Schedule: East Asia Energy Futures (EAEF)/Asia Energy Security Project

East Asia Energy Futures (EAEF)/Asia Energy Security Project

Energy Paths Analysis/Methods Training Workshop

4 to 7 November, 2003

Liu Institute for Global Issues, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada


4 November

Days’ Topics:

Opening Remarks and Presentation of Meeting Goals and Schedule

Country Energy Sector Update

Special Topics


9:00-9:30             Registration, Tea/Coffee

Welcoming Remarks and Presentation of Workshop Goals and Schedule

9:30-9:45         Welcoming Remarks: Professor Paul Evans, Liu Institute for Global Issues, University of British Columbia

9:45-10:10       Welcoming Remarks and Goals of Workshop: Dr. Peter Hayes, Executive Director, Nautilus Institute, Berkeley, California

10:10-10:20     Presentation of Workshop Schedule and Logistics: David Von Hippel and Scott Bruce, Nautilus Institute


Session I: Country Energy Sector Updates

Dr. David von Hippel, Chair

10:20 – 14:30

Presentations in this session will be delivered by a representative from each country attending, and will be designed to update the Workshop on energy sector activities in their country.  Each presenter has been requested to provide summaries of the following subjects for their country:

  1. Recent changes in the energy sector.
  2. The latest (official or unofficial) energy outlook (brief).
  3. National concerns regarding energy and environmental security, and presentation of national plans (in general) to address those concerns.
  4. National interest in or participation in regional initiatives for sharing energy resources.
  5. Special topics of concern to the nation in the area of the energy sector, the environment (as it relates to energy), and energy security.

Suggested presentation length: 20 to 30 minutes, with an additional 10 to 20 minutes for questions.  Titles shown are currently tentative.


10:20-11:00     Prof ZHANG Aling and Prof. WANG Yanjia: “Update on Energy Sector Activities and Plans in China”

11:00-11:40            Ms. Kae TAKASE: “Update on Energy Sector Activities and Plans in Japan”

11:40-12:20     Dr. Victor KALASHNIKOV and Dr. Alexander OGNEV:  “Update on Energy Sector Activities and Plans in the Russian Far East”


12:20-13:30            LUNCH


13:30 – 14:10   Dr. KANG Jungmin, Prof. Shin Eui-soon, and Dr. CHUNG Woo-jin: “Update on Energy Sector Activities and Plans in the Republic of Korea”

14:10 – 14:50   Mr. Shagdar BATRYENCHIN and Ms. Chogdon OUYNCHIMEG, “Update on Energy Sector Activities and Plans in Mongolia”


14:50-15:00            BREAK


Session 2: Presentations on Special Topics Related to Regional Energy Use 

Prof. Yanjia Wang, Chair

15:00 – 15:30   Mr. Kevin (Jian Jun) TU, “Modeling China’s Energy Future with Application of CIMS”

15:30 – 16:00   Dr. David VON HIPPEL, “The DPRK Energy Sector: Current Status and Options for the Future”

16:00 – 16:30   Dr. Michael MARGOLICK (Vice President, Nai Kun Wind Development Inc.), “Wind Energy Technology: Trends and Applications in East Asia”

16:30 – 17:00   Dr. Peter HAYES, “Recent Events on the Korean Peninsula, and Implications for Regional Energy Collaboration” (Presentation and Discussion)

17:00 – 17:10   Discussion of Agenda for Next Day, and Logistics Announcements

17:20               End of First Day of Workshop–Depart directly from Workshop on Bus Tour of Vancouver


5 November

Presentations of Progress on LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) Data Sets

Regional Energy Sharing Alternatives

Energy Paths Discussion

Begin LEAP Training

Begin 9:30 (Tea and Coffee Available)

Session 3: Presentation of Existing LEAP Data Sets and Analyses

Prof. Shin Eui-soon, Chair

Presentations by a representative from each country that has already developed a LEAP data set can include the following subjects:

  1. A summary of the status of the LEAP modeling efforts including: current status of the data collection, collection methodology, key data sources and key data gaps, problems encountered in gathering data, concerns of the country team regarding data availability and quality, and other topics.
  2. Business as Usual (BAU) energy paths presentations:

BAU path design and assumptions — What were the central sources used?  What are the overall assumptions about demographics and economics in the country in the future?  Do any of the assumptions have regional implications?

Reasonableness of BAU paths—are the assumptions made reasonable given recent trends in the country?

3.      “National” alternative paths and scenarios (descriptions of initial/proposed approaches, and of results as available)


9:30 – 10:00     Dr. KIM Hoseok, “The Application of the LEAP Software Tool to Energy Sector Analysis in the Republic of Korea”

10:00 – 10:30   Dr. GU Alun, “China Energy Future: LEAP Tool Application in China”

10:30 – 11:00   Ms. Lea PRINCE, “Questioning Inevitability of Energy Pathways: Alternative Energy Scenario for California”

11:00-11:15    Break

11:15 – 11:45   Dr. Victor KALASHNIKOV, Dr. Alexander OGNEV, and Mr. Ruslan GOULIDOV, “The Application of the LEAP Software Tool to Energy Sector Analysis in the Russian Far East: Progress Report”

11:45 – 12:15   Dr. David VON HIPPEL, “Application of LEAP in Japan: The “Power Switch” Energy Path”

12:15-13:00            LUNCH

13:00 – 13:30   Dr. David VON HIPPEL, “Regional Energy Cooperation Options: Costs and Benefits” [Overview presentation that briefly introduces on the relative benefits and costs of regional grid connections, gas pipelines, investments in improved LNG import facilities, end use efficiency increases in gas/electricity end-uses, and other regional initiatives]

13:30 – 13:50   Dr. Peter HAYES, “Scenarios vs Paths: What’s the Difference and Why Do Them Next Time We Meet?”

13:50 – 14:45   Energy Paths Discussion (Part 1): Preliminary Discussion of Energy Paths Approaches and Options, and Integration of National Paths into Regional Framework for Evaluation of Regional Benefits and Costs of Resource Sharing; Discussion of Collaborative Approach to Continuing Project.  Discussion led by Peter HAYES and David VON HIPPEL



Begin Training in LEAP2003 Energy/Environment/Economic Planning and Policy Analysis Software: Lectures and Hands-on Training through Exercises (Lead Trainer, David Von Hippel)

15:10 – 15:30   Lecture: Introduction to the LEAP2003 Software and LEAP Training Exercises

15:30 – 17:30            Work as Individuals or in Groups of 2 or 3 on LEAP Training Exercises

17:30             End of Second Day of Workshop

17:40               Depart for Hotel

6 November

Continue LEAP Training and Applications


Begin 9:30 AM (Tea and Coffee Available)

Morning and Afternoon: Continue training with LEAP2003 Software.  Some participants will continue with Exercises, some will begin/continue work on their own data sets.  Individualized assistance will be provided for all participants.  Short presentations will be offered occasionally on special topics related to application of LEAP and/or development of Energy Paths.   Informal presentations of work in progress by workshop participants, as well as informal group discussions on any pertinent topics, are very much encouraged.  One short presentation (scheduled as appropriate) will be as follows:

Lea PRINCE “Examination, Estimation & Extrapolation: Compiling Data on a Regional Level”

Lunch Approximately 12:30 – 13:15

Demonstration (during lunch) of QUEST Modeling Software by Professor John ROBINSON, Sustainable Development Research Initiative on Institute of Resources, Environment and Sustainability, and Department of Geography, UBC


Breaks Scheduled as Appropriate

17:30             End of Third Day

17:40             Depart for Hotel


7 November

Continue LEAP Training and Applications

Discussion on Continuing Collaboration

Workshop Closing


Begin 9:30 AM (Tea and Coffee Available)

Continue LEAP Training and Applications: Most, if not all, participants will probably have sufficiently completed the Training Exercises by this time, and will be working with their country data sets.  As in previous days, informal presentations and discussions will be encouraged, and short presentations may be provided to clarify specific topics in the application of LEAP2003.


Lunch Approximately 12:30 – 13:15

Breaks Scheduled as Appropriate

15:30 – 17:00  Discussion of Next Steps in Regional Collaborative Research; Discussion led by Peter HAYES

17:00                      Closing and Presentation of Training Certificates

17:30               End of Workshop

17:40               Depart for Hotel


19:00               GROUP DINNER AT Water St. Café