Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 10 January 2013

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Richard Tanter – Austral Peace and Security Contributor I want to explain why Japan as the northern hinge of the United States’ pivot strategy …, "Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 10 January 2013", NAPSNet Weekly Report, January 10, 2013,


See this week’s blog: Comfort women and the costs of denial, from our Austral Peace and Security contributor, Richard Tanter.

DETERRENCE:  Global trends 2030: scenarios for Asia’s strategic future, Dan Twining (11  December 2012)

GT 2030 foresaw 6 Asian orders. Multipolar: cooperative-competitive (US strongest); competitive (China strongest); cooperative (strong states in a liberal concert). Bipolar: competitive blocs led by US and China; China-led group contending group led by other Asian powers (not US); Sino-US condominium. Unipolar: Chinese primacy excluding the US.

DPRK: New Year address made by Kim Jong-un, National Committee on North Korea (1 January 2013)

Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s speech makes it clear his position is secure.  It is unclear if he plans to use that power to reform North Korea. There is little evidence in the past year much has changed other than routinizing charisma for Kim Jong-un.  His New Year’s speech contained mild overtures that only look nice compared with the normally horrific threats North Korea makes. South Korea will continue broadcasting analog signals near North Korea.

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: The effects of John Kerry as Secretary of State on the Korean Peninsula, Park Hyun, Hankyoreh (8 January 2013)

Leadership transitions may lead to increased engagement in the East Asia region. Nominees to the US Secretaries of State and Defense are proponents of dialogue with the DPRK. The ROK’s President-elect has called for renewed talks with the DPRK and Kim Jung-un took a more conciliatory stance in his New Year’s Address.  Japan’s Prime Minister is also taking the diplomatic initiative, sending a special envoy last week to meet with ROK President-elect Park.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Climate change, migration, and conflict in South Asia: rising tensions and policy options across the subcontinent, Arpita Bhattacharyya and Michael Werz, Center for American Progress (December 2012) [2.68 MB, PDF]

Analyzing South Asia through the prism of climate, migration, and security in Assam and the surrounding region provides useful insights into the underlying trends shaping the entire region and the risks posed by current long-term trajectories. While the precise influence of climate change on migration is still the subject of scientific inquiry and debate, the range of issues facing the region calls for a comprehensive assessment of climate change, migration, and their impact on both traditional and human security.

AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: The need for a new US-China strategic roadmap, Kevin Rudd, John L. Thornton Center, Brookings Institution (17 December 2012)

Having re-established the “realist” foundations of the United States’ position in Asia, the time has now come to construct a framework of strategic cooperation with the Chinese. This would particularly be the case if the Chinese concluded that the absence of such a framework may increase the possibility of regional tension, conflict or even war, thereby undermining China’s economic development agenda which remains central to the leadership’s ambitions.

Carol Ruff - ComfortBLOG: Comfort women and the costs of denial

by Richard Tanter – Austral Peace and Security Contributor I want to explain why Japan as the northern hinge of the United States’ pivot strategy …

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.

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