Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 18 April 2013

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 18 April 2013", NAPSNet Weekly Report, April 18, 2013,

Image source: www.fas.orgDETERRENCE:  What North Korean intelligence listens to, Mark Ambinder, The Week (5 April 2013)

USAF and US STRATCOM used a new format for Emergency Action Messages just as the DPRK crisis escalated. If you’re North Korea, and you are listening, you’ll notice that your main adversary is no longer communicating with its nuclear forces in the same way. This suggests that something is up.

dprk imageDPRK: Negotiating with North Korea: 1992-2007, Robert Carlin and John W. Lewis, Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation, January 2008), [PDF, 1.4 MB]

North Korea’s statements are moderating somewhat and things appear to be escalating at a much slower pace.  However, pinpointing the exact cause is difficult since so many different levers were simultaneously pulled.  China’s decision to speak authoritatively via the People’s Daily indicated China internationalized issues on the Korean Peninsula and guaranteed South Korea a seat at future talks.  North Korea’s rejection of talks is not absolute.

Image source: Wolfgang Rattay/ReutersENERGY SECURITY: Europe vote sets back carbon plan, Stanley Reed, New York Times (16 April 2013)

So the hot air balloon might be stalled. Some people got tired of paying dearly to watch the spectacle. From some € 25 a ton in 2008, the price of carbon allowances fell to € 7 a ton last year, to around € 3 a ton this past Tuesday, and might fall to the level of late 2001 share prices for Enron, an early promoter of carbon cap-and-trade system. Emissions keep rising, and subsidies to clean energy are being cut. What this portends for the new international climate policy regime, only time will tell. CO2 is just another air pollutant, if that.

Image source: APGOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Hope that Kerry and China can bring N. Korea into dialogue, Park Byong-su, Hankyoreh (16 April 2013)

US Secretary of State Kerry’s visit to the region has led to hope of relaxed tensions as the US indicated its willingness to meet with the DPRK bilaterally. The DPRK responded that an apology is required before talks between the US and ROK can occur. The shutting down of the Kaesong Industrial Complex is having repercussions for ROK businesses, and some analysts feel it is a push back against the growing exposure of workers to capitalism.

climateadapt imageCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Building resilient coastal communities and ecosystems, NCCARF policy guidance brief 1, NCCARF (2013)

Around 85% of Australians live within 50 km of the coast. Today, these people are exposed to flood and cyclone damage. Under a changing climate, the potential for damage to homes, infrastructure and ecosystems will be made worse by sea-level rise and inundation, especially in areas where windstorms become more frequent and/or more severe. Adaptation to manage these challenges will be essential.

Austral imageAUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: Planning the unthinkable war: ‘AirSea Battle’ and its implications for Australia, Benjamin Schreer, Australian Security Policy Institute (April 2013) [PDF, 2.18KB]

The implications of AirSea Battle for Australia are far from trivial. After all, this is about a potential military escalation with a major nuclear power. Fully embracing the logic behind AirSea Battle is so far not in Australia’s interests. Openly signing up for the concept would send a strong political message to China that the ADF is now actively planning and equipping for a potential war with the PL A. There’s no need to do so.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. 

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