Nautilus Peace and Security – 18 September

• DETERRENCE: Wired for Sound in the ‘Near Seas’
• DPRK: “Inside the Red Box: North Korea’s Post Totalitarian Politics.”
• GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: S. Korea’s first ever nuclear vote coming on Oct. 9
• CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report – What’s in it for Small Island Developing States?
• ENERGY SECURITY: China Clarifies its Plans on Setting a CO2 Emissions Peak
• AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Australia to be NATO partner, 200 troops may return to Afghanistan

DETERRENCE: Wired for Sound in the ‘Near Seas’, Lyle Goldstein, Shannon Knight, U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 140: 4, April 2014, pp56-61

China’s ballistic missile submarines and its sole air craft carrier are vulnerable to US anti-submarine ships, planes, and subs.  To monitor its “near,” coastal, and ports, in 2012 China put fixed ocean-floor acoustic arrays integrated with sono-buoy deploying ships and aircraft in its surveillance system.

• With submarine, Navy tries to reassure friends in Asia — and warn foes, Anna Fifield, Washington Post, August 25, 2014
• Submarine Tech Outpacing ASW, Not talking won’t make subs go away, Bill Sweetman, Aviation Week & Space Technology, May 13, 2014 
• The Navy Is Tracking Some Strange Sounds Coming from the Ocean, Matthew Braga, The Atlantic, August 18, 2014
• China SSBN Fleet Getting Ready – But For What?  Hans Kristensen, FAS blog, April 25, 2014

DPRK: “Inside the Red Box: North Korea’s Post Totalitarian Politics.” Patrick MacEachern, Doctoral Dissertation May 2009. [PDF, 1.63MB]

North Korea sent signals across the entire spectrum this week. There were signals of cooperation, competition and displeasure. North Korea is often viewed as a unitary, monolithic actor – and certainly there is a great deal of truth to that assertion, but there are also bureaucratic actors with agendas that differ from each other.

• “Top DPRK diplomat visits Europe”, European Institute for Asian Studies. 12 September 2014.
• “Matthew Todd Miller sentenced to 6 years hard labor in North Korea”, Choe Sang-hun, The New York Times. 14 September 2014.
• “First batch of N. Korean Asiad delegation arrives in S. Korea”, Yonhap News Agency. 11 September 2014.

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: S. Korea’s first ever nuclear vote coming on Oct. 9, Park Soo-hyuk, Hankyoreh (16 September 2014)

A city in South Korea will hold its first referendum on plans for a new nuclear facility, organized by private groups after the local election commission declined to hold an official vote. Japan, China and the ROK have agreed to hold joint nuclear disaster drills. As Japan’s reactors remain offline, ‘solar islands’ have been proposed to be built off Japan’s coasts.

• Japan: ‘solar islands’ replace nuclear power, Jon Major, The Ecologist (13 September 2014)
• Japan, China, S. Korea to hold joint antinuclear disaster drill in Nov., Kyodo News (9 September 2014)

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report – What’s in it for Small Island Developing States? Elizabeth Carabine and Mairi Dupar, CDKN and Overseas Development Institute, UK (August 2014) [4.87 MB, PDF]

Given the interdependence among countries in today’s world, the impacts of climate change on resources or commodities in one place will have far-reaching effects on prices, supply chains, trade, investment and political relations in other places. Thus, climate change will progressively threaten food security and economic growth in complex ways across the world.

• Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – IPCC (2014) [8.68 MB, PDF]
• Summary for Policy Makers, Working Group III Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – IPCC (2014) [2.04 MB, PDF]

ENERGY SECURITY: China Clarifies its Plans on Setting a CO2 Emissions Peak, Andrew C. Revkin, DotEarth blog, New York Times (15 July 2014)

China’s power generation, and coal demand, has slowed down with the economy. If pollution controls are enforced, its coal imports will have to shift away from Indonesian brown coal to other higher-cost sources. A reduction in total coal use, but substituting electricity for inefficient direct combustion of coal, will reduce both total GHG emissions (even if CO2 emissions increase) and contribute to air quality improvements.

• Chinese demand for Indonesian coal increases despite pollution fears, Eric Ng, South China Morning Post (10 July 2014)
• A pollution problem will support seaborne coal trade from Australia, Xun Yao Chen (26 February 2014)

AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Australia to be NATO partner, 200 troops may return to Afghanistan, Greg Sheridan, The Australian (2 September 2014)

Pacific pivot effects of the US-led coalition return to Iraq and its ‘hold your positions’ posture in Afghanistan will not be clear for some time. What is evident is a continuing evolution of Global NATO, with Australia admitted as a formal partner – and Japan rejected. But the pivot also continues to evolve with the Philippines seeking military ties with Japan, Australia, and South Korea, and Washington pivot champions advocating an Australian-based US carrier force.

• Tony Abbott: Australia to send military force to fight Isis ‘death cult’, Helen Davidson, The Guardian, (14 September 2014)
• Send the U.S. Navy to Australia, Patrick M. Cronin and Richard Fontaine, Wall Street Journal (3 September 2014)
• Linking Spokes Together: The Philippines’ gambit of harnessing the United States’ alliances in its external balancing policy against an emergent China, Renato Cruz De Castro, Pacific Focus, Volume 29, Issue 1, pages 140–166, (April 2014)

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.

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  • Reports Editor: Frederica Kreitzer

  Contributors:

  • Deterrence: Peter Hayes
  • DPRK: Roger Cavazos
  • Governance and Civil Society: Dyana Mardon
  • Energy Security: Nikhil Desai
  • Climate Change Adaptation: Saleem Janjua
  • Austral Peace and Security: Richard Tanter