Timothy Savage, Deputy Director of the Nautilus Institute Seoul Office, writes, “Neither Lee Myung Bak’s hardline policies nor North Korea’s actions have convinced ‘sunshiners,’ particularly among the 486 generation, that they should give up the pursuit of engagement and reconciliation… Older generations inevitably die out, and the ranks of the young generation are not being replenished quickly enough… This means that the 486ers, Korea’s baby boom generation, will occupy an even greater share of the country’s population than they already do. Unless this group changes its established voting patterns, an eventual return to liberal rule is highly likely, perhaps as soon as the next presidential election.”

Mark J. Valencia, Nautilus Institute Senior Associate and National Asia Research Program (NARP) Research Associate, writes, “China is unlikely to forgive or forget the fact and especially the manner of US interference.  If anything, it may have convinced China that the die is cast.  It could confirm its worst fears that the United States is stealthily trying to draw ASEAN or some of its components together with Australia, Japan and South Korea into a soft alliance to constrain if not contain China.  And China will struggle to break out politically and militarily, setting the stage for rivalry and tension in the years ahead.”

A version of this report is available in Chinese via the Oriental Morning Post.