- DETERRENCE: Crisis bargaining and nuclear blackmail
- DPRK: What to expect from a North Korean nuclear test
- ENERGY SECURITY: US carbon emissions fall to lowest levels since 1994
- CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Investing in resilience: Ensuring a disaster-resistant future
- AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: A maritime Balkans of the 21st century?
See this week’s blog: Practically Unusable: A North Korean Nuclear Device, from our DPRK contributor, Roger Cavazos.
DETERRENCE: Crisis bargaining and nuclear blackmail, Todd Sechserr and Matthew Fuhrmann, International Organization, No. 67 (2013) (PDF, 168KB]
Despite their extraordinary power, nuclear weapons are uniquely poor instruments of compellence. They are neither useful tools of conquest nor low cost tools of punishment. While nuclear weapons may carry coercive weight as instruments of deterrence, these effects do not extend to compellence.
- Doubts about nuclear deterrence, Part II: Cuba, Ward Wilson, Armscontrolwonk (31 January 2013)
- Deterrence and system management: the case of North Korea, Patrick Morgan, Conflict Management and Peace Science, vol. 23, no. 2 (2006) [subscription required, PDF, 0.13MB]
- North Korean nuclear nationalism and the threat of nuclear war in Korea, Peter Hayes and Scott Bruce, Pacific Focus, vol. 26, no. 1, (3 April 2011) [PDF, 0.2MB]
DPRK: What to expect from a North Korean nuclear test, Hecker, Siegfried S, Foreign Policy Website (4 February 2013)
North Korean appears poised to detonate nuclear devices at any time. North Korea may detonate multiple devices since they feel they will be sanctioned anyway. We will likely know very quickly when a test happens. However, we might not know the type of test (HEU and/or plutonium) for a while. China telegraphed their anticipated reaction – diminishing supplies to North Korea and preventing more sanctions from the United States and South Korea.
- Not all Peninsula issues China’s problems, Global Times (26 January 2013)
- PS 31(Seismic Monitoring Station), Wonju, Republic of Korea facility, CTBTO (2006)
- Sleuthing seismic signals, Walter, Katie, Science and Technology Review (March 2009)
BLOG: Practically Unusable: A North Korean Nuclear Device
by Roger Cavazos – DPRK Contributor
Exactly when North Korea will detonate another device is anyone’s guess. But let’s remember…
ENERGY SECURITY: US carbon emissions fall to lowest levels since 1994, Suzanne Goldenberg, The Guardian (1 February 2013)
US unemployment is high. Population is growing but getting older. CO2 emissions may be falling also in part due to shifting energy-intensive production overseas. And if nothing else, people sitting around watching Super Bowl are said to have saved energy, just like power outages do. In Greece, a 450% increase in fuel taxes has driven people to turn to wood in the fireplaces, CO2 emissions from which are not counted in media reporting. Why bother about air pollution? Saving the earth is a priority over saving people. Are television addiction, destitution, and death to be promoted as energy saving? Energy insecurities will become marketable.
- The Super Bowl saves the country a whole lot of energy, Ariel Schwartz, Fast Company (5 February 2013)
- Rise in Oil Tax Forces Greeks to Face Cold as Ancients Did, Suzanne Daley, New York Times (3 February 2013)
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Investing in resilience: Ensuring a disaster-resistant future, Asian Development Bank-ADB (2013) [PDF, 5.4MB]
There is an extensive array of disaster risk management tools and mechanisms available in Asia and the Pacific but they are not being applied as often, or as effectively, as they could be. The governments and their development partners need to be encouraged to embark on a coordinated approach to strengthen resilience and working together towards a common vision of a disaster-resilient future.
- The resilience renaissance: Unpacking of resilience for tackling climate change and disasters, Aditya V. Bahadur, Maggie Ibrahim and Thomas Tanner, Strengthening Climate Resilience Discussion Paper 1, Institute of Development Studies (2010) [1.41 MB, PDF]
- What does a disaster resilient community look like? The characteristics of a disaster resilient community, Practical Action (2013)
AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: A maritime Balkans of the 21st century? Kevin Rudd, Foreign Policy (30 January 2013) [Subscription required]
East Asia increasingly resembles a 21st-century maritime redux of the Balkans a century ago – a tinderbox on water. Beijing does not desire armed conflict with Japan, but nonetheless makes clear it has its own red lines that cannot be crossed. Consideration could be given to inviting an international agency to exercise environmental management responsibilities on and around the islands, where, by informal agreement, national vessels would not go.
- Australia-Japan Defence Relationship, Stephen Smith, Minister for Defence, media release (1 February 2013)
- Mali must keep us on our toes, Greg Sheridan, The Australian (31 January 2013)
- US signs deal with Niger to operate military drones in west African state, Paul Harris and Afua Hirsch, The Guardian (29 January 2013)
The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.
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- Deterrence: Peter Hayes
- Governance and Civil Society: Dyana Mardon, Yi Kiho
- Climate Change Adaptation: Saleem Janjua
- DPRK: Roger Cavazos
- Energy Security: Nikhil Desai
- Austral Peace and Security: Richard Tanter