- DETERRENCE: The city as a system: future conflict and urban resilience
- DPRK: Virtual suggestions: Google and North Korea PACNET
- ENERGY SECURITY: New study estimates 4 million deaths from household cooking smoke each year
- GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Japan: Abe’s new military drive to meet the China challenge
- CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Global risks 2013: insight report
- CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Disentangling the climate-conflict nexus
DETERRENCE: The city as a system: future conflict and urban resilience, David Kilcullen, Global Trends 2030 Blog (18 July 2012)
Conflict occurs increasingly in coastal cities in littoral and underdeveloped regions, especially Asia, and in highly networked, connected settings. Improved infrastructure, urban governance, and integrated planning reduce insecurity more than urban military operations, let alone threats of nuclear weapons to destroy cities.
- Will East Asia mega-cities be secure and sustainable by 2050? Nautilus Institute
(October 2010) [PDF, 202KB]
- Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) attack, OSD-NIDA (Japan)-KIDA (ROK) scenario 141, Open Scenarios Repository, US Institute for Defense Analyses (2007) [scroll down to scenario 141 and click on ‘LPG’ link to open file]
- An anatomy of urban terror: lessons from Jerusalem and elsewhere, H. V. Savitch, Urban Studies, Vol. 42, No. 3 (March 2005) [PDF, 07.MB, subscription required]
- ‘The evolving urban system in North-East Asia’, S.C. Choe, pp. 498-519 in Emerging World Cities in Pacific Asia, eds. F.C. Lo & Y.M. Yeung, United Nations University Press (1996)
DPRK: Virtual suggestions: Google and North Korea PACNET, Pacific Forum, Center for Strategic and International Studies, (10 January 2013) [PDF, 68 KB]
North Korea remains unpunished for launching a satellite in December; even as there is some credible talk they are preparing for a nuclear test. Tough sanctions have little effect when loosely applied. Some groups see possibilities of reaching out to DPRK in meaningful ways. Japan is setting a tougher line on North Korea and may also presage diplomatic divergence with a softer South Korean line on DPRK.
- North Korea inside out: the case for economic engagement, The Asia Society Center on U.S.-China Relations and The University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (October, 2009) [PDF, 1.2 MB]
- Sanctions busting, Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland, North Korea: Witness to Transformation Blog, Peterson Institute for International Economics (12 June 2012)
- Abe to turn the screws on N. Korea over abductions, Asahi Shimbun (14 January 2013)
ENERGY SECURITY: New study estimates 4 million deaths from household cooking smoke each year, Sean Bartlett, Press Release, Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves (13 December 2012)
For decades, proponents of “improved” woodstoves have spent countless money and expert skills to help poor people save wood, even if it was foraged free of any monetary cost. That these stoves, even if fortified with “gender empowerment” or enriched with carbon finance, condemned the users and others in or outside the homes to noxious smoke and fumes, hardly seemed to matter. Not many “improved” woodstoves were used, not many trees saved. Forests became farmlands and now farmlands shift from food to fuel and feed for those who can pay more.
- As biofuel demand grows, so do Guatemala’s hunger pangs, Elizabeth Rosenthal, New York Times (5 January 2013)
- Air pollution now kills more people than high cholesterol, Brad Plumer, WonkBlog, Washington Post (20 December 2012)
GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Japan: Abe’s new military drive to meet the China challenge—Analysis, Rajaram Panda, Eurasia Review (15 January 2013)
Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s hawkish policies are raising concern in the Asia region but will likely be welcomed by the US. Abe has called for a reinterpretation of the Constitution to allow for collective self-defense and the first military budget increase in 11 years. While Japan looks to strengthen its military, ROK President-elect Park has pledged to reduce the length of mandatory military service but has met resistance, particularly in regards to the budget required for such a reduction.
- Japan to discuss self-defense rights in talks with Obama, Jeong Nam-ku, Hankyoreh (15 January 2013)
- Defense ministry urges caution about cutting military service period, Yonhap News (11 January 2013)
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Global risks 2013: insight report, eighth edition, World Economic Forum (2013) [10.8 MB, PDF]
Global risks would meet with global responses in an ideal world, but the reality is that countries and their communities are on the frontline when it comes to systemic shocks and catastrophic events. In an increasingly interdependent and hyper-connected world, one nation’s failure to address a global risk can have a ripple effect on others. Resilience to global risks – incorporating the ability to withstand, adapt and recover from shocks – is, therefore, becoming more critical.
- Global risk data platform, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) (2013)
- Global risks 2012: insight report, seventh edition, World Economic Forum (2013) [6.8 MB, PDF]
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Disentangling the climate-conflict nexus: empirical and theoretical assessment of vulnerabilities and pathways, Jurgen Scheffran et al., Review of European Studies, Vol. 4, No. 5 (December 2012)
The prime objective of the framework suggested here is to combine quantitative empirical analyses, qualitative case studies, and modeling of the complex human-environment interactions. Models could build on a rich set of modeling tools from complexity science, multi-agent systems, social network analysis, and conflict assessment that extend previous data and experiences into future scenarios, covering different social, economic, and political contexts.
- Impacts of sea level rise on the coastal zones of Egypt, P. Michael Link, Jasmin Kominek, and Jürgen Scheffran, University of Hamburg, Research Group Climate Change and Security, Working Paper CLISEC-25 (2012)
- Enabling strategic intelligence on energy and environmental security impacts and consequences, David Bray, International Design Team Meeting, Glasgow, Scotland (8-9 November 2007)
- Battling climate change and conflict in Pakistan, Natalie Nasrallah, International Network for Economics and Conflict, United States Institute of Peace (17 December 2012)
The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.
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