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An Updated Estimate of Energy Use in the Armed Forces of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)

North Korea’s new leader inherited a large standing conventional military. Shortly after taking over, he succeeded in launching a rocket and testing a nuclear device. His actions were likely primarily driven by domestic concerns. North Korea’s governance system seems to seek strong domestic support in part by being able to demonstrate a set of strong external forces allied against the nation, which helps to make acceptable the consolidation of decision power under one charismatic leader and justifies diverting a larger portion of the populace away from the civilian sector of the economy and into the military than is the case in any other country. This large standing conventional force demands a surprisingly modest proportion of North Korea’s overall energy usage (though a much larger fraction of the DPRK’s limited petroleum fuels supplies) indicating a large, but not particularly active military. Despite increased tensions in recent years, it is not clear that North Korea’s military has actually increased its overall energy demand. North Korean military energy usage seems more or less static over the years and is consistent with observations that North Korean rhetoric regarding potential military actions has increased, but that the actual actions of the DPRK’s conventional military remain muted.

Energy Security and the Role of Green Economies in East Asia

by David von Hippel Contributing authors: Yi Wang, Kae Takase, Tetsunari Iida, Myungrae Cho, and Sun-Jin Yun 28 July 2015 I. Introduction David von Hippel writes that following the Fukushima nuclear disaster, there is an increasing ‘recognition that new paradigms are needed to deal with expanding complexity in the relationships between the issues and actors […]

Nuclear Threat and Korean Reunification

by Peter Hayes 1 June 2015 I. Introduction In this Policy Forum Peter Hayes writes that “reunification will become harder and increase in social, economic, and security cost the longer and deeper the DPRK develops nuclear weapons. The faster nuclear weapons are removed from the scene, the sooner reunification can commence at a cheaper cost, with […]

A comprehensive agreement for security in Northeast Asia

by Morton Halperin 16 March 2015 Introduction In this Policy Forum Morton H. Halperin writes ‘A new approach is clearly needed to prevent the DPRK from testing and deploying its operational nuclear weapons capability and to persuade it to de-nuclearize.’ Halperin lays out a plan for achieving a comprehensive security agreement in Northeast Asia, ‘one […]

North Korea’s nuclear force roadmap: hard choices

by Peter Hayes and Roger Cavazos NAPSNet Special Report 2 March 2015 I. SUMMARY In this report Peter Hayes and Roger Cavazos lay out a possible roadmap for North Korea’s nuclear operational force. The authors state: “The laws of physics that determine how nuclear weapons and delivery systems perform are the same in North Korea […]

Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 8 May 2014

Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 10 October 2013

DETERRENCE: Scary Default Scenarios Based on Faulty Treasury Department Release DPRK: North Korea threatens preemptive attack on U.S., South Korea ENERGY SECURITY: IPCC Issues Stark Warning Over Global Warming: Call to ‘Stop Dithering About Fossil Fuel Cuts’ as Expert Panel Warns Entire Globe is Affected GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: State Clumsy in Managing Conflicts CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Understanding the Adaptive […]

Thinking About The Thinkable: DPRK Collapse Scenarios Redux

In the following Policy Forum Peter Hayes analyzes Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse by RAND analyst Bruce Bennett. Hayes states “Bennett’s report is salutary reading and should be read widely, including in Pyongyang.  Anyone who hopes (as against feels obliged to prepare) for DPRK collapse or who thinks that “bringing it on” is likely to incur less costs for the most vulnerable populations than transforming the DPRK inside-out as-fast-as-possible via engagement aimed at non-collapse should read chapter 3 on the horrendous humanitarian consequences of a collapse and possible war.”

Peter Hayes is Professor of International Relations, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University, Australia and Director, Nautilus Institute.

Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 19 September 2013

DETERRENCE: Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety DPRK: North Korea Restarting its 5MW Reactor ENERGY SECURITY: Arctic Sea Ice Melting Faster Than Expected, UN Report Finds GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Japan Grapples with Rise in Hate Groups CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Floods in the WHO European Region: Health Effects and their Prevention AUSTRAL PEACE […]