Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 28 November 2013

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 28 November 2013", NAPSNet Weekly Report, November 28, 2013,

deterrence image 3DETERRENCE: China’s tailored coercion, Patrick Cronin, War on the Rocks (25 November 2013)

China’s air defense identification zone forces Japan to act or lose face while pressing the US to restrain its ally, undermining extended deterrence short of existential threats to Japan.  China’s zone shifts competition from ocean to air space (where US and Japanese drones fly already).  The US (Guam, Aleutians), Japanese, and North Korean also have zones.

dprk imageDPRK: The economic costs of North Korean nuclear development, Scott A. Snyder, Council on Foreign Relations (25 November 2013)

North Korea’s “byungjin” policy or simultaneously pursuing economic and nuclear development is proceeding along numerous economic pathways including Special Economic Zones (SEZ), training programs and exchanges.  Lessons from previous attempts at development and analysis of opportunity costs indicate North Korea’s path is tremendously expensive (perhaps up to $50 billion) with a low likelihood of succeeding.

UNITED NATIONS CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCEENERGY SECURITY: UN Climate Change Conference in Warsaw keeps governments on a track towards 2015 climate agreement, Press release, United Nations Climate Change Secretariat (23 November 2013) [PDF, 127KB]

It was the best of worlds, it was the worst of worlds. Doing the same thing and expecting a different result is insanity or hard learning. Some NGOs, self-appointed protectors of humanity and the planet, walked out. But at the end, a word change from “commitment” to “contributions” allowed the President of COP19, Marcin Korolec – just sacked from his job as Polish environment minister – to declare “Warsaw has set a pathway”. Keeping faith and hope alive, and going where the winds blow. There are other WMDs than CO2 molecules and success anywhere is subjective.

Protesters shout slogans during a march against the government's planned secrecy law in TokyoGOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Protests mount over Japan secrecy bill, AFP (23 November 2013)

Japan’s ruling party pushed a state secrets bill through its lower house despite large public protests and opposition, as well as concerns expressed by UN experts and rights groups. Critics say the bill threatens freedom of the press and whistleblowers, with up to a ten-year jail term for leaking information. The ruling coalition argues this is necessary and a step towards establishing Japan’s version of the U.S. National Security Council.

BIHAR FLOODSCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Case studies on flash flood risk management in the Himalayas, Arun B Shrestha and Sagar R Bajracharya (editors), International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (2013) [2.37 MB, PDF]

The scientific data shows that the occurrence and strength of flash floods are rising in the eight regional member countries (China, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar and Nepal) of the Hindu Kush Himalayas. These countries, in general, lack plans, strategies, and policies addressing particularly the issue of flash floods which take place with little or no warning. Therefore, the Hindu Kush Himalayan region requires institutional strengthening, flash flood modelling, hazard mapping, and the planning and development of various land use guidelines.

austral image

AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: PM must agree to spy ‘code of ethics’, Michael Bachelard, The Age (27 November 2013)

Own goals: 1. Courtesy of Edward Snowden, Indonesian rage over Australia intelligence boasting of its interception of President SBY’s phone. 2. PM Tony Abbott declines to apologize or explain. 3. Australian commentators lament Indonesian lack of ‘rationality’.

Results: 1. Indonesia ceases cooperation with Australia on defence, trade talks, and people smuggling. 2. Indonesia demands new intelligence accord with Australia. 3. “Doh! We need them more than they need us.”

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. 

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