Policy Forum

K.A. Namkung, Foreign Policy Adviser to New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson,and Leon V. Sigal, Director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Projectat the Social Science Research Council, write, “getting North Korea to reverse course now will not be easy, but a comprehensive approach is needed if the next administration is to give Pyongyang more of a stake in keeping deals. Italso would give Washington its first real leverage: U.S. steps could be withheld if – and only if – Pyongyang does not follow through on its commitments.”

Sourabh Gupta, Senior Research Associate at Samuels International Associates, Inc., writes, “it remains to be seen whether an economically-anemic Japan-India bilateral partnership with a top-heavy security component (albeit, at present, more in intent than content) will trump either country’s economically more densely-linked but strategically more circumspect relationship with China.”

Tong Kim, Research Professor with the Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University and an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University SAIS, writes, “Since President Lee took office, Pyongyang has been getting mixed signals from Seoul between engagement and confrontation, as it did from the Bush administration during its first six years between negotiation and regime change… Nobody can predict the timing or the likelihood of a demise of North Korea. That’s why it is important to resume dialogue and avoid a costly consequence political, economic and military from confrontation.”

Bo-hyuk Suh, Research Fellow at the Korea National Strategy Institute in Seoul, writes, “it is time inter-Korean relations should change, which would begin by respecting the agreement reached at the South-North summit meeting… The South Korean government should offer North Korea an unconditional dialogue to discuss inter-Korean cooperation, including the implementation of the October 4 Declaration.”

Jia Xijin, Associate Professor at the NGO Research Center at Tsinghua University, and Zhao Yusi, Project Assistant of NGO Research Center at Tsinghua University, write, “At present, China’s disabled people’s organizations face some challenges. First there are human resource issues… Second there is a registration problem for these organizations… Additionally there are other problems, such as a limited impact on public opinion, lack of publicity, insufficient funds, challenges in building the organization, and so on.”

Cheon Seongwhun, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), writes, “A laudable legacy that President Bush could leave for us may be to clarify all the confusion and suspicion about the Kim Jong-il regime’s nuclear intentions and by doing so, remove a root cause of policy struggle in the United States, South Korea, China, and others.”

Rudiger Frank, Professor of East Asian Economy and Society and Vice Director of the East Asian Institute at the University of Vienna, writes, “This time, we could see the Party taking over the role of a church, safeguarding ideology and the leadership of the two “Eternal” leaders, forming or organizing the collective leadership that seems to be the only logical step, and appointing a leader who will not be Great but visible. The recent homage to the Party’s monument could be the first step in the process of announcing this solution; the next Great Leader of North Korea could be Mother Party.”

Read a discussion of this article here.

Andrei Lankov, Associate Professor in Kookmin University, Seoul, and adjunct research fellow at the Research School of Pacifica and Asian Studies, Australian National University, write, “Despite all the grave doubts, people will not dare to openly say that they do not want to share the state with what they perceive as impoverished and under-educated Northerners. Nonetheless, one thing is clear: the enthusiasm about unification is waning, and sooner or later this quiet transformation of the public mind may have political effects.”

Victor Cha, Director of Asian studies at Georgetown University and a Senior Fellow at the Pacific Council, writes, “if North Korea keeps its word, John McCain or Barack Obama should inherit a situation in which U.S. and international nuclear experts are on the ground in North Korea learning more about Kim Jong Il’s nuclear secrets while slowly disabling and degrading his nuclear capabilities.”

Peter M. Beck, Professor at American University in Washington, D.C., writes, “there is a much greater likelihood that the North will come to resemble Burma rather than South Korea or China. A collective leadership system dominated by the military will likely emerge. However, it could be months or even years before the North’s elites sort out who is in and who is out of the new ruling junta. The military will clearly be in the driver’s seat. The only question is whether it will use a member of the Kim Royal Family as a hood ornament.”