Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 17 October 2013

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 17 October 2013", NAPSNet Weekly Report, October 17, 2013,

image source: shutterstockDETERRENCE: Extended Deterrence, Assurance, and Reassurance in the Pacific during the Second Nuclear Age, L. Brooks and M. Rapp-Hooper, in Asia in the Second Nuclear Age, A. Tellis, et al, ed, NBR, October 2013

Chinese strategists see “strategic stability” as a Cold War construct denoting competition. Americans reserve the term to describe a balance between two roughly equivalent nuclear powers. Neither agrees on how the term applies to Sino-US relations. [PDF, 4.6MB, subscription] NDC of DPRK Clarifies Principled Stand on DPRK-U.S. Relations, (North) Korea Central News Agency (12 October 2013)

North Korea responded to a U.S. offer of a non-aggression agreement with a statement from their National Defense Commission (NDC).  Predictably, the NDC does not accept the terms. But North Korea also left itself diplomatic space by not issuing a statement from Kim Jong-un. The NDC also mentions sanctions; Westerners may interpret this as a point of negotiations. China and North Korea recently held their 65th hydro-power council meeting.

photo source: nature.comENERGY SECURITY: Climate Science: Rising Tide, Nicola Jones, Nature [18 September 2013]

Some models predict less than 1 meter of sea level rise by 2100, some up to 2 meters. Says an ice modeler at the Brussels Free University, “The only advantage of these models is that they’re easy to calculate. I think they’re wrong.” But isn’t the ease of calculations a primary determinant of developing or testing any model, and aren’t computational models changed as computing power increases and it is possible to introduce more detailed specifications and allow more simultaneous determinations? Choice of models and methods is key. While science takes a few decades to become definitive, more rich people and poor live close to coasts.

shutterstock_103827197GOVERNANCE & CIVIL SOCIETY: Putting North Korea Aid Efforts On The Map, Jonathan Cheng, Wall Street Journal (15 October 2013) has developed an interactive map of non-governmental aid efforts in the DPRK since 1995, showing a range of projects and trends of working-level engagement correlating to the DPRK’s relations with its neighbors. On the government side, the ROK will continue humanitarian aid to the DPRK despite the current cool in relations, while the DPRK may be changing its stance towards a nukes-for-aid deal.

Photo source: CHANGE ADAPTATION: Loss And Damage: A Range Of Approaches To Address Loss And Damage From Climate Change Impacts In Bangladesh, Ainun Nishat, Nandan Mukherjee, Erin Roberts and Anna Hasemann, Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Research (C3ER), BRAC University, Bangladesh (June 2013) [602 KB, PDF]

While climate change induced loss and damage is being discussed at the global level, it is being incurred at the local level. For those experiencing it, the concept of loss and damage at the policy level has no meaning, but its impacts do. Thus, it is important to understand how loss and damage is being experienced within states and communities and more importantly, how it can be addressed and ultimately reduced.

photo source: PEACE AND SECURITY: US Leaves Door Open on Nuclear Subs, John Kerin, Australian Financial Review, (9 October 2013)

Former Labor and Liberal defence ministers support Australia acquiring 10 to 12 Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines. Double the size and complement of Australia’s disastrous domestically built Collins class submarines, the 7,900 tonne submarines cost about $US 2.5 billion each. With US procurement for the Virginia program under threat, US wants more support from its allies, including submarine support US Asia Pacific forces.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. 

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