VINCE SCAPPATURA AND RICHARD TANTER JANUARY 30 2026 I. INTRODUCTION Vince Scappatura and Richard Tanter argue that the imminent expiration of the New START treaty on 6 February of this year marks not simply the end of a treaty, but the collapse of a wider decades-long framework constraining the nuclear arms race between the United […]
PETER HAYES AND LEON SIGAL JANUARY 18 2025 I. INTRODUCTION In this essay, Peter Hayes and Leon Sigal argue that historical insight is essential to understanding the current political turmoil in the ROK and its implications for the incoming Trump Administration’s policies towards the DPRK. It also marks the posting of the latest searchable DPRK […]
APRIL 29, 2023 PETER HAYES I. INTRODUCTION In this essay, Peter Hayes analyzes the five key elements of the Biden-Yoon Washington Declaration; and concludes: “Yoon’s January 2023 nuclear proliferation demarche and the US response have made the peninsula, the region, and the world more insecure whilst doing nothing to actually reduce the risk of nuclear […]
CHEON, MYEONGGUK DECEMBER 5, 2022 I. INTRODUCTION In this essay, CHEON Myeongguk explores the possible implications of the Ukraine conflict on the ROK attitudes regarding nuclear weapons. He concludes that the “ROK’s indigenous nuclear option would be a last resort as a deterrence measure against DPRK’s nuclear threat. This option would only be considered by […]
ANASTASIA BARANNIKOVA NOVEMBER 7, 2022 I. INTRODUCTION In this essay, Anastasia Barannikova argues that although the situation in Ukraine does not affect Russia’s nuclear posture/strategy in Northeast Asia directly, direct impacts of the situation in Ukraine on Russia’s nuclear policies in this region cannot be ruled out. Examples of such indirect impacts include changes […]
PAUL K. DAVIS OCTOBER 27, 2022 I. INTRODUCTION In this Policy Forum essay, Paul Davis argues: “Anyone sensible worries that a first nuclear use might well lead to escalation and general nuclear war, but the adjective “inexorably” should no longer be included.” He concludes that the Ukraine war has made the range of nuclear-use cases […]
TONG ZHAO OCTOBER 13, 2022 I. INTRODUCTION In this Policy Forum essay, Tong Zhao argues that China fundamentally sees the Ukraine conflict as being caused by hegemonic behavior by the US-led West forcing Russia’s hand. China has been watching and learning from Russia’s implicit use of nuclear threat, and the lessons learned may add Tong […]
ALEXANDRE Y. MANSOUROV OCTOBER 7, 2022 I. INTRODUCTION In the Policy Forum essay that follows, Alexandre Mansourov argues that the lessons learned from the Ukraine conflict by DPRK leadership may make the DPRK more likely to conclude that having nuclear weapons capability will not necessarily translate to victory in a war on the Korean peninsula, […]
ROBERT AYSON SEPTEMBER 30 2022 INTRODUCTION In this essay, Robert Ayson argues that “Putin’s nuclear rhetoric is unlikely to disappear or become more reasonable. But what he decides to do with Russia’s nuclear arsenal matters more than what he chooses to say about it.” He concludes that “it’s time for Asia-Pacific powers–especially India and China–to […]
MICHAEL ROACH AUGUST 6 2022 I. INTRODUCTION In this essay, Michael Roach provides a remarkable account of multigenerational involvement in nuclear war, starting with a previously unpublished photo of the starboard nose of the Enola Gay bomber that delivered the first atomic bomb and returned to Tinian airfield, showing the inscription “First Atomic Bomb […]
