NAUTILUS PEACE AND SECURITY WEEKLY

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"NAUTILUS PEACE AND SECURITY WEEKLY", NAPSNet Weekly Report, July 18, 2012, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/nautilus-peace-and-security-weekly-14/

19 July 2012

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. Each week, one of our authors also provides a short blog that explores these inter-relationships.

CONTENTS

See this week’s blog from our Energy Security contributor, Nikhil Desai.

DETERRENCE:  Nuclear proliferation – looking back, thinking ahead: how bad would the further spread of nuclear weapons be?  Francois Heisbourg, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (4 April 2012) [PDF 0.1MB]

The French concept (2008) of ‘ruptures stratégiques’ describes rapid, unexpected, morphing upsets of international security due to globalization against the backdrop of urbanizing populations, economic growth and environmental and resource constraints.

DPRK: N. Korea replaces army chief, Press TV (17 July  2012)

North Korea removed General Ri Yong-Ho from military and political posts in a surprise announcement. Moreover, the “illness” reason possibly foreshadows a “contagion” effect and many more changes. This is yet another indicator that Kim Jong-Un’s rule is secure and becoming even more secure.  Chinese infrastructure improvements near the North Korean border facilitate economic, political and military goals simultaneously.

ENERGY SECURITY:  Heat wave adds to misery of storms, power outages in East, Matt Pearce and Melanie Mason, Los Angeles Times, (2 July 2012)

A derecho hit Washington, DC area June 30th night, knocking out power supply to many, for up to several days, in the midst of a scorching “heat wave”. Heat waves and power outages have afflicted many other parts of the US, also suffering from a severe drought. These, and recent UK floods, raise concerns about extreme climatic events. A week earlier, Rio+20 ended without much hope for some 3 billion people with no or only unreliable power.

Check out this week’s Energy Security blog: Powerlessness – at the top and the bottom of the pyramid: Part I

 GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Nuclear-free movement attracts new breed to massive Tokyo rally, Hiroshi Matsubara, Asahi Shimbun (16 July 2012)

In the largest protest since the Fukushima disaster, up to 170,000 protestors rallied against nuclear power in Tokyo, drawing a diverse crowd of activists, artists, students and families. A poll found 71% of respondents opposed a restart at the Oi reactor. The government is under fire for limiting and possibly manipulating citizen input at public hearings for nuclear policy. In Jordan, activists delivered a petition to the ROK embassy protesting about the construction of reactors.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Adaptation to climate change: formulating policy under uncertainty, Leo Dobes, CCEP working paper 1201, Crawford School of Economics and Government, Australian National University (2012) [658 KB, PDF]

Economists were able to formulate and recommend policy approaches for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (mitigation) by drawing on an existing body of economic theory related to externalities.  However, no comparably straightforward approach has yet  emerged  in  the  adaptation  literature,  possibly  due  to  the  diffuse  nature  of climatic effects that may occur in very diverse geographical locations.

 CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: US official: Higher ocean acidity is climate change’s ‘evil twin,’ major threat to coral reefs, Associated Press, Washington Post (9 July 2011)

The rise in the acid levels of the world’s oceans has emerged as one of the biggest threats to coral reefs, acting as the “osteoporosis of the sea” and threatening everything from food security to tourism to livelihoods, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief Jane Lubchenco said. The speed by which the oceans’ acid levels have risen caught scientists off-guard, with the problem now considered to be climate change’s “equally evil twin”. “We’re just beginning to uncover ways in which the changing chemistry of oceans affects behaviours.”

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