- DETERRENCE: China’s tailored coercion
- DPRK: The economic costs of North Korean nuclear development
- ENERGY SECURITY: UN Climate Change Conference in Warsaw keeps governments on a track towards 2015 climate agreement
- GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Protests mount over Japan secrecy bill
- CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Case studies on flash flood risk management in the Himalayas
- AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: PM must agree to spy ‘code of ethics’
DETERRENCE: China’s tailored coercion, Patrick Cronin, War on the Rocks (25 November 2013)
China’s air defense identification zone forces Japan to act or lose face while pressing the US to restrain its ally, undermining extended deterrence short of existential threats to Japan. China’s zone shifts competition from ocean to air space (where US and Japanese drones fly already). The US (Guam, Aleutians), Japanese, and North Korean also have zones.
- U.S. directly challenges china’s air defense zone, pair of American B-52 bombers fly over disputed island chain, Julian Barnes and Jeremy Page, Wall St. Journal (26 November 2013)
- China maps out its first air defense ID zone, Zhou Wa, China Daily (24 November 2013)
- Japan to shoot down foreign drones, Prime Minister Abe has approved a plan to shoot down foreign drones flying above Japanese airspace, Ankit Panda, The Diplomat (22 October 2013)
DPRK: The economic costs of North Korean nuclear development, Scott A. Snyder, Council on Foreign Relations (25 November 2013)
North Korea’s “byungjin” policy or simultaneously pursuing economic and nuclear development is proceeding along numerous economic pathways including Special Economic Zones (SEZ), training programs and exchanges. Lessons from previous attempts at development and analysis of opportunity costs indicate North Korea’s path is tremendously expensive (perhaps up to $50 billion) with a low likelihood of succeeding.
- Special Economic Zones: What have we learned? Thomas Faraole, The World Bank, (September 2011) [PDF, 707 KB]
- Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s master builder, Adam Rose, The Jakarta Globe (25 November 2013)
- North Korea senior trade officials receive training from Nankai University in foreign trade and investment Adam Rose, China Radio International (19 November 2013) [Chinese language]
ENERGY SECURITY: UN Climate Change Conference in Warsaw keeps governments on a track towards 2015 climate agreement, Press release, United Nations Climate Change Secretariat (23 November 2013) [PDF, 127KB]
It was the best of worlds, it was the worst of worlds. Doing the same thing and expecting a different result is insanity or hard learning. Some NGOs, self-appointed protectors of humanity and the planet, walked out. But at the end, a word change from “commitment” to “contributions” allowed the President of COP19, Marcin Korolec – just sacked from his job as Polish environment minister – to declare “Warsaw has set a pathway”. Keeping faith and hope alive, and going where the winds blow. There are other WMDs than CO2 molecules and success anywhere is subjective.
- Pollution pact from China to India shows rift: carbon and climate, Reed Landberg and Alex Morales, Bloomberg (24 November 2013)
- Modest deal breaks deadlock at UN climate talks, Associated Press, Washington Post (23 November 2013)
- US and Iran: Seven questions beyond the nuclear deal, Marwan Bishara, Opinion, al-Jazeera (24 November 2013)
GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Protests mount over Japan secrecy bill, AFP (23 November 2013)
Japan’s ruling party pushed a state secrets bill through its lower house despite large public protests and opposition, as well as concerns expressed by UN experts and rights groups. Critics say the bill threatens freedom of the press and whistleblowers, with up to a ten-year jail term for leaking information. The ruling coalition argues this is necessary and a step towards establishing Japan’s version of the U.S. National Security Council.
- Ruling coalition ramrods state secrets bill through lower house, Asahi Shimbun (26 November 2013)
- Independent UN experts seriously concerned about Japan’s special secrets bill, UN News Centre (22 November 2013)
- Ruling camp fends off rewrite of secrets bill, Ayako Mie, The Japan Times (21 November 2013)
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Case studies on flash flood risk management in the Himalayas, Arun B Shrestha and Sagar R Bajracharya (editors), International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (2013) [2.37 MB, PDF]
The scientific data shows that the occurrence and strength of flash floods are rising in the eight regional member countries (China, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar and Nepal) of the Hindu Kush Himalayas. These countries, in general, lack plans, strategies, and policies addressing particularly the issue of flash floods which take place with little or no warning. Therefore, the Hindu Kush Himalayan region requires institutional strengthening, flash flood modelling, hazard mapping, and the planning and development of various land use guidelines.
- Impact of climate change on Himalayan glaciers and glacial lakes: Case studies on GLOF and associated hazard in Nepal and Bhutan, Bajracharya, SR; Mool, PK; Shrestha, BR, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development and UNEP Regional Office Asia and the Pacific (2007)
- Predictions of changes of glacier mass balance in the Nepal Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau: A case study of air temperature increase for three glaciers, Yutaka Ageta, Tsutomo Kadota, Annals of Glaciology, vol. 16 (1992) [783 KB, PDF]
AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: PM must agree to spy ‘code of ethics’, Michael Bachelard, The Age (27 November 2013)
Own goals: 1. Courtesy of Edward Snowden, Indonesian rage over Australia intelligence boasting of its interception of President SBY’s phone. 2. PM Tony Abbott declines to apologize or explain. 3. Australian commentators lament Indonesian lack of ‘rationality’.
Results: 1. Indonesia ceases cooperation with Australia on defence, trade talks, and people smuggling. 2. Indonesia demands new intelligence accord with Australia. 3. “Doh! We need them more than they need us.”
- Who are the 10 Indonesians on Australian spies’ list? Katie Silver, ABC News (19 November 2013)
- Concessions to Jakarta are Tony Abbott’s only way to respond, Paul Kelly, The Australian (23 November 2013)
- NSA: Australia and US used climate change conference to spy on Indonesia, Ewen MacAskill and Lenore Taylor, Guardian (3 November 2013)
The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.