Policy Forum

Wonhyuk Lim, a CNAPS Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Fellow at the Korea Development Institute (KDI), and Korea National Strategy Institute (KNSI), writes, “After a decade of economic crisis, only the infusion of external capital would provide a substantive solution to the capital-labor coordination problem and put economic growth on a more stable trajectory… After his Southern Tour, Kim Jong Il should have a much better idea about how to develop an economic model suited to North Korea’s specific conditions.”

Gerry van Klinken, Australian historian and editor of Inside Indonesia, writes “The denial of East Timor’s right to self-determination – always acknowledged by the UN – was an international project, and it’s only fair the world should make amends. This is the ‘to do’ list: contribute the relevant archives to East Timor, cough up (from the profits of arms sales!) for victim compensation, table the CAVR report publicly (this one aimed at Indonesian school textbooks), and help prosecute all those responsible.”

Kim Tae Kyung, reporter at OhMyNews.com, writes “the expectation that the Chinese leadership would feel burdened by throwing money down the North Korean hole is fading when one considers that China has been the world’s sixth largest economy since last year. Moreover, in order to avoid throwing money “into a bottomless pit,” China is stressing — almost forcing — North Korea to reform and open up. Ultimately, the argument of U.S. neo-cons that China would abandon North Korea is becoming a dream or “fantasy” that can never come true.”

Ruediger Frank, Professor of East Asian Political Economy at the University of Vienna, writes, “the neglected agricultural sector experienced serious difficulties that led to a severe famine in the mid 1990s. These events were so threatening that they convinced the leadership to embark on perfection measures that go well beyond earlier attempts without, so far, violating Kornai’s combined principles of Communist party power monopoly and state ownership of means of production. However, the development of North Korea is an ongoing process. Turning back a decade from now, we might find that agriculture provided the momentum to lead North Korea into a post-socialist future.”

Bruce Klingner, Korea analyst for Eurasia Group, the world’s largest political-risk consultancy firm, writes “even if China could achieve a resumption of six-party talks – most likely by having Pyongyang agree to distinguish between the illegal actions of ‘rogue’ North Korean companies and the government – the nuclear negotiations would remain deadlocked.”

Steve Noerper, who teaches Asia Today at New York University and was a Fulbright Senior Scholar to the National University of Mongolia, writes “the downfall of Mongolia’s coalition government late Friday marks a relapse for freedom’s progress in a country that until recently had been held out as a harbinger for new democracies in the region.”

Ruediger Frank, Professor of East Asian Political Economy at the University of Vienna, writes “there is both a high risk of conflict as well as a good chance for progress on the Korean Peninsula.The Korean government therefore has a chance to actively shape the Northeast Asian future by its efforts toward North Korea, and it can utilize regional dynamics to support its policy toward the DPRK. Maintaining a proper relationship with the United States appears to be of key importance for either task.”

NAPSNet Policy Forum Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland January 12th, 2006 I. INTRODUCTION Stephan Haggard, a professor of international relations at the University of California, San Diego, where he directs the Korea-Pacific Program, and Marcus Noland, senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics, Washington, write“a revival of the failed socialist model would not only […]

Andrei Lankov, a lecturer in the faculty of Asian Studies, China and Korea Center, at Australian National University who is currently on leave, teaching at Kookmin University, Seoul, writes “active intervention in North Korea will undermine the remarkable goodwill toward China, which can be seen among many neighbors as the rising giant. So, it is more likely that the Chinese will avoid political adventurism and limit themselves to gaining economic advantages in the northern part of the Korean peninsula.”

Col. Jiyul Kim, Director of Asian Studies at the US Army War College, writes “South Korean politics is in a profound period of transition as the result of a generational shift, the end of the Cold War, democratization, and growing self-confidence. Among the emerging political forces, those that are creating the most important political fault lines are the ideologies of pan-Korean nationalism and anti-Great Power-ism. These trends could well mark the end of the U.S. — South Korean alliance as we know it.”