Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 14 November 2013

• DETERRENCE: Extended deterrence and strategic stability in Northeast Asia
  
• DPRK: A revised assessment of the North Korean KN-08 ICBM
  
• ENERGY SECURITY: Concentrations of warming gases break record
  
• GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Opposition cries foul as South Korea moves to ban pro-North party
  
• CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Background paper: issues of vulnerability with specific reference to gender in the Asia Pacific – post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction consultations
  
• AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Gateway to the Indo-Pacific: Australian defense strategy and the future of the Australia-U.S. alliance
  

DETERRENCE: Extended deterrence and strategic stability in Northeast Asia, B. Roberts, The National Institute of Defense Studies, Tokyo (9 August 2013)

The US aims to reinforce regional deterrence, especially BMD; pursue strategic stability with China & Russia; & cooperate with allies.  How much BMD is enough?  Should Japan contribute to conventional strike? Does the nuclear umbrella need more tailoring?  Can the US, Japan, China agree on strategic stability?

• Brad Roberts on extended deterrence I: nuclear “tailoring,” S. Haggard, Slave to the Blog (4 November 2013)
• Brad Roberts on extended deterrence II: the missile defense component, S. Haggard, Slave to the Blog (5 November 2013)
• Mutual vulnerability with China a reality, not a choice, G. Kalecki, Union of Concerned Scientists, All Things Nuclear Blog (11 October 2013)
• U.S. shares responsibility for lack of dialog with china on nuclear weapons, G. Kalecki, Union of Concerned Scientists, All Things Nuclear Blog (16 October 2013)
• Japan finally backs U.N. statement against use of nuclear weapons, The Asahi Shimbun (22 October 2013)

DPRK: A revised assessment of the North Korean KN-08 ICBM, John Schilling, Science and global security: the technical basis for arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation initiatives (4 November 2013)

North Korea’s KN-08 missile likely has a single digit (>5%) probability of completing its mission.  If DPRK wants to achieve U.S. and Russian standards of an 80% chance of success where P = 1 – (1-p)ⁿ or solving for n= ln(1-P)/ln(1-p), then North Korea would have to launch between 80 and 31 missiles – more than their entire arsenal. Yet the missiles, if launched, have a “quad nine” probability of committing national suicide.

• Beijing seeking a break in the impasse over North Korea, Jane Perlez, New York Times Sinosphere (7 November 2013)
• Seoul’s envoy on N. Korean nukes to fly to Beijing for talks, Yonhap News Agency via GlobalPost (12 November 2013)

ENERGY SECURITY: Concentrations of warming gases break record, Matt McGrath, BBC News (6 November 2013)

WMO reports that annual average atmospheric CO2 concentrations rose by 2.2 ppm last year to 393.1 ppm, compared to a 2.02 ppm average annual increase over the previous decade. The daily mark exceeded 400 ppm in May.  Also, IPCC corrected its emission estimates, which are anyway calculated rather than measured. Of course, every major storm is a good opportunity to beat breasts and blame “climate inaction” and the Haiyan taiphoon came just in time like Hurricane Sandy did last year.

• IPCC corrects carbon figures in landmark UN climate report, Reuters, via Guardian (11 November 2013)
• Typhoon in Philippines casts long shadow over U.N. talks on climate treaty, Henry Fountain and Justin Gillis, New York Times (11 November 2013)

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Opposition cries foul as South Korea moves to ban pro-North party, James Pearson and Ju-min Park, Reuters (5 November 2013)

The ROK Justice Ministry filed a petition with the Constitutional Court to disband a minority leftist party, finding that the party’s goals and activities “violate the constitutional democratic order”. This is the first such petition to be filed by a constitutional government in the ROK. The trial for one of the party’s lawmakers, accused of plotting the overthrow of the ROK government, has also begun.

• Government seeks disbandment of left-wing political party, Park Byong-su and Kim Jeong-pil, Hankyoreh (6 November 2013)
• Cabinet gives nod to disbanding leftwing party, Chosun Ilbo (7 November 2013)
• Constitutional Court readies for UPP dissolution case, Arirang News (8 November 2013)

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Background paper: issues of vulnerability with specific reference to gender in the Asia Pacific – post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction consultations, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction – Regional Office for Asia and Pacific (2013) [189 KB, PDF]

Disaster risk reduction (DRR) concepts do not deal with the concerns of social vulnerability effectively. In the Asia-Pacific region, some agencies (within and outside the public sector) can be responsible for lessening the social vulnerabilities, including: the dedicated agencies of social security that are responsible for the wellbeing, community development and empowerment of the susceptible population; sectoral agencies of education, health, employment, rural and urban development, which are the primary agencies that plan, execute and examine the development strategies; and the agencies liable for disaster management.

• Asia-pacific synthesis report: consultations on the post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (2013) [652 KB, PDF]
• Study on disaster risk reduction, decentralization and political economy: The political economy of disaster risk reduction, Gareth Williams, Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, Global Mainstreaming Initiative for Disaster Risk Reduction, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (2011) [582 KB, PDF]

AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Gateway to the Indo-Pacific: Australian defense strategy and the future of the Australia-U.S. alliance, Jim Thomas, Zack Cooper, and Iskander Rehman, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (9 November 2013)

CSBA, the home of the AirSea Battle Concept sees Australia as perhaps “the most special relationship of the 21st century” as “Australian and American areas of strategic priority overlap”. Four possible roles for Australia will enhance allied Asian deterrence capacities: Supportive Sanctuary, Indo-Pacific Watch Tower, Green Water Warden, and Peripheral Launchpad, each with new US basing and ADF submarine, bomber, ISR, and logistical requirements.

• Interview, General Herbert J. “Hawk” Carlisle, Commander, Pacific Air Forces, Defense Writers Group, Center for Media and Security (29 July 2013) [PDF, 192KB]
• The US military presence in Australia: asymmetrical alliance cooperation and its alternatives, Richard Tanter, The Asia-Pacific Journal, Vol. 11, Issue 45, No. 1 ( 11 November 2013)
• Indonesia to review intelligence cooperation in light of US-Australia spying claims, Camelia Pasandaran, Jakarta Post (8 November 2013)

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.