In today’s Report:

I. United States

II. Republic of Korea

I. United States

1. Four-Party Peace Talks

Reuters (Carol Giacomo, “U.S. HOPES FOR KOREA PEACE MOVE NEXT MONTH,” Washington, 9/30/97) reported that US officials who met their DPRK, ROK and PRC negotiating partners in New York several weeks ago have concluded that the DPRK is stalling on peace talks until Kim Jong-il is formally vested as his country’s leader. The DPRK’s state media last week reported the start of a long-delayed process that could see Kim Jong-il finally assume power officially. One US official told Reuters that the DPRK may also be waiting to see how ROK elections set for December turn out, but he noted that such a strategy could be risky because a new government in the ROK may withdraw the peace talks proposal from the table, adding that the DPRK has been warned of this possibility. The US view has been colored by extensive discussions with PRC officials, including talks in New York last week between US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and PRC Foreign Minister Qian Qichen. One US official said that the most recent meetings on the four-party talks broke off after the DPRK negotiators made clear, “we have no flexibility on anything. We have no authority to reach any agreements. We want everything we ever said plus a little more.” While it remains possible that the DPRK wants to stall peace talks permanently, US officials believe it is more likely that the DPRK’s failing economic system will ultimately compel it to negotiate.

2. US Secretary of State on DPRK Policy

US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright: (“SECSTATE AT COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS SEPT. 30,” USIA Transcript, 10/1/97), commented on current US policy toward the DPRK. Albright stated: “North Korea is a dinosaur in the international system. The people are suffering there because of a government that is completely out of step with what is happening in the world. Clearly, the people there, large portions of them, are starving while, in fact, there continues to be support for their military. It has been our desire to try to do what we can to get reconciliation on the Peninsula and to move towards peace and a normal relationship with North Korea. There have been four-party talks in the works. As you know, last week the final preparatory talks that we were involved in did not succeed, mainly because the North Koreans are involved in trying to leverage food assistance from all of us in order to go on with the four-party talks. The United States is the largest contributor to alleviating their food problem, but we do it as a result of a response to a humanitarian appeal through the World Food Program, and not as a way to bargain into these talks. So we want these talks to go forward. We are waiting for Pyongyang to figure out that basically it is to their advantage to get back with the talks. Our policy is to try to get reconciliation as we can through the four-party talks on the Korean Peninsula.”

3. US Military Head to Visit

In today’s Report:

I. United States

II. Republic of Korea

I. United States

1. DPRK Sought Perot Assistance

The Associated Press (Robert Burns, “NKOREA PROPOSES PEROT ROLE IN TALKS,” Washington, 9/30/97) reported that last December the DPRK proposed that US billionaire Ross Perot act as an intermediary to address US questions about US citizens living in the DPRK, some of whom may be captured US servicemen from the Korean War. The DPRK, in an unofficial setting in New York in the midst of negotiations about a public apology for the submarine incident, suggested that Perot travel to Pyongyang to discuss the issue. Robert Egan, a New Jersey businessman who has regular contacts with DPRK diplomats in New York, was reported as saying that DPRK officials told him they wanted to open the door to talks on US POWs in exchange for not having to publicly apologize for the submarine incident, and that they wanted to work through Perot. US officials concluded that the offer was an empty gesture that would not help answer questions about US citizens in the DPRK, and persuaded Perot not to get involved. Neither side made the offer public at the time. Contacted Monday, Perot refused comment on the report.

2. Kim Jong-il Ascension

The Washington Post (Kevin Sullivan, “KIM TAKES FIRST STEPS TOWARD POWER,” Tokyo, 9/29/97) reported that most outside observers now concur that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il’s ascension to the official leadership posts left vacant by the 1994 death of his father, “Great Leader” Kim Il-sung, is imminent. Most analysts now believe Kim has scheduled his coronation for on or around October 10, the anniversary of the Korean Worker’s Party founding. Among the indications, the DPRK’s official news media has said that the country is brimming with celebration. “The whole country is vibrating with a new enthusiasm,” and “a wave of jubilation and emotion is now sweeping Korea,” it has said. The report stated that many believe the younger Kim has taken so long in becoming the formal head of state because he needed to consolidate military power, and in the past year he has replaced many older military leaders with younger ones believed to be more loyal to him. The report quoted Moon Chung-in, a professor of political science at Seoul’s Yonsei University, as saying that “titles are important” in Korean society and so Kim may be a more confident leader when he takes formal control. Moon added that Kim may interact more with ROK President Kim Young-sam’s successor, to be elected in December, as the DPRK took deep offense to Kim Young-sam’s refusal to send condolences on the death of Kim Il-sung. The report also noted that the DPRK’s preparations are taking place even as the country suffers a deepening famine caused by widespread food shortages.

3. DPRK on US Television

The Associated Press (David Bauder, “NKOREA HOT TOPIC FOR AMERICAN TV,” New York, 9/30/97) reported that the DPRK appears to be slowly opening its doors to US television network news correspondents. C

In today’s Report:

I. United States

II. Republic of Korea

I. United States

1. DPRK Named Threat to US

United Press International (“IRAN, IRAQ, N.KOREA TOP U.S. THREATS,” Washington, 9/29/97) reported that the US Department of Defense 1997 National Military Strategy assessment named the DPRK, along with Iran and Iraq, as the countries with “both the desire and means to challenge the United States militarily.” The document, the result of a year-long examination of the global strategic environment, warned that “numerous other regional powers” are emerging threats, but did not elaborate.

2. DPRK Nuclear Threat

The Associated Press (“IRAQ MAY STILL BE HIDING NUKES,” Vienna, Austria, 9/29/97) reported that Hans Blix, the outgoing head of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency, told the agency’s 41st annual conference Monday that it has been impossible to verify whether the DPRK has provided a complete inventory on its plutonium supplies. The plutonium inventories are monitored to try to determine whether nuclear material is being diverted from peaceful to military use. Delegates from the ROK, Japan and the European Union expressed concern over the DPRK’s refusal to comply with the agency. Only the US delegation, led by Secretary of Energy Federico Pena, spoke of any cooperation with DPRK. Blix also warned that Iraq may still be hiding nuclear weapons despite years of intensive inspections and monitoring.

3. Effects of DPRK Famine Conditions

Reuters (“U.S. AMBASSADOR CONCERNED ON NORTH KOREA,” Washington, 9/29/97) reported that US ambassador to the UN Bill Richardson said Sunday that massive starvation in the DPRK means its military forces are aggressive, and so the US must remain vigilant. “The situation is serious there. We have to watch it,” Richardson said on NBC television’s “Meet the Press” program. International relief organizations have documented “very, very massive starvation,” he said, adding that the food situation now was “desperate.” “We are concerned about aggressiveness on the part of the North Korean military,” Richardson said in response to questions. “But this is why we have four-party peace talks with us, the Chinese, South Korea, North Korea that would change the strategic outline in the Korean peninsula.” He added that despite the breakdown in the official four-party talks process, discussions continue “at a more junior level with the North Koreans” in New York.

4. ROK Position on Landmines

The Associated Press (“SKOREA TO EXTEND MINE MORATORIUM,” United Nations, 9/29/97) reported that ROK Foreign Minister Yoo Chong-ha, in a speech to the UN General Assembly Monday, announced that the ROK will extend indefinitely its moratorium on exporting anti-personnel mines, but added that the ROK cannot accept the international treaty banning those weapons because of tensions with the DPRK. Yoo said the ROK “has decided to extend for an indefinite period its moratorium on the export of anti-personnel land m

In today’s Report:

I. United States

II. Republic of Korea

III. People’s Republic of China

IV. Russian Federation

I. United States

1. DPRK Missile Test

The Associated Press (“U.S. WATCHES N. KOREA EXERCISES,” Washington, 9/26/97) and Reuters (“U.S. WATCHING NORTH KOREA MISSILE MOVES,” Washington, 9/26/97) reported that Navy Admiral Joseph Prueher, the head of the US Pacific Command, said Friday that the DPRK has conducted exercises with units that appear to support the No Dong missile, but has not yet deployed the weapon itself. “We have seen the troop deployments. We have not seen the deployment of the No Dong missile,” Prueher told reporters in an interview. “If they were deployed, they would be a potential threat to our forces in South Korea as well as to other nations adjacent to the area” because of their 620-mile range, Prueher said. The DPRK military conducted exercises with trucks and several units of troops that would be necessary to maintain and fire such a weapon, he said, but since no missile was seen, it wasn’t clear whether the exercise actually used real equipment, or whether “dummy” mockups were used. Prueher would not say where in the DPRK or exactly when the movements were conducted, but one US defense official, who asked not to be identified, said the maneuvers came over the summer. The official added that the US had contingency plans to deal with any deployment of the No Dong, but refused to say whether they might involve a military reaction such as a pre-emptive strike against launch facilities. The DPRK tested the No Dong once in 1993 but apparently has not tested it since. “We stay concerned about it and we watch it closely,” Prueher said of the DPRK program, while noting that the lack of aggressive testing allows him to be “not as concerned as I might be” about the missile’s potential use.

2. Huang Comments on DPRK Army Size

The Associated Press (“REPORT: N KOREA HAS LARGER ARMY,” Tokyo, 9/25/97) reported that Japan’s Kyodo News agency, quoting unidentified Japanese officials, said that top-level DPRK defector Huang Jang-yop told Japanese Foreign Ministry officials and investigators from Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto’s Cabinet in secret briefings in Seoul in July and August that the DPRK has more troops than outside estimates indicate. According to Kyodo, Huang told the officials that the Pyongyang government has 1.7 million regular troops ready to fight, considerably higher than the earlier estimates of 1.05 million. Japan’s Foreign Ministry denied any knowledge of such a meeting. Huang also reportedly told the Japanese that DPRK leaders are seeking US$10 billion from Japan as reparations for the state’s suffering under Japanese colonial rule and during World War II, and that, although DPRK leaders expect that any remuneration will require them first to enter peace talks, DPRK leader Kim Jong-il believes he can get more money out of Japan if the DPRK appears to be threatening war.

3. Four-Party Peace Talks

US Deputy State Department Spokesman James Foley (“STATE DEPARTMENT BRIEFING

In today’s Report:

I. United States

II. Republic of Korea

I. United States

1. Four-Party Peace Talks

United Press International (“U.S, S. KOREA: BALL IN N. KOREA COURT,” New York, 9/24/97) reported that US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and her ROK counterpart Yoo Chong-ha, meeting in New York Tuesday, agreed that the Korean peace process will be stalled until the DPRK makes the next move. An unnamed senior Clinton administration official said that the two ministers agreed that “the ball is in North Korea’s court.” The official added that discussions of US troop withdrawals can be included in the final peace talks, but the agenda cannot be about removing the troops.

Reuters (“NORTH KOREA SAYS U.S. MUST PROVIDE FOOD AID,” Seoul, 9/21/97) reported that the DPRK’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), in a report monitored in Tokyo Sunday, quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying that the question of a pullout of US troops from the Korean peninsula has always been on the table at the preliminary Korean peace talks. “We proposed from the beginning to include in the agenda of the talks the US troop pullout from South Korea and its vicinity, the conclusion of a peace agreement between the DPRK and the US and the discontinuation of North and South Korea’s import of military hardware from outside,” the statement said. The DPRK statement also said that the US was using food aid as a weapon in the talks, and that the US should now provide food aid as a sign of goodwill. “We intended that if the US clearly promised food supply to the DPRK, we would regard it as goodwill of the US and show flexibility in the debate on the agenda of the ‘four-way talks’,” the statement said.

2. Kim Jong-il Ascension

Reuters (“N.KOREA MEDIA SAYS KIM’S SUCCESSION BEGINS,” Tokyo, 9/25/97) reported that the DPRK’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported Thursday that the process to chose Kim Jong-il as the ruling party leader had started. “A wave of jubilation and emotion is now sweeping (North) Korea … because a process has started to elect the respected comrade Kim Jong-il as General Secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea Central Committee,” KCNA reported. “In the past three years when top party and state posts remained unoccupied, the Korean people were eagerly looking forward to the day when comrade Kim Jong-il would be officially acclaimed, regarding him as head of party and state. Their wish is being met at last,” KCNA said. The statement was the first outright acknowledgment Kim, who has controlled the country as the supreme commander of the military since the 1994 death of his father, Kim Il-sung, is now moving also to take over his father’s positions as general secretary of the party and state president. In July, the DPRK declared an end to a three-year mourning period for the elder Kim, paving the way for his son’s succession.

3. ROK Supports DPRK in IMF and World Bank

Reuters (“SEOUL SUPPORTS N.KOREA ENTRY TO IMF /WORLD BANK,” Hong Kon

In today’s Report:

I. United States

II. Republic of Korea

I. United States

1. Four-Party Peace Talks

The Associated Press (“KOREAN PEACE TALKS BREAK DOWN,” New York, 9/19/97) reported that the four-party talks to arrange a peace conference for the divided Korean peninsula broke down Friday after the DPRK refused to soften demands that the agenda include withdrawal of US troops from the ROK. The DPRK also insisted on a separate peace treaty with the US, excluding the ROK, and for firm guarantees of more food aid to stave off famine. A senior US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that no further preliminary talks were scheduled, and made clear that the US would not resume talks unless the DPRK signals it is willing to compromise. “We will be looking to the North Koreans for some serious sign,” he said. However, DPRK Vice Foreign Minister Kim Gye-gwan, the chief DPRK delegate, said his country simply needed more time. “The only thing we require here is patience and time to settle these issues,” he said.

The Associated Press (“KOREAN PEACE TALKS BREAK DOWN,” Washington, 9/22/97) reported that on Monday the US continued its criticism of DPRK behavior at the preliminary four-party talks last week, charging that Pyongyang “made no attempt to find common ground” during the two days of discussions. “The United States probed for flexibility and found none,” US State Department spokesman James Foley said. Foley said the US cannot agree to DPRK demands for a direct linkage between food assistance and the peace negotiations and for inclusion of the withdrawal of US troops from Korea as an agenda item, because the conditions would prejudge the talks’ results. “The negotiations are for negotiating, and we want to preserve the integrity of the negotiating process,” Foley said.

2. DPRK Prepares Missile Test

The Associated Press (“REPORT: N.KOREA TO TEST NEW MISSILE,” Tokyo, 9/22/97) reported that the DPRK is preparing to test its new “Rodong I” missile, according a report in the Japanese Yomiuri newspaper Monday. The missile, reportedly in the final stage of development, is capable of hitting Tokyo, the newspaper said, quoting Japanese and US military sources. Military analysts have said they believe a modified Rodong I missile could carry a nuclear warhead. Yomiuri said US military satellites have confirmed that the DPRK has installed an unspecified number of the intermediate-range missiles on movable launchers at one of its northwestern military bases. A Rodong I was test-fired into the Sea of Japan in 1995, but there have been no confirmed launches since then.

3. Kim Jong-il Ascension

The Associated Press (“NORTH KOREA’S MILITARY ENDORSES KIM,” Seoul, 9/23/97) reported that the DPRK’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) stated Tuesday that delegates from the DPRK’s army, navy and air force met in Pyongyang on Monday and unanimously endorsed Kim Jong-il’s ascension to leadership of the country’s ruling Workers’ Party. Those attending the meeting swore to defend Kim with “the spirit of human bombs and the spirit of suicidal attack,” KCNA said. Since the 1994 death of his father, Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il has been ruling the DPRK as the supreme commander of the country’s m

In today’s Report:

I. United States

I. United States

1. Four-Party Peace Talks

US State Department Spokesman Jaime Rubin (“STATE DEPARTMENT NOON BRIEFING, SEPTEMBER 17,” USIA Transcript, 9/17/97) described Tuesday’s US-DPRK bilateral meeting in New York as “useful and constructive. They were conducted in a business-like atmosphere. The entire range of bilateral issues were discussed.” Rubin said the DPRK reacted favorably to a US proposal to send a team of experts to investigate the DPRK food shortage. The US also informed the DPRK of its intention to survey US citizens’ financial claims against the DPRK, which “would be the initial step necessary to eventually resolve the issue of remaining frozen North Korean assets in the US.” Regarding the recent DPRK defections, Rubin said, “I’m not aware that came up in any significant way. I mean, as we have stated earlier, we regard the defector issue as not linked to the four-party peace process or to other issues. As I understand it, they did raise it, but I doubt it got into much detail.” Rubin also said the US proposed resumption of missile proliferation talks in October, and that the DPRK delegation “said they would get back to us.”

United Press International (“U.S., CHINA, S.KOREA SET FOR PEACE TALKS,” Seoul, 9/17/97) reported that US officials were set to meet ROK and PRC officials in bilateral talks in preparation for resumption of the preliminary four-party Korean peace talks in New York on Thursday and Friday.

2. DPRK Tidal Wave Recovery

Reuters (“FLOODS THREATEN NEW CALAMITY IN NORTH KOREA-U.N.,” Beijing, 9/17/97) reported that Christian Lemaire, Pyongyang representative of the United Nations Development Program, said Wednesday that some 40,000 DPRK peasants are waging a desperate but probably futile effort to rebuild a sea wall flattened by a tidal wave in order to prevent worse damage to a key grain-producing region. In August, a tidal wave whipped up by a typhoon destroyed a 200,000-hectare (494,000-acre) swath of rice paddy running inland from the wall. Lemaire said that the peasants, malnourished and working around the clock using only bare hands, in just two days had rebuilt a head-high wall of mud and rock along a 40 kilometer (24 mile) stretch of eastern coastline. However, he said the effort probably was in vain, because an unusually high sea tide was expected to wash over the primitive dike on Saturday or Sunday, depositing a fresh blanket of salt over what was once some of the DPRK’s most fertile rice paddy fields. “They’ve done what they can, but it’s not enough,” Lemaire said during a visit to Beijing.

3. US Position on Landmine Ban

Reuters (“U.S. LEFT OUT OF LANDMINE AGREEMENT,” Oslo, 9/17/97) reported that an international treaty to ban landmines was endorsed Wednesday by the 89-nation conference in Oslo, Norway, but the US refused to sign the accord. US delegation head Eric Newsom said that he was disappointed the conference had refused to accept a US-proposed compromise formula that met US security concerns. “Completion of this treaty is certainly a significant accomplishment. I think it would have been a much stronger treaty had they taken the steps so that the U

In today’s Report:

I. United States

I. United States

1. Four-Party Peace Talks

The AP-Dow Jones News Service (“U.S., N. KOREA DIPLOMATS MEET FOR BILATERAL TALKS,” Seoul, 9/16/97) reported that US and DPRK diplomats met Tuesday for bilateral talks in preparation for resumption of the preliminary four-party Korean peace talks in New York on Thursday. A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that the bilateral meeting had begun but refused to give other details. However, it was assumed that the DPRK would raise the issue of the US decision to grant asylum to the DPRK’s ambassador to Egypt, Chang Sung-kil, who defected last month with his brother, Chang Sung-ho, a diplomat on a trade mission to Paris.

US State Department Deputy Spokesman James Foley (“STATE DEPT. NOON BRIEFING, SEPTEMBER 16,” USIA Transcript, 9/16/97) confirmed that US and DPRK representatives were meeting Tuesday in New York, but did not comment on the meeting’s discussions. Foley added that US-ROK and US-PRC meetings would take place on Wednesday, in preparation for the second round of the preliminary four-party Korean peace talks set to begin Thursday at Columbia University in New York. Foley stated, “I don’t expect to provide any precise details about any of our bilateral meetings in advance of the Thursday talks.”

2. DPRK Famine Conditions

Reuters (“N.KOREA FAMINE WORST SINCE WW2 – GERMAN RED CROSS,” Bonn, 9/16/97) reported that the German Red Cross on Tuesday said some 10,000 children were dying of starvation every month in the DPRK, and called the country’s famine one of the worst the world has seen since World War II. German Red Cross spokeswoman Susanne Anger, who had just returned from two weeks in the DPRK, pleaded for more international food and medical aid to save lives. “An entire people are starving as the result of several natural disasters and a precarious economic situation,” Anger told a news conference in Bonn. “The mortality rate for children under seven has risen to 40 percent,” she said. “About 800,000 children are chronically undernourished and have severe developmental damage. Nine or ten-year-olds look like three or four-year-olds.” Anger said these calculations were made on the basis of the declining number of children attending kindergartens and information from other aid agencies. Anger added that the estimate by the international aid organization World Vision that at least half a million of the DPRK’s population of 22 million had already starved to death in the famine could not be ruled out. [Ed. note: See “DPRK Famine Conditions” in the September 15 Daily Report.]

Reuters (“N. KOREA EXPERTS DOUBT REPORT ON FAMINE DEATHS,” Bonn, 9/16/97) reported that some DPRK experts on Tuesday expressed doubt of World Vision’s estimate that between 500,000 and 2 million people have died in a famine in the DPRK, although experts agreed that the situation in the DPRK is dire and that massive food shortages are causing deaths. Brigitta Karlgren, country director for the World Food Program (WFP) in the DPRK, called into question data derived from a survey of people with first-hand information from numerous small

In today’s Report:

I. United States

I. United States

1. Four-Party Peace Talks

US Deputy State Department Spokesman James Foley (“STATE DEPARTMENT BRIEFING, MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15,” USIA Transcript, 9/15/97) confirmed that the second round of the preliminary four-party peace talks are set to begin Tuesday in New York. Foley had no further comment on the upcoming meetings.

2. DPRK Famine Conditions

The New York Times (Barbara Crossette, “NORTH KOREA FAMINE MAY BE KILLING 15 PERCENT IN TOWNS, SURVEY SAYS,” 9/10/97, A6) reported that Andrew Natsios, vice president of the international relief organization World Vision, said Sunday that an informal survey conducted for Korean-American organizations has found that about 15 percent of people in the DPRK’s towns and villages may be dying of starvation and famine-related diseases. The DPRK government was not informed of the survey, which reached some 400 individuals, and which was carried out by ethnic Koreans living on the PRC side of the PRC-DPRK border who can travel freely into the DPRK. Respondents told stories of unclaimed bodies being collected from village streets and coffins being reused to save wood. “Fifteen percent is a huge famine,” Natsios said in a telephone interview Sunday from his home in Washington. “And the thing that’s alarming is that those three provinces on the Chinese border where the survey was conducted are ones where the World Food Program has found that people are the best fed.” Natsios said that if these figures are reflective of the national picture, as many as half a million of the DPRK’s 22 million population may have died. In addition to calling for more food aid, World Vision and other private relief organizations also asking the secretive DPRK government to allow relief experts and reporters to travel freely in the country, especially to remote areas. “The North Korean government must be pressed to open the country up so that we can judge its needs,” he said.

Reuters (“N. KOREA REPORTS INCREASED CORN CROP,” Tokyo, 9/15/97) reported that the DPRK’s official Radio and Television Broadcasting, monitored in Tokyo by the Radiopress news service, said on Monday that the DPRK expects to have a 30 percent increase in its corn harvest this year. The broadcast came days after the UN Food and Agricultural Organization and World Food Program expressed “very serious alarm” over the food shortage in the DPRK, where a drought and typhoon have aggravated two years of flooding. [Ed. note: See “DPRK Food Production Crisis” in the US section of the September 12 Daily Report.]

3. ROK Returns DPRK Body

Reuters (“S.KOREA SENDS HOME BODY OF N. KOREAN SOLDIER,” Panmunjom, ROK, 9/15/97) reported that the ROK on Monday returned to the DPRK the body of a DPRK soldier shot on the heavily fortified demilitarized zone last Tuesday. At the border village of Panmunjom, a six-member honor guard from the US-led UN Command handed over the coffin to six DPRK guards. The ROK Defense Ministry has said the soldier was shot after he neared the ROK border and aimed his rifle at ROK border guards. The US, ROK and DPRK have all played down