Nautilus Peace and Security – 4 September

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"Nautilus Peace and Security – 4 September", NAPSNet Weekly Report, September 04, 2014,

29-putin-seliger-camp.w529.h352DETERRENCE: Don’t Mess with Nuclear Russia, Putin says, Alexei Anishchuk, Reuters (August 29, 2014)

President Putin: “Russia’s partners…should understand it’s best not to mess with us…Thank God, I think no one is thinking of unleashing a large-scale conflict with Russia. I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers.” Is this swaggering braggadocio unlinked to a specific threat? Or is it linked implicitly to the Ukrainian conflict?

DPRK: U.S. Officials Visited N. Korea before Joint Exercise: Report. GlobalPost (28 August 2014).

North Korea is significantly increasing its external contacts which indicate DPRK internal changes.  However, it is unclear exactly what has changed internal to the DPRK or their ultimate strategic objective.  Perhaps DPRK wants to move away from China, perhaps it wishes to move toward the US.  Both courses of action are consistent with internal strengthening or internal fractures.  DPRK sometimes created situations which were doomed to failure in order to conduct internal purges. An official US delegation visited Pyongyang, North Korea’s Foreign Minister will visit the UN, another North Korean diplomat will visit Europe and foreign wrestlers returned to the North Korean stage after two decades of absence. Increased cultural exchanges are consistent with past US-North Korea joint statements on bettering relationships.

Close up of the North Korean flag, square imageGOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Joint Survey reflects Shifting Perspectives on Unification, Koo Jun Hoe, Daily NK (27 August 2014)

A poll of ROK students and educators shows a majority supporting unification with the DPRK, citing instability and the threat of war as the main reasons. The same poll was seen differently by some conservative media outlets, pointing out instead that 20 percent of those surveyed do not support unification. Negative feelings in DPRK citizens towards the ROK seem to be increasing, while others pursue a new type of “sports diplomacy” with the DPRK.

Image for 4-9-14CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Risky Business: the Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States, A Climate Risk Assessment for the United States, Kate Gordon et al., Risky Business, United States (June 2014)

The American economy faces multiple and significant risks from climate change. The signature effects of human-induced climate change – rising seas, increased damage from storm surge, more frequent bouts of extreme heat – all have specific, measurable impacts on U.S. current assets and ongoing economic activity. However, the U.S. can still avoid most of the worst impacts and significantly reduce the odds of costly climate outcomes by acting now.

Agni-II_missile_(Republic_Day_Parade_2004)ENERGY SECURITY: Indian Nuclear Must Grow 15 Times for Clean Future, IEA, World Nuclear News (4 August 2014)

Brothers-in-arms Modi and Sharif are holding out hopes for Messrs. Obama, Hollande, Abe, and Xi, on the one hand, and promising the moon to their peoples, on the other, about civilian nuclear power, a technology whose time never really came and is now a centuries-long legacy for the world to deal with in the form of its by-products. Modi’s first budget gives a lot for domestic breeders and other fancies, and little to the commercial nuclear power. IEA dreams on.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.

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