Alexandre Y. Mansourov argues that Kim Jong Il is engaged in a two-level game whereby his domestic political and economic considerations are as important to him, if not more, as the signals, which he sends to and receives from the international community. The author believes that at the current stage of confrontation, Kim Jong Il is not interested in any sort of negotiations with the United States. Kim wants the Bomb, and North Korea will do its utmost to become a nuclear state, whether it will officially declare it outright or not. On its part, Washington refuses to negotiate with Pyongyang because it pursues a Reaganesque strategy, reminiscent of the old Cold War days, of mounting international isolation and an escalating arms race that will hopefully lead to an implosion of the bankrupt North Korean state. The author argues that the real danger from such an uncontrolled escalation of tensions is an accidental outbreak of hostilities contrary to the real intentions of all the parties concerned. Mansourov outlines the initial steps to be required to jump start constructive negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington at the time of total mutual distrust, zero credibility, and personal enmity among leaders. Mansourov is Associate Professor of Security Studies Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies

This essay is by John Fetter, President of FSI Energy, a consulting organization specializing in energy and environmental improvement. Fetter asserts that a gas fired electrical generation strategy would benefit the DPRK for several significant reasons. Gas fired electric generation would provide the DPRK with clean, technologically appropriate, available generation capacity in a reasonable time frame. Gas would also supply industrial fuel and excellent power quality without relying on a limited transmission grid.

This essay is by Marcus Noland, Senior Fellow at the Institute for International Economics. Noland asserts the following three arguments: (1) engagement with the aim of transforming North Korea is a desirable policy from the standpoint of South Korea; (2) collapse and absorption along German lines would not be catastrophic for South Korea; and (3) regardless of South Korea’s stance toward the North, it remains economically vulnerable to the vagaries of North Korean behavior. This paper is to be presented to the Roh Government Transition Team in Seoul, Korea on February 24, 2003.