Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 10 July

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 10 July", NAPSNet Weekly Report, July 10, 2014,

UntitledDETERRENCE: Global Hawk Needs USD1.9 Billion in Upgrades before U-2 can Retire, Marina Malenic, Jane’s Defence Weekly, June 8, 2014

The US Air Force can afford only one high altitude reconnaissance platform.  It is committed to the unmanned Global Hawk and will retire the venerable (piloted) U2 fleet in next few years. North Korea’s tiny primitive drone crashed in the ROK.


DPRK: People’s Republic of China and Republic of Korea Joint Statement, (3 July 2014) [Chinese language and video]

North Korea likely sees a dynamic strategic landscape after China’s President visited South Korea.  The Joint Statement that President Park and President Xi released make it clear that China’s relationship with South Korea is deep, broad and heavily invest in human capital.  Suth Korea will have a corps of leaders who understand China and a corps of businesses who owe their business to China.  However, North Korea appears to be making the best of it by making peace overtures while ceding any possible recriminations for failure to the South.  China and South Korea also agreed to a joint documentary on Japan’s Toyotomi Hideyoshi’s invasion of Korea in 1592 during the Ming dynasty.  This is likely South Korea’s first step toward re-writing the history of the 1950-1953 Korean War – and China’s relationship with North Korea while burnishing South Korea’s Admiral Yi Sun-shin and his turtle boats. SECURITY: The Coming Climate Crash: Lessons for Climate Change in the 2008 Recession, Henry M. Paulson, Jr., Opinion, New York Times (21 June 2014)

Uncle Paulson is starting an investor club – to bet on a bubble, an insurance policy we never get to collect on. He says “Hope is not a strategy.” But that is what he is proposing – put a punitive carbon tax and HOPE that it doesn’t lose jobs AND avoids all those things he scares us of. The poor will die of carbon tax before they die of climate change. AND CIVIL SOCIETY: The Changing order of Northeast Asia, Yi Yong-in and Choi Hyun-june, Hankyoreh (7 July 2014)

Diplomatic events in recent weeks—China’s Xi visiting Seoul before Pyongyang, Japan’s lifting of sanctions against the DPRK in return for an investigation into the Japanese abduction issue, among others—have some seeing a shift in regional balances. Others argue that these are minor events and do not signal any significant change, as issues such as the DPRK nuclear threat will continue to have a greater influence on relations.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Creating New Norms on Climate Change, Natural Disasters and Displacement: International Developments 2010 – 2013, Jane McAdam, Refuge, vol. 29, no. 2 (2014) [160 KB, PDF]

The creation of a new international treaty on climate change and displacement now seems even more unlikely than ever before. On the one hand, this is because of enhanced understanding within the international community about the conceptual difficulties involved in attributing displacement to the impacts of climate change alone. On the other hand, it stems from states’ reluctance to assume new legal obligations in the protection context – in other words, a lack of political will.

Addressing Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific: Final Report, Asian Development Bank, Manila (March 2012)

Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict in South Asia: Rising Tensions and Policy Options across the Subcontinent, Arpita Bhattacharyya and Michael Werz, Center for American Progress (December 2012)

AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Abbott Should Think Twice before becoming Friendly with Japan, Hugh White, Sydney Morning Herald (7 July 2014)

Two radical right governments, one new alliance, and a lot of consequences. With PM Abe in Australia, the Abbott government is cheering on the Abe administration’s reinterpretations and revision its country’s constitution. Japanese media close to the government are talking about Australia as a “quasi-ally”(準同盟国), and the Australian government is eager for the title, maintaining all the while that China will understand.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.


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