NAPSNET Weekly FLASH Update 5 May, 2000

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"NAPSNET Weekly FLASH Update 5 May, 2000", NAPSNet Weekly Report, May 05, 2000,

Nonproliferation and Disarmament

1. NPT Review Conference

The Acronym Institute has a number of briefings on the ongoing Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Review Conference.
“What went wrong?”
“The Nuclear Weapon States”
“NPT Opens Smoothly”
“Testing the NPT”

BASIC is making available official speeches, draft texts, and related documents from the Review Conference.
“The 2000 NPT Review Conference: Official Documents and Statements”

The New Agenda Coalition presented a Working Document on Nuclear Disarmament to the Sixth Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference in New York.
“New Agenda Coalition Working Document on Nuclear Disarmament”

2. P-5 Statement at NPT Conference

At the beginning of the second week of the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference in New York, the five declared nuclear powers reiterated their “unequivocal commitment” to ultimately eliminate their nuclear weapon arsenals. Lacking fulfillment of this commitment, initially pledged under the Treaty in 1970, has been repeatedly criticized by delegates for non-nuclear countries furing the first week of the conference.
“Text-only version of joint statement”
“Statement by the delegations of the Permanent Five (html)”
“At UN, Nuclear Five Repeat Disarmament Pledge”

3. Israeli Nuclear Weapons

Ambassador Abdallah Baali of Algeria said that the Arab states would push during the Nonproliferation Treaty Review Conference to have language added to the treaty singling out Israel as the only non-declared nuclear state outside of the treaty. Egypt argues that while it has been at peace formally with Israel for more that two decades, and no other Middle Eastern state possesses nuclear weapons, Israel continues to enjoy a nuclear monopoly.
“Egypt and the Middle East Resolution at the NPT 2000 Review Conference”

4. Nuclear Proliferation

Joseph Cirincione, in an article appearing in the Spring 2000 issue of Foreign Policy magazine, argues that nuclear proliferation among so-called rogue states is not the primary proliferation problem. Rather, it is, as President John F. Kennedy warned, that nuclear weapons in “the hands of countries large and small, stable and unstable,” would create “the increased chance of accidental war, and an increased necessity for the great powers to involve themselves in what otherwise would be local conflicts.”
“The Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain”

The Stanley Foundation held its thirty-first UN Issues conference on February 25-27, 2000. Participants representing missions to the UN, the UN Department of Disarmament Affairs, the US government, and the International Atomic Energy Agency, as well as policy experts from nongovernmental organizations and academic institutions, explored the status of the nuclear arms control regime and whether there exists a continued commitment for nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation.
“Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation: Choices for the World”

5. US-Russian Arms Control Talks

US officials said that they had detected a readiness by Russia to explore all avenues of a possible resolution to the disagreement over US plans to develop an Anti-Ballistic Missile system. US Defense Secretary William Cohen said that the US cannot accept any attempt by Russia to tie ratification of START II to a US decision not to deploy a national missile defense.
“U.S. Says Russians May Want a Deal on Missile Defense”
“Cohen Decries Russia’s Tying Start II Ratification to NMD”

The Clinton administration has presented Russia with a draft agreement that would revise the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told President Bill Clinton “Our position is our security will be better protected if the [ABM] treaty is kept intact.” Ivanov also said that there is enormous potential for U.S.-Russian cooperation, but much depends on U.S. decisions on nuclear disarmament and anti-missile defenses. Earlier, Ivanov told the UN that US attempts to modify threatened the disarmament process.
“Documents Detail U.S. Plan to Alter ’72 Missile Treaty”
“Proposal on ABM: Ready to Work With Russia”
“Ivanov Urges Clinton to Keep ABM Pact Intact”
“U.S. Says Russia Strike Conciliatory Poses On Arms Control”
“Russia, US Launch Security Talks”
“At U.N., Russia Hardens Line on Changes to Missile Treaty”
“Russia issues terms for nuclear stockpiles”
“Russian Warns U.S. on Arms Control”

Chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee for Defense Andrei Nikolayev said that a strong need has arisen in the relations between Russia and the US to switch over from nuclear deterrence to nuclear restraint.
“MP Calls to Replace Nuclear Deterrence by Nuclear Restraint”

6. START III Process

During consultations held last week on START-III in Geneva, Russia insisted not only on a more drastic reduction in the number of both sides’ nuclear warheads, but also that a provision be included in the treaty requiring a reduction of submarine-based cruise missiles and limiting the US anti-submarine activity in areas neighboring Russian territorial waters. At the same time, the U.S. expressed its desire to re-equip submarine-based ballistic missiles so that they turn into non-nuclear weapons, while retaining the right to restore their capability to bear nuclear warheads.
“START-III Consultations Bumpy”

Stephen I. Schwartz, publisher of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, says that in documents obtained by the Bulletin, US negotiators sought to allay Russian fears about a possible US national missile defense system by ruling out any future reductions in strategic nuclear warheads below the 1,500-2,000 level and encouraging Russia to maintain its nuclear forces on constant alert.
“Introduction to ABM Treaty ‘Talking Points'”

US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jesse Helms (R-N.C.) vowed to block approval of any arms agreement that US President Bill Clinton might negotiate with Russia during his final months in office. William Safire and an editorial in the Washington Times both argued that any agreement between Clinton and Russian President Vladimir Putin could have negative effects on US security. Nonetheless, the Washington Post reports, the Clinton administration intends to push for an agreement on missile defense.
“Helms Vows To Obstruct Arms Pacts Any New Clinton Accord With Russia Ruled Out”
“Dangerous Summit”
“Russian Missile Roulette”
“U.S. To Push Russia on Missiles”

Missile Defense

7. US National Missile Defense

In a new analysis of costs of national missile defense based on a report issued by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Council for a Livable World and the Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers estimate that the cost of the preferred Republican option of a layered defense would total at least $120 billion through 2015. The second link is to the CBO report.
“UP, UP, and AWAY! Missile Defense Plan to Cost $60 Billion; Republican Plan to Cost Twice as Much”
“Budgetary and Technical Implications of the Administration’s Plan for National Missile Defense”

The Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers and the Council for a Livable World Education Fund published “Pushing the Limits: The Decision on National Missile Defense” in April 2000. This briefing book, by Stephen Young, Deputy Director of the Coalition and with a foreword by Senator Joseph Biden, looks at each of the four criteria President Clinton will consider in his decision on whether to deploy an NMD. It concludes that the case for deployment is weak.
“Pushing the Limits: The Decision on National Missile Defense”

8. European Reactions to NMD

At the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference, France criticized the US missile defense plans for reviving the nuclear arms race.
“France Renews Attack on U.S. Missile Defense Plan”

Melvin Goodman argues that US plans to build and deploy a national missile defense (NMD) system will harm the US strategic position and create a proliferation problem for the Western alliance. A BASIC report notes that US plans to develop a National Missile Defense (NMD) system are causing negative reaction in Europe, including among NATO allies. Many European officials are seriously worried about the possibility that a US missile defense network not only could halt (or reverse) US-Russian reductions in nuclear arms, but also spark new tensions between Russia and NATO.
“Racing to an Arms Build-Up”

9. Russian Reaction to NMD

Sergei Rogov, director of Russia’s US and Canada Institute, said that Russia and the PRC may agree on joint steps, in particular in the defense field, if Washington deploys a national ABM system. He added, “If the Americans respond to ratification of START II by deploying an anti-missile system within years, a very serious crisis in [Russia’s] relations with the States and the West as a whole may ensue.”

10. Theater Missile Defense

The Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute for International Studies has an annotated chronology of theater missile defense planning in Northeast Asia.
“Theater Missile Defense (TMD) in Northeast Asia: An Annotated Chronology, 1990-Present”


11. Russian Nuclear Security

A briefing by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says that the recent ratification of START II demonstrated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s support for US-Russian cooperation on nuclear security. The article argues that US President Bill Clinton should use this opportunity to seek agreement on new steps to prevent theft of nuclear bomb material.
“New Report: Bold New Steps on US-Russian Nuclear Security for Clinton-Putin Summit”

12. Russian Nuclear Doctrine

The Russian Security Council approved a new military doctrine that reserves the right to the first use of nuclear weapons in the case where the country’s existence is threatened. General Valeriy Manilov, first deputy chief of the Russian General Staff, stated, “Guided by the principle of transparence, we say that we would use our entire potential, including nuclear weapons, in the case of nuclear aggression or conventional aggression that we cannot stop by other means.”
This article is available from World News Connection
“Russia Will Use Nuclear Weapons If Necessary, Says Top Military Commander”

13. NATO Nuclear Doctrine

Keith Vaz, Junior Minister of the United Kingdom Foreign Office, said in a letter sent to the British-American Security Information Council that NATO has not widened the role of nuclear weapons. The alliance remains fully committed to its pledge not to threaten or attack non-nuclear states party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
“NATO Nuclear Policy Not Altered Says UK”

14. European Security

On Tuesday, April 25th, 2000, the Center for International Strategy, Technology and Policy (CISTP) and the European Union Center of the University System of Georgia hosted a Roundtable Discussion focusing on European Security, the European Union, and EU Enlargement. The purpose of the discussion was to broaden mutual understanding of US-European Security Cooperation. Seven security-related officials from Europe and Canada participated under the auspices of the Department of State’s International Visitor Program.

“The European Union and Cooperative Security in Europe”

15. US Homeland Defense

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has initiated an 18-month study to improve understanding of Homeland Defense and chart a course for improving policy in this area. The project will feature: a major, independent research effort conducted by Tony Cordesman, the project’s Principal Investigator; a series of study group efforts on terrorism, missile defense, information security, and policy integration; and a report by the Senior Advisory Group.
“Homeland Defense”


16. NATO Bombing Strategy

William Arkin reviews the NATO bombing campaign of Yugoslavia, arguing that no assessment has been done to determine what “appropriate” air war targets really are.
“Not as smart as our bombs”

17. PRC Interception of US Aircraft

A US RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft from Kadena Air Base in Japan was intercepted by two PRC F-8 jet-fighters during an operations in the South China Sea between the PRC and Taiwan on Thursday, April 27. The U.S. aircraft was operating “dozens of miles” off the coast of the PRC, according to a US Defense Department spokesman, who played down the significance of the incident. “This was a relatively common event, not only in that part of the world but in other parts of the world.”
“Excerpts from DOD press briefing”
“Full briefing”
“US Reconnaissance Plane Intercepted by Chinese Aircraft”


18. US-PRC Relations

Robert A. Manning, Ronald Montaperto, and Brad Roberts at the US Council on Foreign Relations discuss the future of US-PRC relations and their impact on arms control issues.
“China, Nuclear Weapons, and Arms Control”

19. US-Taiwan Relations

Nicholas Barry argues that the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act (TSEA) would greatly strengthen U.S.-Taiwan military ties. “In effect, TSEA would restore an alliance relationship with Taipei that the U.S. abrogated when it recognized the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1979.” The Heritage Foundation hosted a videoconference with Taiwan President-elect Chen Shui-bian.
“Closer U.S.-Taiwan Military Ties – Will TSEA Fly?”
“A New Era of Opportunity for Taiwan”

20. Japanese View of Cross-Straits Relations

Barbara Wanner reviews the Japanese reaction to Chen’s victory, and the challenges Japan faces due to developments in cross-Straits relations.
“Taiwanese Election Creates New Challenges for Japan on Cross-Straits Relations”

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