Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 6 December 2012

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 6 December 2012", NAPSNet Weekly Report, December 06, 2012,


DETERRENCE:  China conducts flight landing on aircraft carrier, Xinhua (24 November 2012)

Xinhua reports that a J15 fighter plane landed on Liaoning, China’s first aircraft carrier. Although China has latecomer and espionage advantages, this occurs 90 years after the US Navy first landed aircraft on the carrier Langley on October 17, 1922; and as it test lands pilotless drone aircraft on carriers.

DPRK: N. Korea’s rocket launch ‘baptism by fire’ for China’s new leadership, Kim Young-gyo, Yonhap News Agency (4 December 2012)

North Korea riled most countries with its announcement to fire a missile/test a satellite.  While the technologies are not completely identical, they are extremely similar.  DPRK almost certainly plans to launch based on domestic factors and is therefore relatively resistant to any of the outside influence the international community is likely to support.  However, Sino-DPRK long-term relationship damage is difficult to assess right now.

ENERGY SECURITY: Global water crisis: too little, too much, or lack of a plan? William Wheeler, Christian Science Monitor (2 December 2012)

Not only is water the most significant greenhouse gas, a co-product of fossil fuel combustion, and important to power generation, it is also the key mediator of climate change, the adverse effect of which mostly have to do water, too little or too much. Putting a price on water is out, but the drum-beat of “paying for it” (carbon tax, fee) is getting louder. Whom paying whom for what? How much tax is just right, not too high or low? Who knows? Tithe to the church of deception, the gullible dolts in thrall to glib pretenders.

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Poll shows strains in China-Japan-S. Korea ties, Zhang Yunbi and Zhou Wa, China Daily (26 November 2012)

North Korea’s planned launch attempt will further strain the already tense relations between the ROK, China and Japan as new leadership takes over in each country. A recent poll shows public feeling between the neighbors is at an all-time low. The US may not be helping the situation by introducing a bill that regards the Diaoyu Islands as falling under the authority of the US-Japan security pact.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Climate change vulnerability and the identification of least developed countries, Matthias Bruckner, United Nations Development Policy and Analysis Division, US Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2012) [622 KB, PDF]

Many least-developed countries (LDCs) are located in parts of the world that are expected to be badly affected by temperature and precipitation changes. Due to their low level of development, LDCs are also less resilient to negative external events and have lower capacity to adapt than other developing countries. This increased vulnerability is seen as unfair, as LDCs have contribut­ed to climate change, by emitting greenhouse gases or by changing their land-use patterns, only marginally.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Climate change, migration, and conflict in South Asia: rising tensions and policy options across the subcontinent, Arpita Bhattacharyya and Michael Werz, Center for American Progress (December 2012) [PDF, 2.68MB]

U.S. policymakers need to include India in their Asia pivot, which boasts the added benefit of making clear the pivot is not about outdated Cold War theories of containment. Tensions over Chinese claims on Arunachal Pradesh and Tawang are likely to be heightened by climate change. It seems unlikely India would allow crucial water supplies to be lost, particularly as climate change increases the overall stress on agriculture and basic livelihoods.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.

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