- DETERRENCE: Preparing for the Helsinki conference on a Middle East Nuclear and WMD-free zone
- DPRK: N. Korea tried to ship weapons to Syria, diplomats say
- ENERGY SECURITY: Obama victory reopens door to emissions curbs and possible carbon tax
- GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Tokyo’s Ishihara joins Osaka mayor to fight election
- CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Climate change and eHealth: a promising strategy for health sector mitigation and adaptation
- CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Climate and social stress: implications for security analysis
See this week’s blog: Sins in the name of children, from our Energy Security contributor, Nikhil Desai.
DETERRENCE: Preparing for the Helsinki conference on a Middle East Nuclear and WMD-free zone, Paul Ingram, BASIC Istanbul Roundtable report, Middle East WMDFZ Conference (25 October 2012) [PDF, 0.5MB]
The NPT nuclear weapon states and South Asia nuclear armed states should offer negative security guarantees to all states party to a Middle East WMDFZ, not only not to use nuclear weapons, but also not to threaten or attack them with conventional weapons.
- The 2012 Conference on a Weapons of Mass Destruction-Free Zone in the Middle East, A special roundtable report, Bilal Y. Saab, Ed, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (July 2012) [PDF, 5.4MB]
- The Middle East WMD-Free Zone Conference: A reset for regional arms control? Dalia Dassa Kaye, The Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 19, No. 3 (2012) [Subscription required, PDF, 0.2MB]
- Only ‘the nuclear option’ can work against Iran, former IDF chief says: But, Dan Halutz tells the Sunday Times, ‘I hope Bibi is not mad enough to think about it,’ Aaron Kalman, Times of Israel (11 November 2012)
DPRK: N. Korea tried to ship weapons to Syria, diplomats say, France 24 (14 November 2012)
North Korea has been unusually active with Japan, Mongolia, Syria, Egypt and Iran. Several interactions were likely mining-related but DPRK’s banking system access is tightly proscribed so funds transfers are likely problematic. Syrian FAJr-3 missiles are the same size, payload and weight as some North Korean missiles and approximate the limited damage North Korea can do to the very northern exurbs of Seoul given a range of 40 kilometers.
- Mongolia, DPRK pledge to boost cooperation, Qiang, Hou Editor, Xinhua News Agency (19 November 2012)
- DPRK economic delegation visits Egypt, North Korea Leadership Watch, (17 November 2012)
- Iran, North Korea determined to boost trade exchanges, Islamic Republic News Agency, (17 November 2012)
ENERGY SECURITY: Obama victory reopens door to emissions curbs and possible carbon tax, Eric Hand, Ivan Semeiuk, Jeff Tollefson, Meredith Wadman and Nature magazine, Scientific American (13 November 2012)
Ten days after the US elections, ten days before the end of Doha COP. Two years to the next US elections and four years for Obama to plan for a name in history. He promises a conversation “to find out what more we can do to make short-term progress in reducing carbons”. Managing expectations, designing a triage, is the name of the game. Jim Kim comforts us, “A 4°C warmer world can, and must be, avoided – we need to hold warming below 2°C.” Carbon taxes and anti-carbon subsidies are sold as silver bullets. Lies told often enough become beliefs; secret of investment banking.
- Carbon fee from Obama seen viable with backing from exxon, Mark Drajem, Bloomberg Business Week (16 November 2012)
- Washington weighs moving climate politics beyond UNFCCC, EurActiv (16 November 2012
- Climate change report warns of dramatically warmer world this Century, The World Bank (18 November 2012)
by Nikhil Desai – Energy Security Contributor Every climatic disaster is an opportunity to demonise fossil fuels and whip up guilt, anxiety, moral pretensions, and political…
GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Tokyo’s Ishihara joins Osaka mayor to fight election, Keiko Ujikane, Monami Yui and Takashi Hirokawa, Bloomberg (19 November 2012)
Former Tokyo Governor Ishihara and Osaka Mayor Hashimoto merged parties, pledging to be a “third force” and increasing the potential for the nationalist Japan Restoration Party to win numerous seats in the next election. Ishihara has argued that Japan should “simulate” having nuclear weapons to boost international influence. ROK opposition candidates Ahn and Moon will select a single candidate between them and pledged to cooperatively seek reform.
- Ishihara: Non-nuclear states lack international clout, Asahi Shimbun (21 November 2012)
- Liberal candidates’ declaration seeks more inclusive politics and change of administrations, Song Chae Kyung-hwa and Seok Jin-hwan, Hankyoreh (19 November 2012)
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Climate change and eHealth: a promising strategy for health sector mitigation and adaptation, Asa Holmner et al., Glob Health Action, vol. 5 (2012) [297 KB, PDF]
Health information technology (eHealth) has the potential to make health care a greener business. In addition, it also helps societies significantly adapt and reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Many promising examples of eHealth adaptation strategies are available, including: the use of telemedicine and mobile technology in anthropogenic and natural disasters; provision of point-of-care diagnostic tools; and strengthening of public health surveillance using mobile technologies.
- Climate change and health – building resilience through eHealth, Åsa Holmner Rocklöv, University Hospital of Northern Sweden (2012) [1.02 MB, PDF]
- Making policy on ICTs and climate change in developing countries, Angelica Valeria Ospina & Richard Heeks, Canada’s International Development Research Centre (2012) [1.82 MB, PDF]
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Climate and social stress: implications for security analysis, Report Brief, National Research Council (November 2012) [PDF, 277KB]
Climate change can be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of potentially disruptive environmental events. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by ways in which these events may cascade. Climate events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of global systems to manage. It makes sense for the intelligence community to apply a scenario approach to potentially disruptive events that are expectable but not truly predictable.
- Climate and social stress: implications for security analysis, John D. Steinbruner, Paul C. Stern, and Jo L. Husbands, (eds.), National Research Council (November 2012)
- Turn down the heat: why a 4°c warmer world must be avoided, World Bank (November 2012)
- Amid budget scrutiny, CIA shutters climate center, Annie Snider, Greenwire (19 November 2012)
The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships. Subscribe to NAPSNet to receive free weekly email reports Editor