Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 7 February 2013

Recommended Citation

Roger Cavazos – DPRK Contributor, "Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 7 February 2013", NAPSNet Weekly Report, February 07, 2013,


See this week’s blog: Practically Unusable: A North Korean Nuclear Device, from our DPRK contributor, Roger Cavazos.

DETERRENCE: Crisis bargaining and nuclear blackmail, Todd Sechserr and Matthew Fuhrmann, International Organization, No. 67 (2013) (PDF, 168KB]

Despite their extraordinary power, nuclear weapons are uniquely poor instruments of compellence. They are neither useful tools of conquest nor low cost tools of punishment. While nuclear weapons may carry coercive weight as instruments of deterrence, these effects do not extend to compellence.

DPRK: What to expect from a North Korean nuclear test, Hecker, Siegfried S,  Foreign Policy Website (4 February 2013)

North Korean appears poised to detonate nuclear devices at any time.  North Korea may detonate multiple devices since they feel they will be sanctioned anyway.  We will likely know very quickly when a test happens. However, we might not know the type of test (HEU and/or plutonium) for a while. China telegraphed their anticipated reaction – diminishing supplies to North Korea and preventing more sanctions from the United States and South Korea. Practically Unusable: A North Korean Nuclear Device

by Roger Cavazos – DPRK Contributor

Exactly when North Korea will detonate another device is anyone’s guess. But let’s remember…

ENERGY SECURITY: US carbon emissions fall to lowest levels since 1994, Suzanne Goldenberg, The Guardian (1 February 2013)

US unemployment is high. Population is growing but getting older. CO2 emissions may be falling also in part due to shifting energy-intensive production overseas. And if nothing else, people sitting around watching Super Bowl are said to have saved energy, just like power outages do.  In Greece, a 450% increase in fuel taxes has driven people to turn to wood in the fireplaces, CO2 emissions from which are not counted in media reporting. Why bother about air pollution? Saving the earth is a priority over saving people. Are television addiction, destitution, and death to be promoted as energy saving? Energy insecurities will become marketable.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Investing in resilience: Ensuring a disaster-resistant future, Asian Development Bank-ADB (2013) [PDF, 5.4MB]

There is an extensive array of disaster risk management tools and mechanisms available in Asia and the Pacific but they are not being applied as often, or as effectively, as they could be. The governments and their development partners need to be encouraged to embark on a coordinated approach to strengthen resilience and working together towards a common vision of a disaster-resilient future.

AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: A maritime Balkans of the 21st century? Kevin Rudd, Foreign Policy (30 January 2013) [Subscription required]

East Asia increasingly resembles a 21st-century maritime redux of the Balkans a century ago – a tinderbox on water. Beijing does not desire armed conflict with Japan, but nonetheless makes clear it has its own red lines that cannot be crossed. Consideration could be given to inviting an international agency to exercise environmental management responsibilities on and around the islands, where, by informal agreement, national vessels would not go.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.

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