: “it shows a readiness to negotiate on both sides and could be seen as a first success for “trustpolitik,” President Park’s description of her hopes for North-South relations. Perhaps it signals the beginning of a new day in Korea.”
James Goodby is a former US ambassador to Finland now affiliated with Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and with the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution.

Markku Heiskanen is a retired Finnish diplomat, now program director of The Asia Institute in Seoul.

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Connecting the Dots – In an Ocean?

Nikhil Desai questions the dubious connection between violence and crime and regional and global rises in temperatures.

Nikhil Desai, a Nautilus Associate, is an energy and environmental economist now dividing his time between Washington, DC and Ahmedabad, India.

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Strategic Environment for Kim Jong-Un’s Visit to China: Three Emphases

Roger Cavazos: Any visit Kim Jong-un will make to China will have a broader bi-lateral component and a lesser Six Party Component. “China always looks for activities that address multiple concerns simultaneously. Three possible emphases that push multiple goals include: some kind of trade agreement, people to people exchanges and broaching the subject of a comprehensive security settlement.”

Roger Cavazos is a Nautilus Institute Associate and retired US military intelligence officer.

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“The Papua-New Guinea Solution”: Competitive Cruelty and Strategic Folly

Richard Tanter writes that policy competition between the Labor government and conservative opposition to “stop the boats” bringing asylum seekers to Australia by ship is producing strategically dangerous outcomes. Both government and opposition are now committed to isolating all asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat in Papua-New Guinea, in cluding successful applicants for asylum. It is hard, Tanter concludes, “to think of anything else an Australian government could do in a single policy move more likely to undermine the already limited chances of sustainable peace in Papua-New Guinea.”

Richard Tanter is a Nautilus Institute Associate and Professor in the School of Political and Social Studies at the University of Melbourne.

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Local Level Responsibility for Climate Change in Pakistan

Saleem Janjua writes that “increasing the capability to adapt at the local government level in Pakistan will definitely lessen susceptibility to the effects of climate change at provincial and federal levels. Hence, in Pakistan, we must begin planning our adaptive reactions now at grass-root level to help lessen some of the environmental, economic and social impacts of climate change.”

Saleem Janjua is the Climate Change Adpation contributor to the NAPSNet Weekly Report, and the Editor of AdaptNet.

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A tale of two disasters

While contrasting the outcomes of two separate natural weather events in a rich and a poor country, namely the US and India, Nikhil Desai writes that “the poor suffer the climate whether or not it changes, whether the change is natural or anthropogenic, and whether or not their or anybody else’s greenhouse gas emissions are reduced or constrained. The rich countries – and the rich among the poor countries – enjoy a physical and service infrastructure, and insurance protections, that sharply limits their physical vulnerability to climate….It is not necessary to “combat global warming”; the first business at hand is to curb climate vulnerabilities.”

Nikhil Desai is the Energy Security contributor for the NAPSNet Weekly report.

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How Should We Understand Sino-U.S. Relations in the New Great Power Relationship?

Chinese language post In this Policy Forum, Chen Jimin, rhetorically asks, “how should we understand Sino-U.S. relations in the context of a new ‘Great Power Relationship’. First he provides a way of understanding the characteristics of the new relationship and provides some basic principles defining the new relationship.

Dr Chen is an Assistant Research Fellow at the Institute for International and Strategic Studies of the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. This article originally appeared inSingapore’s Lianhe Zaobao and is re-printed here with the author’s permission.

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Defining denuclearization

In this Policy Forum Roger Cavazos explores the definition of ‘denuclearization’. He writes “Denuclearization must have some threads of national security, new power relationships, economics and climate change braided into the fabric. Pull any one of them too hard and the fabric is rent.”
Roger Cavazos is a Nautilus Institute Associate and retired US military intelligence officer.

The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Nautilus Institute. Readers should note that Nautilus seeks a diversity of views and opinions on significant topics in order to identify common ground.

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Establishing the Context for Climate Change Adaptation

Saleem Janjua writes “For developing-country local governments to start any climate adaptation actions, it is important to secure a high level commitment from local leaders….Once the vision for climate adaptation action in local governments is formulated by the political and public-sector local leadership and understood by the staff as well, strategies to adapt to climate change can then be developed easily.”

Saleem Janjua is the Climate Change Adpation contributor to the NAPSNet Weekly Report, and the Editor of AdaptNet.

The views expressed in this report d

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