Special Reports

This is the full Notice to Mariners (NOTAM) for the anticipated DPRK satellite launch. The first impact zone is in the East Sea/Sea of Japan while the second is in the Pacific Ocean. The anticipated path of the launch is within 100 kilometers of the Rokkasho Nuclear Power Plant in Japan.

Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs, and Mary Beth Nikitin, Analyst in Nonproliferation, write, “Japanese officials and experts remain remarkably uniform in their consensus that Japan is unlikely to move toward nuclear status in the short-to-medium term. However, as the security environment has shifted significantly, the topic is no longer toxic and has been broached by several leading politicians.”

The Atlantic Council of the United States, non-partisan network of leaders who aim to promote constructive U.S. leadership and engagement in international affairs, published this report “of its three-year project on U.S. policy toward North Korea. This report makes clear that unless President Obama adopts a new strategy of seeking a comprehensive settlement in Korea, the U.S. is unlikely to eliminate North Korea’s nuclear program.”

Mark E. Manyin, Specialist in Asian Affairs at the Congressional Research Service, and Mary Beth Nikitin, Analyst in Nonproliferation at the Congressional Research Service, describe US assistance to North Korea including energy, food, and other forms of aid. This report looks at the changes in the amount of this aid as well as the issues for the US congress on the provision of this assistance.

Dick K. Nanto, Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs in the Defense, and Trade Division, and Emma Chanlett-Avery, Analyst in Asian Affairs Foreign Affairs in the Defense, and Trade Division, produced this report for the Congressional Research Service. The report presents an overview of the DPRK economy and notes recent changes in the economy, information on DPRK economic reforms, and profiles the country’s relationship with each of its major trade partners.

Emma Chanlett-Avery, Analyst in Asian Affairs at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service, and Mary Beth Nikitin, Analyst in Nonproliferation at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division, of the Congressional research Service, write, “The previous taboo within the Japanese political community of discussing a nuclear weapons capability appears to have been broken, as several officials and opinion leaders have urged an open debate on the topic. Despite these factors, a strong consensus – both in Japan and among Japan watchers – remains that Japan will not pursue the nuclear option in the short-to-medium term.”

Steven A. Hildreth, Specialist in Missile Defense and Non-Proliferation in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade The U.S. Department of State released this report on May 9th detailing recent developments in the Six Party Talks process. The report notes, “Eight out of 11 agreed disablement activities at the three core facilities have been completed. Work on disablement activities continues… These actions have halted the DPRK’s ability to produce additional weapons-grade plutonium for its nuclear weapons program.”

Steven A. Hildreth, Specialist in Missile Defense and Non-Proliferation in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service, writes, “Within possible range of the Taepo Dongs are
U.S. military facilities in Guam (3,500 km), Okinawa, and Japan… In this configuration, it is estimated that it could deliver a 700 – 1,000 kg warhead to a range of 2,500 km, which could put Japan and Okinawa within range. For the Taepo Dong 1 to achieve greater range its payload would have to be decreased. Some analysts speculate that a reduced payload configuration could deliver a 200 kg warhead into the U.S. center and a 100 kg warhead to Washington D.C., albeit with poor accuracy.”

The International Crisis Group, an independent, non-profit, multinational organization, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict, writes, “Pyongyang wants Russia to balance China’s growing influence but appears to recognise that Moscow will never provide the level of support it once did. The North has been keen to discuss economic cooperation but has lacked the political will to reform its economy sufficiently for foreign investment, even from a country as inured to corruption and government interference as Russia… there is unlikely to be much growth in bilateral cooperation unless the nuclear crisis is resolved peacefully, and the North opens its economy.”

Larry Niksch, Specialist in Asian Affairs at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service, and Raphael Perl, Specialist in International Affairs at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service, writes, “A second potential policy response might be to proceed with removing North Korea from either the terrorism list or the Trading with the Enemy Act in reciprocity for North Korea allowing completion of the disablement of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities, but hold back on removing North Korea from the other until North Korea fulfills its obligation for a declaration of its nuclear programs.”