Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 4 April 2013

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 4 April 2013", NAPSNet Weekly Report, April 04, 2013,

See today’s Policy Forum: Carbo Cult, by Nikhil Desai, Energy Security contributor

DETERRENCE: The state of deterrence in international politics today, Patrick Morgan, Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 33, no. 1 (April 2012) [PDF, 165KB]

The US is a revolutionary state of sorts promoting societal and regime change. This poses an existential threat to numerous states, incites military build-ups or nuclear weapons programs to deter extending such ‘attacks’ into direct military ones. Deterrence now is often being sought or practiced against the West.

DPRK: Chinese editor suspended for article on North Korea, Perlez, Jane, The New York Times, (1 April 2013)

China suspended an editor who wrote an article critical of North Korea and likely indicates debate within China on North Korea is finished. North Korea responded to unprecedented U.S. shows of force by saying they will re-start the Nyongbyon nuclear reactor.  The technical issues of North Korea’s nuclear reactor are not new.  North Korea’s Central Committee Plenary emphasized the economy in addition to “military first” songun policy.

ENERGY SECURITY:  European industry flocks to cheap U.S. gas, Michael  Birnbaum, Washington Post (1 April 2013)

European industry sees energy security in lower costs and is shifting production to the US. On the other hand, the IMF is back to its “raise taxes, cut subsidies, balance the budget on the backs of the poor” tricks. It could not save the world from a financial collapse and massive unemployment – which, incidentally, restored its own relevance and made it indispensable for rescue – and is now trying to save the earth in 2100, 2200, its General Equilibrium Models running in tandem with the climate General Circulation Models. Meanwhile, the grand-father of climate change awareness has doubts about what really is going on.

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Japan shifts from pacifism as anxiety in region rises, Martin Fackler, New York Times (1 April 2013)

Japan looks to be shifting from its pacifist military policies amid heightening regional tensions, with a Japanese Defense Ministry-commissioned study finding China to be disregarding its neighbors. China is on heightened alert in response to rising tensions on the Korean peninsula and the DPRK’s decision to restart a plutonium reactor. The ROK is creating a “proactive deterrence strategy” to enable it to react to a contingency without US consultation.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Leading adaptation practices and support strategies for Australia: An international and Australian review of products and tools, synthesis and integrative research final report, Robert Webb and Jie-lian Beh, NCCARF (2013) [1.83 MB, PDF]

The development of products to support adaptation practice and decision making is currently highly fragmented in Australia, leading to some confusion amongst end users and insufficient critical mass and continuity of resourcing to provide sustained product support and improvement. For public, private and community sector organizations grappling with adaptation decisions there is a significant support gap, and an urgent need for products that will provide better guidance and more confidence.

AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Military ties that bind us, Peter Jennings, The Australian (2 April 2013)

Senior US officials in Washington have been puzzled by a perceived cooling of Australian support for enhanced co-operation. It would be nothing short of a disaster if a slowing momentum in support for the enhanced defence co-operation with the US meant that planned co-operation was delayed or cut. The penny has still to drop in Canberra that the price of closeness with the US is higher American expectations of what capacities we will bring to the defence table.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. 

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