Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 21 March 2013

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 21 March 2013", NAPSNet Weekly Report, March 21, 2013, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/nautilus-peace-and-security-weekly-21-march-2013/

See today’s Policy Forum: Tactically Smart, Strategically Stupid: Simulated B52 Nuclear Bombings in Korea, by Peter Hayes, Deterrence contributor

 

DETERRENCE:  DPRK has no idea of negotiating with U.S. unless it rolls back its hostile policy towards it, KCNA, Pyongyang (16 March 2013)

The DPRK’s nuclear weapons serve as an all-powerful treasured sword for protecting the sovereignty and security of the country. Therefore, they cannot be disputed even in the least as long as the U.S. nuclear threat and hostile policy persist…

DPRK: Simulating closed regimes with agent based models, R. Bhavanani, D. Backer, and R. Riolo, Complexity  vol. 14 (July 2008) [PDF, 198KB]

Applying a complex adaptive system approach to North Korea explains some aspects of what may seem like random decision-making. It may also predict a more aggressive leader.  North Korea’s Central Bureau of Statistics tells a straightforward tale of food security, provides functional insights into North Korea and indicates Pyongyang is sharing weal and woe with the provinces instead of taking all of North Korea’s foodstuffs.

ENERGY SECURITY:  Fact sheet: President Obama’s blueprint for a clean and secure energy future, The White House Office of the Press Secretary (15 March 2013)

Obama promises clean energy, but EPA backtracks, while Congressional Democrats start talking carbon tax. He also promises support for nuclear exports, and a Japanese analyst proposes a “U.S.-Japan energy security alliance based on the two pillars of nuclear power generation in Japan and exports of U.S. LNG to Japan”. Current Japanese vulnerability to energy markets and North Korean nuclear weapon capability are both products of nuclear revelries of the past.

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Performance against military exercises, Hankyoreh (13 March 2013)

Protesters in Seoul demonstrated against joint US-ROK military exercises, calling for dialogue between the US, ROK and DPRK. The DPRK has engaged in state-wide war drills in response, an “unusual” scale of exercise. Former US basketball star Dennis Rodman says the DPRK’s Kim seeks peace and that ‘basketball diplomacy’ may be a strategy to pursue. China and the US appear to be forging a stronger relationship.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Water supply risks and urban responses under a changing climate: a case study of Hong Kong, Liang Yang, Chunxiao Zhang, Grace W. Ngaruiya, Pacific Geographies, vol. 39 (2013) [PDF, 4.87 MB]

Water system management is both complex and politically difficult, requiring expert knowledge available for decision-making. In order to enrich the response capacity in Hong Kong, it is necessary to understand the characteristics of water supply system and related risks. Moreover, shortcomings need to be identified in current water supply system of Hong Kong which is most likely to trigger risks, in particular in the context of climate change.

AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: China counter-pivots on Myanmar, David I Steinberg, Asia Times (18 March 2013)

Born in the shadow of China, nurtured in neutralism during the Cold War, and now intent of gleaning assistance from all sources Myanmar will likely return to the policy that had served it well before: a balance among all external interests that could subvert its autonomy. A more modern form of neutralism in the post-Cold War era is Myanmar’s likely course. The China lesson is one all foreign states should heed as they enhance their Myanmar relations.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. 

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