Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 11 April 2013

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"Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly – 11 April 2013", NAPSNet Weekly Report, April 11, 2013,

DETERRENCE:  Do unto others: toward a defensible nuclear doctrine, George Perkovich, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (1 April 2013) [PDF, 0.9MB]

The US should declare that it possesses nuclear weapons only to respond to, and thereby deter or defeat, threats to its survival or that of its allies, particularly stemming from any use of nuclear weapons. This policy would raise the threshold of nuclear use to “threats to survival” instead of “extreme circumstances.”

DPRK: North Korea missile profile, The Nuclear Threat Initiative (February 2013)

There is always a danger of miscalculation on the peninsula, but if the past is any guide, the cooler heads will prevail, even if there is a miscalculation. Tensions are presently high, but there have been even more tense times. When crisis communications are required, both sides know how to establish them. North Korea’s missile capabilities

ENERGY SECURITY: Crabs, supersized by carbon pollution, may upset Chesapeake’s balance, Darryl Fears, The Washington Post (9 April 2013)

Acidification of the Chesapeake Bay may be a parable for the impacts of climate change. While “pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into rebuilding the populations of blue crabs and oysters for future generations”- and keep alive traditional occupations of some people – crabs, lobsters and shrimp are “bulking up on carbon dioxide along the Atlantic coast” while oysters and corals suffer. Similarly, GHGs “might ruin the romantic strategies of people everywhere”. Zero-carbon renewable energy will not save us all. GHGs from the US may keep rising with new oil and gas; renewable energy will not prove to be the saviour.

GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: In sign of Chinese frustration with North Korea, ‘Daily Show’ clip mocking Kim racks up 2.8 million Chinese views, Max Fisher, Washington Post (9 April 2013) 

A clip from “The Daily Show” poking fun at the DPRK has had over 2.8 million views in China despite its typically small viewership in the country, perhaps signaling a growing frustration with the DPRK relationship. Despite the harsh rhetoric recently, a senior DPRK official assured Chinese tour operators that there will be “no war on the Korean Peninsula.” A majority of Americans now feel that the DPRK’s nuclear threats should be taken “very seriously.”

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Disaster-induced internal displacement in the Philippines: The case of tropical storm Washi/Sendong, Justin Ginnetti et al., Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Switzerland (2013) [2.15 MB, PDF]

The Philippines has been ranked the tenth-most-vulnerable country to climate change. To put the Philippines’ disaster risk into perspective, there are approximately equal numbers of people exposed to tropical cyclones in Japan and the Philippines. A cyclone of the same intensity would kill 17 times more Filipinos due to the nation’s greater level of vulnerability, particularly the poor standards of Philippine housing and infrastructure and the numbers of vulnerable people settling in at-risk areas.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Climate change: source of conflict or promoter of cooperation? Tobias Ide and Jürgen Scheffran, University of Hamburg Research Group Climate Change and Security, Working Paper CLISEC-26 (2013) [PDF, 415KB]

Three perspectives provide a different answer to the question whether climate change is a source of violent conflict onset: the Climate Conflict perspective, the Social Conflict perspective, and the Environmental Peace perspective, which suggests that environmental problems, resource scarcity and natural disasters may provide opportunities for cooperative behavior. The central question is under which conditions the claims of each perspectives are valid. 

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region. 

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