In today’s Report:

I. Republic of Korea

I. Republic of Korea

1. Alterations to the Taiwanese Nuclear Waste Trade

ROK Foreign Minister Yoo Chong-ha has urged Taiwan to end its plan to ship nuclear waste to the DPRK, and to reconsider the PRC as their contractor. During his May 18-21 trip to China, Minister Yoo said that PRC officials had offered to take the Taiwanese radioactive waste. The Minister, appearing on “In Focus,” a debate program on cable television, said, “[Chinese officials] said that China is ready to take the Taiwanese radioactive waste because they have the facilities, technology and experience.” (Korea Herald, “CHINA OFFERS TO TAKE WASTE TO STOP NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR DEAL; ARIRANG TV TO AIR YOO’S INTERVIEW TONIGHT,” 06/17/97)

2. Kim Jung-Il Likely to Assume Presidency This Year

According to Radio Moscow, Kim Jong-il, the DPRK’s de facto leader, is expected to assume the state presidency this year. Quoting DPRK Ambassador to Russia Son Song-phil at a recent memorial service held at the DPRK embassy in Moscow, the official news source reported Son as saying, “In accordance with the people’s demands, Kim Jong-il is likely to be elected state president this year.” July 8, the third anniversary of the senior Kim’s death, will also mark the end of the three-year mourning period for the late President Kim Il-sung. (Korea Herald, “KIM TO TAKE TOP NORTH KOREA POSTS THIS YEAR: SAYS DPRK AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA,” 06/17/97)

3. No New Progress in Four-Party Peace Talks

US State Department Spokesman Nicholas Burns announced at a briefing yesterday that there has been no progress in the four-party peace talks after the th

In today’s Report:

I. Republic of Korea

I. Republic of Korea

1. DPRK Adopts De Facto Market Economy in Najin-Sonbong

The DPRK recently reported to the UNDP of their economic liberalization and reform plan in the Najin-Sonbong SEZ. The plan is comprised of eleven articles and includes proposals for currency reform, permission for citizens to run private businesses and freely trade goods, the establishment of a free market in the border town of Wonjong-li, the privatization of government owned businesses, and a cut in government subsidies. Observers view such reform plans as a de facto adoption of a market economy and demonstrated concerns of its impacts. (Joong-ang Ilbo, “DPRK TO PERMIT PRIVATE BUSINESS IN NAJIN- SONBONG,” 06/16/97)

2. Taiwan to Purchase 2,000 Rocket Launchers from France

The Taiwanese defense ministry announced through local media on June 15 of their plan to purchase two thousand anti-tank rocket launchers from France. The announcement came despite the 1994 PRC-France agreement on arms embargo to Taiwan. The report, quoting an anonymous senior official in the defense force, said that the proposed deal is likely to be completed because the rocket launchers are classified as “general” military equipment. Neither the name of the exporter nor the cost of the purchase were disclosed. (Kyunghyang Shinmun, “TAIWAN TO PURCHASE ANTI-TANK MISSILE LAUNCHERS FROM FRANCE,” 06/16/97)

3. ROK Food Aid Continue in DPRK

The ROK’s first shipment of corn in relief aid to the DPRK, which began last Thursday, resumed yesterday in three areas bordering the North and China. It is expected that the last of the 11,200 tons of corn will be delivered to the DPRK by June 19, with the second shipment of 17,600 tons of corn scheduled to begin the following day. According to Lee Kye-bok of the South Korean National Red Cross (KNRC), who is overseeing the transportation of th

In today’s Report:

I. United States

II. Republic of Korea

III. Japan

IV. Announcement

I. United States

1. US-DPRK Missile Talks

US State Department Spokesman Nicholas Burns (“STATE DEPARTMENT NOON BRIEFING, JUNE 12,” USIA Transcript, 6/13/97) stated that talks between the US and the DPRK on missile proliferation began on Wednesday and were scheduled to continue through Friday. The US delegation is being led by Deputy Assistant Secretary Bob Einhorn. “I am not going to be providing an assessment of how the talks are going. We will do that at the end of the talks,” Burns said. In response to a subsequent question regarding whether the talks include the issue of DPRK chemical weapon development, Burns said, “These are proliferation talks, so they encompass both ballistic missile and any kind of concerns that we would have with other proliferation activities, fissile material, anything that came into play.”

2. ROK Stinger Missile Purchase from US

US State Department Spokesman Nicholas Burns (“STATE DEPARTMENT NOON BRIEFING, JUNE 12,” USIA Transcript, 6/13/97), in response to a question concerning ROK denials of US statements that the ROK has agreed to purchase US$307 million worth of Stinger missiles from the US, stated, “If, in fact, the South Koreans say that, well, … we would just have one bit of advice for the South Koreans. American products are obviously superior.” Burns added, “We are a good friend to South Korea, and the South Koreans know that. We are the best friend that South Korea has. We are always there to help defend South Korea. So we attach particular importance to the sale of the Stingers, a lot of importance.”

US Defense Department Deputy Spokesman Mike Doubleday (“PENTAGON SPOKESMAN’S REGULAR BRIEFING,”

In today’s Report:

I. United States

II. Republic of Korea

III. Russian Federation

I. United States

1. US-DPRK Missile Talks

The Associated Press (Robert Reid, “U.S., NORTH KOREA IN MISSILE TALKS,” New York, 6/11/97) and United Press International (“US, NORTH KOREA MEET ON MISSILES,” New York, 6/11/97) reported that the US and DPRK are began three-day talks aimed at halting DPRK production of Rodong I missiles. These ballistic missiles may be capable of hitting Japan and the ROK. In addition, the talks will cover concerns that the DPRK has sold long-range Scud missiles to Iran and Syria. Robert Einhorn is leading the US delegation and Li Hyun-chul, director of the DPRK Foreign Ministry, is heading the DPRK delegation.

2. Cargill-DPRK Grain Deal

Reuters (“CARGILL DEAL FAILS ON N. KOREA ZINC SALE TO SEOUL,” Seoul, 6/11/97) reported that metal traders in Seoul purchased approximately 4,500 tons of zinc from the DPRK in the weeks prior to the DPRK’s cancellation of its US$4 million “grain for zinc” deal with Cargill, Inc. According to traders in Seoul, the price for zinc on the London Metal Exchange recently rose to $1,360 per ton, compared with prices of about $1,260 per ton in early April when the Cargill deal was reached. The DPRK was to exchange 4,000 tons of zinc for 20,000 tons of wheat from Cargill, but canceled the deal last week. Some reports suggested that the DPRK canceled the deal because it could not supply the agreed quantity of metal.

3. DPRK Famine Situation

The Los Angeles Times (Teresa Watanabe, Hyungwon Kang, “IN N. KOREA, RESILIENCE IN THE FACE OF FAMINE,” Unpa County, DPRK, 6/8/97) provided a first-hand account of the food situation in the DPRK following a visi

In today’s Report:

I. United States

II. Republic of Korea

I. United States

1. Japan-US defense agreement

The Wall Street Journal (Eduardo Lachica, “U.S., JAPAN AGREE TO GUIDELINES OUTLINING `DEFENSE COOPERATION,” Washington, 6/9/97) and Reuters (“US, JAPAN CLOSE TO NEW MILITARY ROLE FOR TOKYO,” Honolulu, 6/8/97) reported that the US and Japan released new guidelines for a new defense arrangement between the two countries on Saturday. These guidelines are part of an interim report developed by a bilateral panel which is following up on initiatives announced during the Clinton-Hashimoto summit in April 1996. The guidelines include a broader range of logistical and noncombatant support role for Japan in the event of an emergency situation in the areas “surrounding” Japan, including use of Japanese airfields, Japanese involvement in minesweeping and enhanced intelligence gathering. These new roles represent a departure from the existing “Guidelines for Defense Cooperation” drafted in 1978 under which only an armed invasion of Japan would warrant joint US-Japanese military operations. The new guidelines recognize that hostilities directed at Japan will be in the form of missile strikes rather than amphibious landings. The guidelines do not require either country to change their laws of appropriate additional financial support.

The Washington Times (Willis Witter, “JAPAN, U.S. PLAN TO EXPAND MILITARY PRESENCE,” Tokyo, 6/9/97) and The Associated Press (“JAPAN EXPLAINS US DEFENSE PLAN,” Tokyo, 6/8/97) reported that the US and Japan are planning a “diplomatic offensive” to convince China and the rest of the Asia-Pacific region to accept an expanded military role for Japan. The final report is expected in November and will more carefully spell out specific roles for Japan. The AP reports that Japan is expecting criticism from China over a possible role for Japan in helping US forces in a conflict over Taiwan.

2. US-Japan-ROK Talks

In today’s Report:

I. United States

II. Republic of Korea

III. Japan

I. United States

1. DPRK, ROK Ships Exchange Gunfire

The Associated Press (“NORTH, SOUTH KOREA CLASH AT SEA,” Seoul, 6/05/97) and Reuters (“NORTH AND SOUTH KOREAN NAVAL SHIPS SWAP FIRE,” Seoul, 6/05/97) reported that DPRK and ROK naval vessels exchanged fire on Thursday after a DPRK patrol boat, along with a fleet of nine fishing boats, sailed two nautical miles into ROK territorial waters off the west coast of the Korean peninsula. The ROK Defense Ministry said in a statement that the DPRK boat fired three rounds at three high-speed ROK gunboats as they came to intercept it, and that the ROK side returned fire with two rounds. The Defense Ministry characterized all five rounds as warning shots, adding that there were no casualties or damage and that the DPRK boats sailed back across the nautical demarcation line after a 40-minute confrontation. Two ROK jet fighters scrambled to the scene and more were placed on alert, Defense Ministry officials said. DPRK patrol ships have violated ROK waters several times in the past year, but Thursday’s incident was the first time both sides exchanged fire. The ROK Defense Ministry statement said that the ROK would take up the incident, the most serious DPRK incursion since last September’s submarine incident, through the Military Armistice Commission.

US State Department Spokesman Nicholas Burns (STATE DEPT. NOON BRIEFING, JUNE 5,” USIA Transcript, 6/06/97), in response to a question concerning the DPRK-ROK naval gunfire exchange, stated, “I would just really have to refer you to the South Korean Government on that. They are the ones who will best speak about that. They have the facts. Obviously, you know the United States is an ally of

In today’s Report:

I. United States

II. Republic of Korea

III. Russian Federation

I. United States

1. DPRK-Cargill Grain Deal Imperiled

Reuters (“N.KOREA’S BARTER DEAL WITH CARGILL FACES FAILURE,” Seoul, 6/04/97) reported that the US$4 million barter arrangement between the DPRK and US grain giant Cargill Inc. was on the brink of collapse on Wednesday after Pyongyang failed to comply with conditions of the deal, traders said. Cargill ordered the vessel carrying 20,000 tons of its grain to remain in international waters when it learned that the DPRK’s share of the barter deal, 4,000 tons of zinc, had not been delivered to the port, an Asian grain trading source said. “The wheat was set to arrive on June 1 or 2 at North Korea’s western port of Nampo. But the ship is on the open sea,” the source said. In the deal, struck in April, the DPRK agreed to have the zinc at the port and ready for shipment before the vessel carrying Cargill’s wheat docked, the source said. Cargill wanted to keep the vessel in international waters to maintain control of its cargo and the vessel itself, because once a vessel enters a country’s territorial waters, international maritime law requires that it follow the instructions of the port authority, a Seoul trader said. Cargill, reportedly negotiating with the DPRK to try to salvage the deal, declined comment.

2. DPRK Famine Situation

The AP-Dow Jones News Service (“U.N. AGENCY SAYS N. KOREA FOOD RATIONS RUNNING OUT,” Rome, 6/04/97) reported that the UN World Food Program (WFP) said in a report issued Wednesday that the DPRK’s food ration system is nearing collapse, putting the p