Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 10 October 2013

• DETERRENCE: Scary Default Scenarios Based on Faulty Treasury Department Release
  
• DPRK: North Korea threatens preemptive attack on U.S., South Korea
• ENERGY SECURITY: IPCC Issues Stark Warning Over Global Warming: Call to ‘Stop Dithering About Fossil Fuel Cuts’ as Expert Panel Warns Entire Globe is Affected
• GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: State Clumsy in Managing Conflicts
• CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Understanding the Adaptive Capacity of Australian Small-to-Medium Enterprises to Climate Change and Variability
• CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Climate Change, Water Conflicts and Human Security: Regional Assessment and Policy Guidelines for the Mediterranean, Middle East and Sahel

DETERRENCE: Scary Default Scenarios Based on Faulty Treasury Department Release, Bob Adelmann, The New American, October 7, 2013

Adelmann asks: “Have countries actually gone bankrupt and then come back into the credit markets? Well, yes. The scaremongers and naysayers at the Treasury Department should be asked: What about Argentina? Iceland? Mexico? Russia?”  US will default Oct22-Nov1 if impasse unresolved.  President Xi proposed enhanced connectivity in Asia-Pacific markets at APEC meeting (Obama no show).

• Updated Debt Limit Analysis, S. Bell et al, Bipartisan Policy Center, October 8, 2013
• Report on Macroeconomic Effect of Debt Ceiling Brinkmanship, S. Siddiqui, US Treasury Department, October 3, 2013 [PDF, 0.8MB]
• Chinese president urges developing connectivity in Asia Pacific, Xinhua, October 8, 2013

DPRK: North Korea threatens preemptive attack on U.S., South Korea, Nuclear Threat Initiative (7 October 2013)

North Korea responded to perceived threats to its sovereignty by increasing tensions.  North Korea likely feels threatened by: an aircraft carrier exercising with South Korea and Japan; a missile South Korea paraded that can hit any designated window in North Korea; and a United States and South Korea announcement they might pre-empt an imminent North Korean nuclear attack. The U.S. said it would consider talks with North Korea after specific steps.

• South Korea held its biggest military parade in 10 years. Communist Party of China News, (2 October 2013) [Chinese language]
• S. Korea, U.S. to preemptively respond to signs of DPRK’s nuclear threats. Xinhua News Agency (2 October 2013)
• Kerry: U.S. open to discuss non-aggression deal with N. Korea.  Kim Hyun-bin, Arirang News (4 October 2013)

ENERGY SECURITY: IPCC Issues Stark Warning Over Global Warming: Call to ‘Stop Dithering About Fossil Fuel Cuts’ as Expert Panel Warns Entire Globe is Affected, Robin McKie, The Observer (UK) [21 September 2013]

IPCC is in the business of facilitating intergovernmental consensus when preparing Summaries for Policy Makers. Media have the business of manufacturing opinions and “calls to action” (meaning diversion from other worthwhile goals).  Samenow points out, the leaked IPCC draft summaries made no mention of words like “threat” or “dangerous”, interpretations assigned by interpreters and parts of media, politics and other businesses. Back in May, the Guardian quoted a scientist, “the effect of pollutants in the atmosphere, which reflect the sun’s heat back into space, was particularly hard to measure.

• The climate change consensus: a call for care in interpretation, Jason Samenow, Washington Post blog [25 September 2013]
• Climate change: human disaster looms, claims new research , Fiona Harvey, Guardian [19 May 2013]
• Don’t blame climate change for extreme weather, Bjørn Lomborg, Opinion, Washington Post [15 September 2013]

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: State Clumsy in Managing Conflicts, Kim Jae-won, Korea Times (8 October 2013)

Residents between the ages of 60 and 80 in a South Korean village are protesting the erection of high voltage electricity pylons by the Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), raising the threat of blackouts over the coming year as nuclear reactors are kept offline. KEPCO has been criticized by some for not adequately consulting with local residents prior to construction, while others argue that non-residents should not be involved with the protests.

• South Korea nuclear issues, tower protests raise blackout risks, Meeyoung Cho and Jane Chung, Reuters (9 September 2013)
• South Korea: Vicarious administrative execution is not legitimate without just and fair consultation of Miryang villagers, Asian Human Rights Commission (7 October 2013)
• Outsiders must leave Miryang, Dong-a Ilbo (4 October 2013)

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Understanding the Adaptive Capacity of Australian Small-to-Medium Enterprises to Climate Change and Variability, Natasha Kuruppu et al., University of Technology-Sydney and National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility-NCCARF (2013) [3.92 MB, PDF]

The underlying contextual processes are critical to enhancing the adaptive capacity of Australian small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs). These processes include: the social relationships between SMEs and support organisations; the agency of SMEs to direct resources toward building resilience into business continuity; SMEs’ perceptions of climate risks; and power struggles between support organisations.

• Enhancing adaptive capacity of small to medium enterprises – background report, Anna Gero, Janina Murta, Natasha Kuruppu, Pierre Mukheibir, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney (2012) [1.17 MB, PDF]
• Key statistics: Australian small business, Department of Innovation, Industry, Science and Research, Commonwealth of Australia (2011) [7.30 MB, PDF]

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Climate Change, Water Conflicts and Human Security: Regional Assessment and Policy Guidelines for the Mediterranean, Middle East and Sahel, Julia Kloos et al, CLICO and the Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, Report No. 10 (August 2013)

A complex nexus connects climate change, water conflicts and security. Climate and hydrological factors, socio-economic, institutional and political conditions are all important drivers of human (in) security, but their relative importance depends on the specific context. Adaptation processes can both reduce and increase insecurities, including through maladaptation and divergent adaptation – where the adaptation of one group lowers the adaptive capacity of another.

• Hydro-climatic change, conflict and security, Giorgos Kallis, Christos Zografos, Climatic Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0893-2, October 2013
• Kenya grapples with governance of climate change projects, Justus Bahati Wanzala, Thomson Reuters Foundation – Mon, 30 Sep 2013 11:08 AM
•  A view from the ninth floor, D.H. Garrett, The Asia-Pacific Journal, Vol. 11, Issue 40, No. 3, October 7, 2013

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.