Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 25 April 2013

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Deterrence imageDETERRENCE: The great strategic triangle, Alexei Arbatov and Vladimir Dvorkin, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (April 2013) [PDF, 2.6MB]

China’s nuclear forces may be unable to retaliate and are likely preemptively oriented.  Its 2nd-strike capability is only viable if it has hidden missile reserves. Limits on intermediate range forces, US-China-Russian BMD sharing, and a missile launch Asia-Pacific Joint Data Exchange Center might stabilize the triangle.

Image source: Getty ImagesDPRK: U.S. tells China its growing Asia Pacific military force is ‘stabilizing’, PressTV (23 April 2013)

U.S. and Chinese senior leaders met, exchanged positions and are likely de-conflicting strategies after the Secretary of State and China’s President met earlier this month.  The Senior U.S. military officer, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was hosted by his Chinese counterpart.  China’s lead negotiator for the Six Party Talks was in D.C. at the same time underscoring the degree to which North Korea has pushed the two countries together.

Image source: Sam Panthaky/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesENERGY SECURITY: Europe is becoming a green-energy basket case, Editorial Board, Washington Post (21 April 2013)

It’s the Earth Day 2013, with yet another round of beating breasts while taking a beating. Is it the beginning of the end for the renewables industry and carbon permit scheme in Europe, and are the lights going to go out, or is it the end of the beginning phase and renewables will be born again with new gusto and feverish fervour? For power-short counties, grid-PV is in principle a viable alternative on a large scale, but is that also fraught with risks not yet encountered – trade restrictions, corruption, limited institutional capacity to plan, budget and execute?

Image source: KyodoGOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: N. Korea accepts China’s offer for dialogue: Japanese newspaper, Yonhap News (20 April 2013)

The DPRK has indicated its willingness to meet with senior Chinese officials to discuss easing tensions in the region, although it has rejected dialogue with the US. While tensions appear to ease with the DPRK, they are rising between China, the ROK and Japan over a visit by a record number of Japanese lawmakers to Yasukuni Shrine, resulting in the cancellation of a trip by the ROK Foreign Minister, and continued tensions over the Senkakus/Diaoyu.

Image source: www.portstrategy.com CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Enhancing the resilience of seaports to a changing climate: research synthesis and implications for policy and practice, Darryn McEvoy and Jane Mullett, RMIT University and NCCARF, Australia (2013)

Acting on future climate risks to seaports, particularly bridging the divide between the climate science and adaptation action, is a challenging endeavour. It involves matching output from the evolving climate models with the information needs of different port ‘end users’ in order to consider elements at risk at the local scale. As such, a hybrid approach involving multi-actor dialogue – in support of co-generation of knowledge – is necessary to underpin an effective assessment process.

Image source: HiMY SYeD / photopiaCLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Redirect military expenditure to ensure a sustainable future, Kumi Naidoo, Guardian Sustainable Business Blog (17 April 2013)

Last year $1.75tn was spent on the world’s military. People are entitled to question whether this is money well spent to ensure security. Climate change and a carbon-intensive economy are already responsible for 5 million deaths each year. More than $3.5tn is spent annually on the world’s military and on subsidising fossil fuels. We can no longer allow governments to spend recklessly on the wrong things, when so many right things remain neglected.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. 

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