Nautilus Peace and Security – 9 October

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"Nautilus Peace and Security – 9 October", NAPSNet Weekly Report, October 06, 2014,

0013729e4abe149c734117DETERRENCE: Don’t Worry, the Next World War Is Not Upon Us…Yet, Graham Allison. Defense One, July 31, 2014

Allison compares 1914 with today.  Similarities: “Thucydides’s Trap,” inconceivability of “total” war, thick interdependence, rising nationalism and territorial disputes, powerful military establishments focused on a primary enemy, entangling alliances, temptation of a coup de main.  Differences: clash of civilizations, financial foundations of hegemonic power, shared geography, nuclear weapons, military balance, technology and transparency, structure of world politics.  US-China war is more likely than he imagined but still unlikely.

one tableDPRK: Pres. Park Offers Surprisingly Positive Assessment of NK Officials’ Visit. Park Byong-su, The Hankyoreh (7 October 2014).

What to make of recent events in North Korea?  North Korea’s actions always stem from one headwater – to stay in power; North Korea is firmly under control.  If there were palpable chaos in North Korea, they would not have sent emissaries to the United Nations, Europe and South Korea.  North Korea sent arguably the highest level visitors to South Korea ever.  South Korea positively received those who sojourned South and are scheduled to meet again.  In the meantime, there are other signs of threats and opportunities. Ignoring North Korea only makes North Korea issues more intractable.

Anti Nuclear Rally, South KoreaGOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Study calls for surcharge to support residents near nuclear power plants, Kim Kwang-soo, Hankyoreh (1 October 2014)

As public opposition in the ROK to nuclear power continues to grow, the most recent demonstrations expanding to include city leaders and governors, a new study calls for charging residents in other cities a surcharge to support safety measures for residents living near nuclear power plants. While opposition to nuclear power continues in several Asian regions, nuclear power in developing countries is booming.

Urban Morning HazeCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Narrative Research in Climate Change Adaptation – Exploring a Complementary Paradigm for Research and Governance, Jana-Axinja Paschen and Ray Ison, Research Policy, Article In-press, Elsevier B.V (2014) [499 KB, PDF]

Climate adaptation research increasingly focuses on the socio-cultural dimensions of change. In this context, narrative research is often seen as a qualitative social science method used to frame adaptation communication. However, this perspective neglects an important insight provided by narrative theory as applied in the cognitive sciences and other practical fields: human cognition is organized around specific narrative structures.

KRU-PAULSON-0704ENERGY SECURITY: Interests, Ideology and Climate, Paul Krugman, New York Times (8 June 2014)

Krugman presumes that he has a monopoly on intellect and ideology is the exclusive terrain of those who disagree with him. This is setting up a scene in an ongoing Washington movie – a smart virgin versus dumb rapists of the planet. He blames dysfunctionality in Congress for Obama’s imperial action, as if a quarrel is an excuse for bypassing the legislature. Krugman has tenure, Obama doesn’t.

20090612-monsoon-cloudsCLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: How Climate Change Helped ISIS, Charles B. Strozier and  Kelly A. Berkell, Huffington Post, (6 October 2014)

Climate had a role in the now forgotten Arab spring and the rise of ISIS, but where and how much? Acknowledging complexity requires sighting the underlying conditions, the role of catalysts, the triggering events, and capacities for state. Doing so predictively requires going beyond sentences with “could” and “may be”. At the same time, deep divergences in understanding the causes and solutions to climate change also shape thinking about “security”.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.

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