Nautilus Peace and Security – 12 February

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"Nautilus Peace and Security – 12 February", NAPSNet Weekly Report, February 12, 2015,

DETERRENCE: US-China Need a Missile Launch Notification Deal, The Diplomat. (27 October 2014)

January 2015, India tested its Agni 5 ICBM. December 2014, China tested a MIRVed 12000 km DF-41 ICBM. November, Russia fired a MIRVed 8000 km Bulava missile from a submerged K-550 sub in the Barent Sea to Kamchatka. June, the US tested a Trident II D5, followed in November by a Minuteman III test. Maybe time for a missile launch notification agreement?

DPRK: Testing intentions: a debate about U.S. strategy toward North Korea. The National Committee on North Korea. (11 February 2015)

As the US and South Korea move into another exercise season, North Korea reveals more defensive capabilities even though any country with the means and desire to invade North Korea would have likely already done so if they thought it was a cost-effective strategy. The U.S. North Korea-strategy should be in flux with the recent release of the U.S. National Security Strategy and some of these new DPRK capabilities – before they mature.

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: China seizes 7,600 rolls of toilet paper featuring image of Hong Kong leader, Thor Benson, UPI. (7 February 2015)

Government authorities in Hong Kong have seized 7,600 rolls of toilet paper and tissues printed with the face of Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing ruler, set to be sold during Lunar New Year celebrations. Pro-democracy protestors have returned to the streets but without the physical confrontations with police seen previously. Other Hong Kong demonstrators clashed with police while protesting the growing number of traders from mainland China.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Climate-related flood risks and urban responses in the Pearl River Delta, China, Liang Yang, Jürgen Scheffran, Huapeng Qin and Qinglong You, Working Paper CLISEC-27, Research Group Climate Change and Security, University of Hamburg. (2015)

The evaluation of flood vulnerabilities in the PRD (Pearl River Delta) cities indicates a complicated situation. Low lying locations with great human welfare and vital infrastructure contribute to the high exposure of these cities, in particular of central cities like Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. These cities also lead the sensitivity ranking, which indicates that vulnerable sections of society (e.g. old people, unemployed labor, small business) are the core concern in addressing flood threats.

AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Confusion emerged over contract for 12 submarines amid claims PM used project to win leadership votes, (10 February 2015)

Recipe for $40 bn. submarine disaster: Take one PM facing “near death experience”, add fiscal collapse from plummeting exports, stir in strategic confusion, mix with Australian deindustrialization and brawls over local vs. foreign suppliers, ignore Asian underwater ELINT/ECM action-reaction race, spice with hint of agreement to avoid an open tender (Japan: “we can’t really be seen to be actively pursuing a deal”), and decline deep thought about uses of Australian submarines in Asian waters two decades hence.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found — North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.

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