Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 14 November 2013

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 14 November 2013", NAPSNet Weekly Report, November 14, 2013,


DETERRENCE: Extended deterrence and strategic stability in Northeast Asia, B. Roberts, The National Institute of Defense Studies, Tokyo (9 August 2013)

The US aims to reinforce regional deterrence, especially BMD; pursue strategic stability with China & Russia; & cooperate with allies.  How much BMD is enough?  Should Japan contribute to conventional strike? Does the nuclear umbrella need more tailoring?  Can the US, Japan, China agree on strategic stability?

DPRK: A revised assessment of the North Korean KN-08 ICBM, John Schilling, Science and global security: the technical basis for arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation initiatives (4 November 2013)

North Korea’s KN-08 missile likely has a single digit (>5%) probability of completing its mission.  If DPRK wants to achieve U.S. and Russian standards of an 80% chance of success where P = 1 – (1-p)n or solving for n= ln(1-P)/ln(1-p), then North Korea would have to launch between 80 and 31 missiles – more than their entire arsenal. Yet the missiles, if launched, have a “quad nine” probability of committing national suicide.

ENERGY SECURITY: Concentrations of warming gases break record, Matt McGrath, BBC News (6 November 2013)

WMO reports that annual average atmospheric CO2 concentrations rose by 2.2 ppm last year to 393.1 ppm, compared to a 2.02 ppm average annual increase over the previous decade. The daily mark exceeded 400 ppm in May.  Also, IPCC corrected its emission estimates, which are anyway calculated rather than measured. Of course, every major storm is a good opportunity to beat breasts and blame “climate inaction” and the Haiyan taiphoon came just in time like Hurricane Sandy did last year.

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Opposition cries foul as South Korea moves to ban pro-North party, James Pearson and Ju-min Park, Reuters (5 November 2013)

The ROK Justice Ministry filed a petition with the Constitutional Court to disband a minority leftist party, finding that the party’s goals and activities “violate the constitutional democratic order”. This is the first such petition to be filed by a constitutional government in the ROK. The trial for one of the party’s lawmakers, accused of plotting the overthrow of the ROK government, has also begun.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Background paper: issues of vulnerability with specific reference to gender in the Asia Pacific – post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction consultations, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction – Regional Office for Asia and Pacific (2013) [189 KB, PDF]

Disaster risk reduction (DRR) concepts do not deal with the concerns of social vulnerability effectively. In the Asia-Pacific region, some agencies (within and outside the public sector) can be responsible for lessening the social vulnerabilities, including: the dedicated agencies of social security that are responsible for the wellbeing, community development and empowerment of the susceptible population; sectoral agencies of education, health, employment, rural and urban development, which are the primary agencies that plan, execute and examine the development strategies; and the agencies liable for disaster management.

AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Gateway to the Indo-Pacific: Australian defense strategy and the future of the Australia-U.S. alliance, Jim Thomas, Zack Cooper, and Iskander Rehman, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (9 November 2013)

CSBA, the home of the AirSea Battle Concept sees Australia as perhaps “the most special relationship of the 21st century” as “Australian and American areas of strategic priority overlap”. Four possible roles for Australia will enhance allied Asian deterrence capacities: Supportive Sanctuary, Indo-Pacific Watch Tower, Green Water Warden, and Peripheral Launchpad, each with new US basing and ADF submarine, bomber, ISR, and logistical requirements.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. 

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