Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 26 September 2013

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 26 September 2013", NAPSNet Weekly Report, September 26, 2013,

A North Korean soldier stands on the river bank in Sinuiju, North Korea, opposite the Chinese border city of Dandong. A much-anticipated meeting between North Korea and South Korea, which had been set for yesterday, collapsed before it even began. Photograph: APDETERRENCE: Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse, B. Bennett, RAND, RR-331-SRF, Santa Monica, 2013

Bennett examines the implications of an assumed DPRK government collapse at an unspecified time. He concludes that the US-ROK must prepare to intervene militarily in the North to unify Korea when such collapse occurs, to deliver aid, stop fighting, to demilitarize the DPRK, secure WMD, and avoid collision with Chinese forces.

Korean train- Moscow - Pyongyang

DPRK: China Bans Certain North Korean Exports for Fear of Weapons Use, Jane Perlez, New York Times, (24 September 2013)

North Korea’s demonstrations of sovereignty incur costs borne by average North Koreans and their senior leadership appears willing to pay that price.  China promulgated 236 pages of items in the nuclear, missile, chemical and biological fields that are prohibited from being transferred to North Korea. North Korea also detained a Russian fishing vessel even though Russia just opened a rail line between Russia and Rajin port.

IPCC Chairman PauchuriENERGY SECURITY: IPCC Head Warns on Himalayan Melting Glaciers, Pilita Clark, Financial Times (22 September 2013)

Acknowledging the limitations in scope of the forthcoming IPCC report, a confident Chairman Pauchari reaffirmed his belief that rational people and leaders will respond appropriately to the soon to be released scientific assessment and responds to climate change skeptics and the campaign to discredit the report before it is released. Lord Stern calls climate change dissenters “irrational” and opines,“ we need to approach the issue as one of risk management.”

ROK DPRK flagsGOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: With Reunion Cancellation, Seoul Rejects Tourism Talks, Kim Hee-jin, Joongang Ilbo (24 September 2013)

Relations between the ROK and DPRK have stalled again, with the DPRK postponing inter-Korean reunions and the ROK stating that it will not discuss the reopening of the Mt. Keumgang resort until reunions are rescheduled. The DPRK blamed the ROK media’s claims that “trustpolitik” had changed the regime’s behavior and criticized the arrest of a ROK lawmaker with alleged DPRK ties. Six party talks don’t appear likely anytime soon, despite pressure from the PRC.

Photo: This beach cabana business, which was in front of the seawall, was destroyed by Hurricane Sandy. Photo by Liz Roll/FEMAPhoto: This beach cabana business, which was in front of the seawall, was destroyed by Hurricane Sandy. Photo by Liz Roll/FEMACLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Public Risks and the Challenges to Climate-Change Adaptation: A Proposed Framework For Planning in the Age of Uncertainty, Philip Berke and Ward Lyles, A Journal of Policy Development and Research, vol. 15, no. 1 (2013)

Public risks pose the generic difficulty of creating and sustaining public support and action. Devising strategies for dealing with public risks generated by climate change requires a rethinking of the traditional predict-and-plan approach used in most of contemporary planning practice. The accelerating rates of change and increasing levels of future uncertainties associated with climate change are not well suited to the traditional approach. The risks are too uncertain, diffuse, temporally remote, and indirect to assign blame and attach responsibility.

fires on sumatraCLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITYHaze: Asia’s New Weapon, Robert Hathaway, The Globalist, September 8, 2013

Haze may be the new weapon of mass destruction. Smoke from burning forests and peat on Sumatra moved east to envelope Singapore and Malaysia. Until state oversight capacity is enhanced, Indonesia will almost certainly fail in surmounting its haze challenges even when the political will exists. Yet top-down responses are seldom sufficient for dealing with a threat of this nature. Nearly every country in the region is upping its arms spending.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. 

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