Nautilus Peace and Security – 13 November

• DETERRENCE: Interview with Masakatsu Ota
• DPRK: North Korea frees two Americans as Obama heads to Beijing
• GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: US Refusing to Cover De-Contamination Costs for Five Military Bases Slated for Return
• ENERGY SECURITY: Cheap Oil Pops the Green Policy Bubble
• CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Stakeholder-Driven Research for Climate Adaptation in New York City
• AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Iraq War 3.0? What could possibly Go Wrong?

DETERRENCE: Interview with Masakatsu Ota, Shinano Mainichi Shinbun, October 25, 2011

A senior LDP politician, Shigeru Ishida, stated: “We should keep nuclear fuel cycle, which is backed by enrichment and reprocessing, cycling” in order to maintain “technical deterrence.”” Says Ota: “Ishiba used the expression “技術抑止” in Japanese. “技術” means “technology.” “抑止” means “deterrent.” So generally, we can interpret this expression either as  “technical deterrent” or “technological deterrent.” From the context how this expression “技術抑止” is used…my impression is that he used this expression in both ways.”

Campbell, T. Sunohara, “Japan: Thinking the Unthinkable,” in K. Campbell, R. Einhorn, M. Reiss, ed, Why States Reconsider their Nuclear Choices, Brookings Institution, Washington DC, 2004, p. 245.

• Japan, Heisei Militarization and the Bush Doctrine, Richard Tanter, NAPSNet Policy Forum, October 28, 2004,
• Japan’s Plutonium Overhang and Regional Insecurity, Peter Hayes,  Pacific Focus, 8:2, Fall, 1993, pp. 83-108.

DPRK: North Korea frees two Americans as Obama heads to Beijing, David Clark Scott Christian Science Monitor. (8 November 2014).

North Korea’s release of the last two American prisoners last week is such an ambiguous signal amid shifting power configurations in the region that it is time to define goals for talking with North Korea. No one is sure how North Korea came to the decision to release them or why they chose that time. Some say human rights pressures are working, some that China wanted leverage just prior to a summit with the US, some that North Korea wanted to send a signal. The best way to determine their intentions is test them by taking reversible, low cost steps like dialog.

• “Roadblocks removed: can the US travel the diplomatic path with the DPRK?” Frank Januzzi, 38North. (9 November 2014)
• U.S. gives North Korea the silent treatment. David Sanger, The New York Times. (9 November 2014)
• Keep pushing North Korea to address its human rights abuses. Editorial board, The Washington Post. (10 November 2014)

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: US Refusing to Cover De-Contamination Costs for Five Military Bases Slated for Return, Lee You Ju-hyun, Hankyoreh (3 November 2014)

The environmental impacts of US military bases in Asia are drawing concern from partners. Plans to turn over five bases to the ROK are on hold due to apparent disagreements as to whether the US should pay decontamination costs. Japan and the US have agreed on the “substance” for an agreement allowing environmental surveys of US bases by Japanese authorities.

• A green challenge to the Asia-Pacific pivot, Koohan Paik, Foreign Policy in Focus (27 January 2014)
• Japan, US agree on new base environment accord, Kyodo (20 October 2014)

ENERGY SECURITY: Cheap Oil Pops the Green Policy Bubble, Opinion, Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., Wall Street Journal (15 October 2014)

Oil and gas price increases were one thing, cheap capital another. Governments neck deep in debt could also afford to finance “green jobs” and other fancies because new debt was essentially interest-free. Seems like one shoe has fallen, the other may soon; the IMF admits the governments’ tool-kit is empty. How long the green bubble lasts is anybody’s guess. Ethanol prices run out of fuel. Christine Lagarde says the global economy is at an inflection point but the oil price decline may have come too late.

• Ethanol prices slide amid supply spike, Jesse Newman, Wall Street Journal (2 October 2014)
• Global economic growth keeps getting downgraded, Ylan Q. Mui, Wonkblog, Washington Post (2 October 2014)

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Stakeholder-Driven Research for Climate Adaptation in New York City (Chapter 4), Nir Y. Krakauer, New Trends in Earth-Science Outreach and Engagement, Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, Springer International Publishing (2014) [398 KB, PDF]

New York City’s climate change adaptation trajectory is unusual among global cities in that it has the technical resources to commission science, engineering, and policy research specific to its needs. New York City is leveraging its human capital to make better use of current facilities and regulatory frameworks, providing a potential model for other jurisdictions. National and global city forums provide one way to share the lessons learned with smaller cities that do not have such resources.

• The Challenges We Face: Climate Change, the Official Website of the City of New York, New York, USA (2014)
• AdaptNY, New York Climate Change Adaptation Debate, New York, USA (2014)

AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Iraq War 3.0? What Could Possibly Go Wrong? Peter van Buren, Informed Comment (10 November 2014)

Of the 60 countries the US claims support intervention in Iraq, Australia’s 600 air and special forces deployment (soon to be doubled?) may well be the largest. But the incoherence of US strategic policy, the Teflon-coated military logic of the Iraq-Syria intervention, and the collapse within Australian politics of the capacity to question presumptions of automatic alignment of Australian and US interests all collude to guarantee outcomes worse than failure.

• Barack Obama ‘having conversations’ with Australia to increase Iraq troop commitment, Mark Kenny, The Age (11 November 2014)
• Iraq situation report: November 10, 2014, Iraq Project, Institute for the Study of War
• Islamic State executions in Anbar keep casualties high In 1st week of Nov. 2014, Joel Wing, Musings on Iraq (10 November 2014)

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.

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  • Reports Editor: Frederica Kreitzer

  Contributors:

  • Deterrence: Peter Hayes
  • DPRK: Roger Cavazos
  • Governance and Civil Society: Dyana Mardon
  • Energy Security: Nikhil Desai
  • Climate Change Adaptation: Saleem Janjua
  • Austral Peace and Security: Richard Tanter