Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 29 November 2012

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Peter Hayes – Deterrence Contributor, "Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 29 November 2012", NAPSNet Weekly Report, November 29, 2012, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/nautilus-peace-and-security-weekly-29-november-2012/

CONTENTS

See this week’s blog: Political Rocketry, from our Deterrence contributor, Peter Hayes.


DETERRENCE:  Characterizing the North Korean nuclear missile threat, Technical Report, Markus Schiller, RAND (2012) [PDF, 6.4MB]

The main purpose of the DPRK’s long-range missile program is political: to create the impression of a serious missile threat and thereby gain strategic leverage, fortify the regime’s domestic power, and deter military action against it by the US and the ROK.  Its missile operational readiness is secondary and its threat exaggerated.


BLOG: Political Rocketry

by Peter Hayes – Deterrence Contributor

North Korea’s rocketeers reportedly are busy bees at the Sohae launch site.  Why now?…


DPRK: Korea, China hold strategic dialogue, Shin Hyon-hee, Korea Herald (26 November 2012)

North Korea has complicated relationships with Asia. South Korea met with China’s Communist Party International Department – significant since that organization also handles Sino-DPRK relations, not the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  North Korean remains a proliferation concern, although soon-expiring US-South Korea 123 agreements offer an opportunity to address non-proliferation issues like reprocessing in a nuclear weapons free zone.


ENERGY SECURITY: Time is running out: the Doha climate talks must put an end to excuses, John Vidal, Guardian (25 November 2012)

Time is running out again. The annual circus of breast beating acrobatics, hot air heroics, and parading wild animals has begun. An UNCTAD economist says the UN SE4All will lead to a catastrophe because poor people will want more energy if they get it. Oxfam is scaring us of a “climate fiscal cliff”, and others are talking about compensation for “loss and damage”. Blaming climate change is a nice excuse for failure to regulate land use and build infrastructure for flood control, or prevent malaria, diarrhea, malnutrition, and severe water/air pollution.


GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Rocket tit-for-tat in the Koreas? David Wright, All Things Nuclear (26 November 2012)

South Korea will attempt to launch a satellite into orbit from its own soil after two previously failed attempts, using technology partly developed in the ROK. Movement at the DPRK launch site suggests another launch attempt will take place soon. In a speech to the UN, the DPRK reiterated its plans to continue working and commercial satellite launches and that these launches do not fall under UN sanctions.


CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Integrating climate resilience strategy into city planning in Semarang, Indonesia, Ratri Sutarto and Jim Jarvie, Climate resilience working paper series, ISET (2012) [866 KB, PDF]

The government of the city of Semarang (Indonesia) has worked to develop a climate resilience strategy (CRS). This defines prioritized actions reducing vulnerability to climate change. Moreover, the local development planning board of Semarang oversees city working group (CWG) management and responsibilities in planning, and use of public development funds. The implementation of this integrated process and how it succeeded in incorporating climate change into city planning in Semarang need to be reviewed.


AUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: US pivot bumps Asian economic reality, Peter Lee, Asia Times (22 November 2012)

Q: My name is Dino Djalal; I am ambassador of Indonesia [to the US]. I noticed you described India as a strategic partner and a different term for China. My question is, what do you see as the qualitative difference between India and China?

MR. DONILON: The relationship with India is rooted in history and it’s and it’s rooted in a shared system of democracy.  And it is a unique relationship that we’re building out. The relationship with China is more complex.


The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.

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