CONTINUATION OF POLICY WITH OTHER MEANS: ENSURING THAT THE MARCH-APRIL 2017 US-ROK MILITARY EXERCISES DO NOT INCREASE THE RISK OF WAR

Peter Hayes, Director, Nautilus Institute and Professor Center for International Security Studies, Sydney University February 15, 2017 I.  INTRODUCTION This essay by Peter Hayes argues that it is critical that military exercises not pre-empt US political objectives while President Donald Trump comes to grips with the “multilemma” that North Korean’s nuclear breakout poses for US […]

COULD CYBER ATTACKS DEFEAT NORTH KOREAN MISSILE TESTS?

Markus Schiller and Peter Hayes March 6, 2017  I. INTRODUCTION This essay by  Markus Schiller and Peter Hayes suggests that it is improbable that US cyber attacks were the cause of DPRK intermediate range missile failures as was suggested in a March 6, 2017 New York Times story. Markus Schiller is an aerospace engineer, with rocket […]

NORTH KOREA’S INTERCONTINENTAL FEBRUARY SURPRISE?

NORTH KOREA’S INTERCONTINENTAL FEBRUARY SURPRISE? NASPNet Blue Peter February 16, 2017 by Peter Hayes, Honorary Professor, Center for International Security Studies, Sydney University, and Director, Nautilus Institute. I. INTRODUCTION Peter Hayes writes that the missile tested on February 12 2017 was not an intercontinental missile. Rather it was most likely a land-based version of the same […]

ANZUS WILL ENDURE

by Paul Barratt, former Secretary, Australian Department of Defence February 2, 2017  I.  INTRODUCTION This essay by Paul Barratt, former Secretary, Australian Department of Defence, responds to the confusion and uncertainty generated by President Trump’s dismissive and angry response to the deal struck by the Obama Administration to accept 1,250 refugees from Australia.  The author […]

Australia’s participation in the Pine Gap enterprise

Australia’s participation in the Pine Gap enterprise Desmond Ball, Bill Robinson and Richard Tanter 9 June 2016 Full report available here [1.7 MB]. Summary Australian participation in the operation of Pine Gap is effectively complete, with access to all areas of the base except the US National Cryptographic Room. The senior Australian Defence officials who […]

“Yes I Can!” Byungjin and Kim Jong Un’s Strategic Patience

NAPSNET Special Report Peter Hayes and Roger Cavazos March 29, 2016 I.  INTRODUCTION North Korea upgraded its nuclear and military power and grew its economy slightly, thereby realizing Kim Jong Un’s byungjin line. It also attempted to open new external fronts and to coerce the South to cooperate on its terms, but failed. Instead, it […]

SANCTIONING KEROSENE AND JET FUEL IN NORTH KOREA

NAPSNet Policy Forum Peter Hayes, David von Hippel, and Roger Cavazos March 10, 2016 I. Introduction Paragraph 31 of the UN Security Council’s sanction resolution 2270 passed on March 2, 2016 specifically takes aim at jet fuel and kerosene-type rocket fuel by the North Korean military. As the DPRK likely makes its own rocket fuel, […]