Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 13 February 2014

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 13 February 2014", NAPSNet Weekly Report, February 13, 2014,

deterrence imageDETERRENCE: The economic geography of North Korean drug trafficking networks, Justin Hastings, University of Sydney (January 2014)

The DPRK state sponsored drug trafficking primarily during famine and aftermath to fund the military, via planes and ships from ports such as Nampo. Since 2005, the state cracked down, but the network is robust with little spread beyond coastal waters; and over the land border into China.

dprk imageDPRK: Rival Koreas to resume high-level talks, Al Jazeera (11 Feb 2014)

North Korea likely has all the technical means to test either a missile or a nuclear device but has likely not done so because they assess the time is not right. It is unclear what length of time or what activities may cause them to act. Empirical history suggests Pyongyang’s reward threshold is easier to reach than its pain threshold.  North Korea appears to be talking with the South and with Japan. North Korea’s delegation is led by the United Front Department indicating the talks are primarily political.

energy imageENERGY SECURITY: Killer Typhoon: What made Haiyan so destructive, and how can we prepare for the next monster storm? PBS show Nova (22 January 2014) [Video, approx. 1 hour]

There is no telling when or where the next monster storm would strike and how, but planning by fantasy is a cult. Surely not by cutting Philippines use of fossil fuels, which run the lifeline of sea and land transport and also run electricity generators in remote areas. Making only the counts matter and not counting what matters to the people pretentious punditry of models. One example is the ongoing war against Keystone pipeline portions in the US.

Gov imageGOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Virginia vote on Sea of Japan hands victory to Koreans, Gary Robertson, Reuters (6 February 2014)

Regional territorial disputes between Japan and the ROK entered the US domestic arena last week, as Virginia approved a bill stipulating that school textbooks must use both the “Sea of Japan” and “East Sea” for the body of water separating the two countries. Other US states are now considering similar bills. In Japan, publications criticizing Korean and Chinese society and politics have seen a significant increase in popularity and sales.

Carbon DioxideCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Living with environmental change: waterworlds, Kirsten Hastrup and Cecilie Rubow (editors), 3004 pp, Routledge (to be published on 25th February 2014)

Experiences indicate that climate change phenomenon cannot be understood through scientific data, theories and climate modeling alone. It is also critical to look at what climate change means to individuals or communities living in different locations. Therefore, the anthropological analysis of climate change is no less important than its scientific study. Rather than something to be frightened of, climate change is becoming part of the way in which humans and their cultures repeatedly respond to the future and in so doing they re-shape it as well.

cLIMATESEC IMAGECLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Migration and Environmental Change in Asia, Graeme Hugo and Douglas K. Bardsley, in People on the Move in a Changing Climate: The Regional Impact of Environmental Change on Migration, Etienne Piguet and Frank Laczko (eds.), Springer, pp. 21-38. (2014)

Though pathways are complex, the security consequences of climate change involve global equity and justice. Minimally, without a shared global norm of fairness, climate agreements will be difficult. Migration will very likely induce conflict in Asia, but, optimistically, “if sound policy could be implemented in a timely manner, new forms and scales of population mobility could be harnessed to reduce poverty and enhance economic and social development.”

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.


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