Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 17 January 2013

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 17 January 2013", NAPSNet Weekly Report, January 17, 2013, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/nautilus-peace-and-security-weekly-17-january-2013/

CONTENTS

DETERRENCE:  The city as a system: future conflict and urban resilience, David Kilcullen, Global Trends 2030 Blog (18 July 2012)

Conflict occurs increasingly in coastal cities in littoral and underdeveloped regions, especially Asia, and in highly networked, connected settings.  Improved infrastructure, urban governance, and integrated planning reduce insecurity more than urban military operations, let alone threats of nuclear weapons to destroy cities.

DPRK: Virtual suggestions: Google and North Korea PACNET, Pacific Forum, Center for Strategic and International Studies, (10 January 2013) [PDF, 68 KB]

North Korea remains unpunished for launching a satellite in December; even as there is some credible talk they are preparing for a nuclear test.  Tough sanctions have little effect when loosely applied.  Some groups see possibilities of reaching out to DPRK in meaningful ways.   Japan is setting a tougher line on North Korea and may also presage diplomatic divergence with a softer South Korean line on DPRK.

ENERGY SECURITY: New study estimates 4 million deaths from household cooking smoke each year,  Sean Bartlett, Press Release, Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves (13 December 2012)

For decades, proponents of “improved” woodstoves have spent countless money and expert skills to help poor people save wood, even if it was foraged free of any monetary cost. That these stoves, even if fortified with “gender empowerment” or enriched with carbon finance, condemned the users and others in or outside the homes to noxious smoke and fumes, hardly seemed to matter. Not many “improved” woodstoves were used, not many trees saved. Forests became farmlands and now farmlands shift from food to fuel and feed for those who can pay more.

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Japan: Abe’s new military drive to meet the China challenge—Analysis, Rajaram Panda, Eurasia Review (15 January 2013)

Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s hawkish policies are raising concern in the Asia region but will likely be welcomed by the US. Abe has called for a reinterpretation of the Constitution to allow for collective self-defense and the first military budget increase in 11 years. While Japan looks to strengthen its military, ROK President-elect Park has pledged to reduce the length of mandatory military service but has met resistance, particularly in regards to the budget required for such a reduction.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Global risks 2013: insight report, eighth edition, World Economic Forum (2013) [10.8 MB, PDF]

Global risks would meet with global responses in an ideal world, but the reality is that countries and their communities are on the frontline when it comes to systemic shocks and catastrophic events. In an increasingly interdependent and hyper-connected world, one nation’s failure to address a global risk can have a ripple effect on others. Resilience to global risks – incorporating the ability to withstand, adapt and recover from shocks – is, therefore, becoming more critical.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Disentangling the climate-conflict nexus: empirical and theoretical assessment of vulnerabilities and pathways, Jurgen Scheffran et al., Review of European Studies, Vol. 4, No. 5 (December 2012)

The prime objective of the framework suggested here is to combine quantitative empirical analyses, qualitative case studies, and modeling of the complex human-environment interactions. Models could build on a rich set of modeling tools from complexity science, multi-agent systems, social network analysis, and conflict assessment that extend previous data and experiences into future scenarios, covering different social, economic, and political contexts.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.

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