Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 9 May 2013

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 9 May 2013", NAPSNet Weekly Report, May 09, 2013, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/nautilus-peace-and-security-weekly-9-may-2013/


Image source: U.S. Navy file photo accessed by CRS on February 24, 2011, at http://www.navy.mil/management/photodb/photos/101029-N-1325N-005.jpgDETERRENCE: Declining deterrent patrols indicate too many SSBNs, Hans Kristensen, FAS Strategic Security Blog (30 April 2013)

Since 1999, the number of US strategic submarines (SSBN) deterrent patrols per year has declined by more than 56 percent from 64 patrols in 1999 to 28 in 2012. The decline has reduced annual patrols to the lowest level since 1962. The navy could easily cut the SSBN fleet from 14 to 12 boats, reduce next-generation SSBN from 12 to 10, and save $ billions.


Image source: xinhuanetDPRK: N. Korea moves missile from coast, AFP-JIJI, The Japan Times (7 May 2013)

Tensions continue to decrease on the Korean peninsula and possibly indicate a new status quo in the inter-relationships in Northeast Asia. North Korea has taken a bold – but easily reversible step – by removing their untested missiles.  North Korea mildly toned down their rhetoric. China took two key actions likely to ensure President Park’s upcoming visit to China is smooth. Further reductions in tension will require more steps from all sides.


Image source: AFPGOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: S. Korea rejects ‘incomprehensible’ North demands, AFP (6 May 2013)

The DPRK has said that the ROK must stop its military exercises and other hostile acts, such as anti-DPRK leaflets floated by ROK activists, before the Kaesong Industrial Complex can be reopened, which the ROK rejected. One US expert on the DPRK disputes the US narrative of the DPRK forcing concessions and then reneging on promises and advocates dialogue. The US intelligence world seems to know less and less about the reclusive DPRK.


Image source: ABCCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Impact of the 2010-11 floods and the factors that inhibit and enable household adaptation strategies, Deanne Bird et al., Synthesis and Integrative Research Program, NCCARF (2013) [4.23 MB, PDF]

The study sought to uncover both adaptation enabling and inhibiting factors within the flood affected populations. While there is evidence of community resilience, the factors that inhibit adaptive change emerged more strongly than enabling factors. There are obvious policy implications in these findings that put greater responsibility on all levels of government to educate the community and to facilitate change.


Andy Lee Robinson, Haveland-Robinson AssociatesCLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: White House warned on imminent Arctic ice death spiral, Nafeez Ahmed, Earth Insight, The Guardian (2 May 2013)

Senior US government officials are to be briefed on the danger of an ice-free Arctic in the summer within two years. “This situation has the momentum of a runaway train.” New research suggests that the Arctic summer sea ice loss is linked to extreme weather: “Arctic amplification”.


The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. 

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