Nautilus Peace and Security – 16 October

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"Nautilus Peace and Security – 16 October", NAPSNet Weekly Report, October 16, 2014,

UntitledDETERRENCE: Israel And The Demise Of “Mowing The Grass,” T.X. Hammes, War On the Rocks Blog, August 19, 2014

Hammes argues that Israel’s “mowing the grass” strategy to periodically disrupt Hamas’ ability to attack Israel rests on the crude nature of their weapons.  Long-range precision air, ground and sub-surface precision weapons will be available and affordable to non-state actors and insurgent movements, rendering occupations and blockades difficult, maybe impossible.

2014-10-14-01-01DPRK: North Korea Leader Kim Jong Un makes First Appearance in 40 days., (14 October 2014).

North Korea’s leader reappeared after an extended absence without explanation.  His extended absence is particularly concerning in light of the nuclear weapons North Korea is assessed to have.  The World Food Programme assesses North Korea is a few years away from food self-sufficiency which decreases desires from many in the international community to provide aid to North Korea.  North Korea may change tactics to adjust to that eventuality.

Close up of the North Korean flag, square imageGOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: S. Korea says No Shift in Sanctions on N. Korea, Yonhap (14 October 2014)

ROK officials hold that sanctions on the DPRK since May 2010 will not change, despite comments earlier this week from the President calling for resolving the issues that put the sanctions in place. While both sides open up to further dialogue, each also exchanged fire twice in the past weeks, and leaflets sent by ROK groups continue to be an antagonizing issue. More ROK citizens appear to be warming to the idea of reunification than previously.

Extreme-Heat-Waves-To-DoubleCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Exploring 167 Years of Vulnerability: An Examination of Extreme Heat Events in Australia 1844–2010, Lucinda Coates et al., Environmental Science & Policy, vol. 42, pp. 33-44 (2014) [Open Access]

Heat-associated deaths, in general, are not well documented. The present study has used a combination of lengthy historical record and other official sources to put a lower bound estimate of 5332 heat-associated deaths in Australia since 1844. The dangers from extreme heat within Australia are still neglected. Moreover, fundamental changes could not take place until extreme heat is given the priority in Australia.

opening_remarks27__01__970-630x420ENERGY SECURITY: Giving up Fossil Fuels to Save the Climate: The $28 Trillion Writedown, Mark Hertsgaard, Business Week, (26 June 2014)

The sky isn’t falling and climate cannot be saved by saviors. Hertsgaard should worry how climate change may affect renewable energy – hydro, wind and biomass – reliability. The Telegraph reporter fears a sub-prime danger; such risks are never foreseen precisely. Even $200 billion a year amounts to but 1.2% of US GDP, and the returns in energy security and reductions in GHG emissions will be seen over the coming decades, arguably much cheaper than the investments in renewable energy, where the bubble has been deflating for quite some time.

Training to huntAUSTRAL PEACE AND SECURITY: New Ways of War: Is Remote Control Warfare Effective? Remote Control Project (10 October 2014)

The technology-heavy coalition intervention in the Iraq and Syria civil wars is already stuttering, with the question of ground troops on policy tables from Washington to Canberra. The lessons of past coalition wars – that they were counter-productive on all dimensions except generation of blowback, insecurity, casualties, and resistance – are ignored. Meanwhile, bandaids (aka the Government of National Unity) are the Afghanistan policy de jour.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.

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