Policy Forum

Liu Ming, deputy director of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, writes, “If, as seems to be the case, the North Korean leadership is entering a transitional period, the new leader will face a strategic dilemma: whether to continue promoting denuclearization at the cost of worsening the economic situation. In the end, the final choice will be up to North Korea’s elite and people.”

Mark. J. Valencia, Visiting Senior Fellow at the Maritime Institute of Malaysia, and Nazery Khalid, Senior Fellow at the Maritime Institute of Malaysia, write, “there may be room for a co-operative solution like joint development, as practiced between Malaysia and Thailand in the Gulf of Thailand, although given the recent history the sharing would probably have to be largely in Indonesia’s favor… The relationship between the two is too close and precious to be soured over this issue, hence both parties must work hard at containing the dispute and settling it amicably for the sake of preserving bilateral ties and regional stability.”

Tim Savage, Deputy Director of the Nautilus Institute’s Seoul office, writes, “In the short term, we are thus unlikely to see a rapid return to negotiations, or any kind of capitulation to pressure on the part of North Korea. Instead, we are likely in for a long period of containment and stalemate, while the surrounding nations wait to see the outcome of the ongoing succession saga in Pyongyang. The only problem with this approach is that North Korea — as it showed once again with its recent volley of missile tests — does not like to be ignored, and has several tools for getting attention.”

Amii Abe, Visiting Fellow at the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, writes, “In summation, though North Korea has strong suspicions against the U.S. and has lost the enthusiasm to negotiate with Washington, they still need to talk with the U.S. at the end of the day… First of all, we need to pay attention not only to Kim Jong-Il or the next successor, but also to the hard-liners who affect decision-making in North Korea… Secondly, imposing new sanctions is necessary, but is not enough… to change the situation, the U.S. needs more fundamental action than ever before; to deal with the DPRK’s focus on the legacy of the Korean War.”

Selig S. Harrison, Director of the Asia Program at the Center for International Policy, writes, “Progress towards denuclearization would require U.S. steps to assure North Korea that it will not be the victim of a nuclear attack… Realistically, if the U.S. is unwilling to give up the option of using nuclear weapons against North Korea, it will be necessary to live with a nuclear-armed North Korea while maintaining adequate U.S. deterrent forces in the Pacific.”

Andrei Lankov, Associate Professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, writes, “It is difficult to believe that any effort to reverse the tremendous social changes of the past fifteen years will be completely successful. Still, the period of largely unhindered de-Stalinization from below is over. North Korean authorities are working hard to re-Stalinize the country and to revive the old patterns of a centrally planned and heavily controlled state socialism.”

Scott Snyder, Director of the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy at The Asia Foundation and a Senior Associate at Pacific Forum CSIS, writes, “Obama administration must go beyond a focus on disciplining North Korea’s leaders and offer a positive vision for the future of the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia that would clarify US expectations and intentions toward the region.”

Xu Hui, a reporter with the Public Welfare Times, describe the changing relationship between foundations, government oriented NGOs, and grassroots NGO in China. He describes the existing relationship between these groups, its benefits and challenges, and the potential value of alternative models.

Leonid Petrov, Research Associate at the Australian National University, writes, “the era of relaxation and experimentation, which prompted the beginning of inter-Korean cooperation, is well and truly over. North Korea is headed for a major retreat, back to military communism. Only those elements of market economy which are necessary to keep the country afloat are being preserved.”

Donald G. Gross, former counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, writes, “The administration can strongly oppose nuclear proliferation while still upholding the principles of arms control that have helped keep America safe for more than a generation. A policy approach that preserves an honored place for arms control negotiations is in the best interests of the United States and its allies, now and in the future.”