Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 24 July

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 24 July", NAPSNet Weekly Report, July 24, 2014,

DETERRENCE: “North Korean Missiles Passing through Chinese Air Routes is Very Dangerous,” Wang Hongguang, translated by Adam Cathcart, SinoNK, March 12, 2014.

A DPRK missile fired on  from Wonsan 0717 GMT March 4 2014 re-entered through the Shenyang-Tokyo air traffic route within 7 minutes of China Southern Airlines flight CZ628 with finite risk of collision.  PLA General Wang: “The behavior of the North Korean side has been extremely unfriendly toward China.”

金正恩指导足球DPRK: U.S. and S. Korean Authorities Warned of their Reckless Acts. (North) Korea Central News Agency  (21 July 2014)

North Korea may be taking first steps at defining a “threat” which may indicate first steps at negotiations since North Korea has never formally defined “threat” or “hostile attitude”.  How North Korea defines those issues can be a prelude to talks – or set the stage for future blame.  Discussions about the Asian Games appear to have broken down, but do not necessarily indicate a schism inside North Korea on whether or not to engage with the South.  Despite increased signs of normal relations between China and North Korea, there are no indications of a complete rupture to the relationship.  Nor are there signs of a relationship that will be immediately rehabilitated.  However, the long term trends indicate China and South Korea will continue to grow much closer both as a way for China to supplant the U.S.-ROK relationship and to ensure access on the peninsula for the long term.

ENERGY SECURITY: Climate Skeptics are Losing their Grip, Martin Wolf, Opinion, Financial Times (8 July 2014)

Economists rush in where scientists fear to tread. Wolf accepts that “any such certainty on the science would be ridiculous, so asserts, “The political debate for sensible policy will be won if and only if two things happen: first, people must believe the impact of climate change could be both large and costly; second, they must believe the costs of mitigation would be tolerable.” Easy. Call modelers. Religions need dire threats and cheap escape routes.

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Fujisawa SSTGOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: 80% of Municipalities Eager to Promote Renewable Energy, Asahi Shimbun (22 July 2014)

With no nuclear reactors back online still, local communities and companies in Japan are looking to renewable energies to revitalize development. Renewables are seen as a way to ensure energy independence for regions and to create jobs by producing parts for machinery locally. Opposition parties are continuing to find success with candidates running on anti-nuclear platforms.

lsecities.netCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: City Resilience Framework: City Resilience Index, Rockefeller Foundation and Arup International Development (April 2014) [8.17 MB, PDF]

Cities have always faced risks, and many cities that have existed for centuries have demonstrated their resilience in the face of resource shortages, natural hazards, and conflict. In the 21st century, global pressures that play out at a city scale – such as climate change, disease pandemics, economic fluctuations, and terrorism – pose new challenges.

2.bp.blogspot.comAUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: SBIRS, SIGINT and the MH17 Tragedy (Updated), Marco Langbroek, Sattrackcam Leiden (18 July 2014)

US official sources indicated DSP or SBIRS early warning satellites observed the launch of the missile that downed the MH-17 airliner. The infrared imagery data was downlinked to NSA facilities at Menwith Hill (UK) or Pine Gap (Australia) for relay to NSA HQ at Fort Meade. US early warning and SIGINT facilities acting for a global public good in this instance indicate the wider need for multilateral access to such resources for global, rather than unilateral, security.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.


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