Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 5 September 2013

• DETERRENCE: Statement on Chemical Weapons Use in Syria and the International Response
  
• DPRK: Engaging enemies: Fraught with Risk, Necessary for Peace
  
• ENERGY SECURITY: Climate at Five Minutes to Midnight: IPCC Head
  
• GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Assembly Mulls Rebellion Arrest
  
• CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Supporting Decision-Making for Effective Adaptation
  
• AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY:  Australian Spies in Global Deal to Tap Undersea Cables

DETERRENCE: Statement on Chemical Weapons Use in Syria and the International Response, Daryl Kimball, Arms Control NOW, (August 28, 2013)

The August 21, 2013 chemical attack against civilians is a war crime.  Responsible Syrians must be tried at the International Criminal Court.   The US cannot safely strike chemical weapons sites because some may not be known; may cause more civilian chemical casualties; and may be seized by militia or terrorist groups.

• Pentagon Testing Ways To Destroy Chemical Weapons, Tom Vanden Brook, USA Today, (August 30, 2013)
• Syrian chemical weapons and the North Korean connection, Nate Thayer, NK News, (August 28, 2013)

DPRK: Engaging enemies: Fraught with Risk, Necessary for Peace, Mel Gurtov, Global Asia, (June 2013)

An uncharacteristically humble Dennis Rodman is visiting Pyongyang for basketball diplomacy.  Rodman is clearly downplaying any expectations that he will come back with the arrested American Ken Bae.   Hope springs eternal that this visit marks the inflection point where Kim is really ready to deal with the outside. There are numerous means to engage North Korea.  Maintaining peace is always the goal; not talking for talks’ sake.

• American Basketball Star Rodman visits North Korea again, (Chinese) People’s Daily Online, (4 September 2013) [Chinese language]
• Engaging North Korea: The Role of Economic Statecraft, Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland, the East-West Center (July 2011)
• Disarming strangers: Nuclear diplomacy with North Korea, Lee Sigal, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Wednesday Seminars (7 May 1998)

ENERGY SECURITY: Climate at Five Minutes to Midnight: IPCC Head, Agence France Presse (3 September 2013)

While the forthcoming IPCC report has yet to be released, this author assumes that despite the complexity of the data, it will include arguments for the need to act before it is too late. Recently the  UNSG reported that “the world’s quest for dignity, peace, prosperity, justice, sustainability and an end to poverty has reached an unprecedented moment of urgency.” Reports may not adequately reflect the immediate needs of the world’s poor.

• ‘Climate scientists too easily jump to conclusions’, Judith Hartl, Deutsche Welle (3 September 2009)
• A life of dignity for all: accelerating progress towards the Millennium Development Goals and advancing the United Nations development agenda beyond 2015: Report of the Secretary General, Sixty-eighth session of the General Assembly [July 26 2013], UN Press Release (26 August 2013)
• Tibet: life on the climate front line, Leslie Hook, Financial Times (30 August 2013)

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Assembly Mulls Rebellion Arrest, Joongang Ilbo (3 September 2013)

A group of lawmakers from a ROK minority leftist party, including a sitting Assemblyman, have been arrested on charges of conspiracy against the state under the National Security Law. Some question motives for the arrest considering recent, spreading protests against the National Intelligence Service and whether evidence is adequate to support a conspiracy charge.

• Leftist Lawmaker Under Fire From Rival Parties, Yonhap (3 September 2013)
• Candlelight Protests Spreading Across the Country, Oh Yoon-joo, Jung Dae-ha, Kim Il-woo and Park In-geun, Hankyoreh (22 August 2013)

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Supporting Decision-Making for Effective Adaptation, NCCARF policy guidance brief 3, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility – NCCARF (2013)

Disconnect between the reality of model data and the expectations of users remains an issue in developing knowledge on future climates to underpin adaptation decision-making. Decision-makers should ask themselves whether there is a real need for complex, detailed, and often time consuming and expensive to produce, information on future climates that may have a low degree of certainty. In fact, broad-brush information on climate changes may be sufficient to do an exploratory examination, which may in turn be highly revealing of where the exposure and sensitivities to climate change lie.

• Choosing a decision-making framework to manage uncertainty in climate adaptation decision-making: A practitioner’s handbook, Alan Randall et al., National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility – NCCARF (2012)
• Climate adaptation: risk, uncertainty and decision-making, UKCIP Technical Report. UK Climate Impacts Programme-UKCIP (2003)

AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY:  Australian Spies in Global Deal to Tap Undersea Cables, Philip Dorling, Canberra Times (29 August 2013)

The Australian Signals Directorate partners British, American and Singaporean intelligence agencies to tap undersea fibre optic cables that link Asia, the Middle East and Europe. The SEA-ME-WE-3 cable that runs from Japan to Germany is one of the most important undersea cables accessed by the NSA. Singaporean intelligence co-operates with Australia in accessing and sharing communications carried by the cable which lands at Tuas on the western side of Singapore Island.

• US Marine Force in Darwin, Australia Boosts to 1,000 Next Year; Rise to MEU Force Proceeds, Colin Clark, Breaking Defense (11 July 2013)
• Marines Come Ashore to Share their Toys, Conor Byrne, Northern Territory News (29 August 2013)
• CNO’s Navigation Plan 2014 – 2018, Chief of Naval Operations, US Navy

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.