NAPSNET Weekly FLASH Update 29 February, 2000

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"NAPSNET Weekly FLASH Update 29 February, 2000", NAPSNet Weekly Report, February 29, 2000,

Missile Defense

1. US National Missile Defense

Global editorials criticized US plans to build and deploy a national missile defense (NMD) system and related efforts to secure Russia’s agreement on amending the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, arguing that U.S plans would upset the balance of deterrent relationships among nuclear weapons states and give weapons proliferation new momentum. Theodore Postol and Anatoli Diakov argue that the cost of national missile defense will not simply be measured in dollars, but may include an end to further nuclear arms reductions with Russia, an increased Chinese effort to expand its nuclear forces, negative reactions from US allies in Europe and East Asia, and an eventual collapse of global arms control and nonproliferation efforts.
“Issue Focus: National Missile Defense”
“Antimissile Front In The Northern Norway”

2. Theater Missile Defense

Leon Sigal argues that plans to develop a theater missile defense system means increasing tensions in Northeast Asia in order to defend against a negligible DPRK threat. Nautilus Security Program Officer Timothy Savage reviews the use of the DPRK threat to justify US military policies.
“Needlessly Antagonizing China”
“If The DPRK Didn’t Exist, It Would Be Necessary to Invent Them”

3. Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty

Pavel Podig examines the history of Russia’s attitude toward the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty, and concludes that it has undergone a number of changes in recent years. He argues that Russia and the United States share responsibility for the current uncertainty over the future of the ABM Treaty.
“A History of the ABM Treaty in Russia”

4. US-Norway Radar Station

On March 24, 1998, the Norwegian Defense High Command issued a press release stating that Norway was establishing a new radar called Globus II in Vardo to monitor and catalogue space objects, both active satellites and so-called space debris. Critics, however, said that the radar is really the US HAVE STARE system developed by Raytheon, and could be used to aid in US anti-ballistic missile efforts.
“Vardo Exposed”
“The AN/FPS-129 HAVE STARE radar system”


5. US-Russian Nuclear Cooperation

The Russian-American Nuclear Security Advisory Council (RANSAC) has a summary of action in the US Congress on the Expanded Threat Reduction Initiative (ETRI), to increase funding for US programs working to address the dangers posed by weapons of mass destruction in Russia and the other independent former Soviet states.
“Russian Nuclear Security and the Clinton Administration’s Fiscal Year 2000 Expanded Threat Reduction Initiative: A Summary of Congressional Action”

6. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

Former US President Jimmy Carter warns in the Washington Post that failure to extend the nuclear nonproliferation treaty (NPT) could terminate many nuclear inspections and open a “Pandora’s box” of nuclear proliferation in terrorist states. A report by the Acronym Institute argues that the NPT continues to play a vital part in preventing proliferation, but much of the responsibility now lies in the hands of the nuclear powers. If they persist in their refusal to accept some practical mechanisms for interim steps to create the conditions for more progressive nuclear disarmament, they could see their non-proliferation objectives slipping away from them.
“A Nuclear Crisis”
“NPT – Challenging Times”


7. Implementation of START II

Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Ivanov said on Friday that the Russian leadership wants the State Duma lower house of parliament to ratify soon Start-II to open a way for Russia and the US to begin preparing Start-III. Sergei Rogov, Director, Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of USA and Canada, argues that the hasty ratification of START-II could in a few months’ time force Russia either to admit that it had been bluffing all along and surrender at discretion, or run the risk of open confrontation with the US.
“Russian Govt Wants Start-2 Ratification-Ivanov”
“Strange Phase In Russo-American Relations – Do We Need To Hustle Start-II Ratification?”

8. Negotiation of Start-III

Robert Manning of the Council on Foreign Relations criticized the Clinton administration for its unwillingness to match Russia’s proposals to reduce to the level of 1,500 nuclear warheads in a new START-III treaty. The Program on New Approaches to Russian Security (PONARS) at Harvard University attributes the lack of progress in START-III negotiations to a number of factors, including: Russia’s security concerns; divisions in Russia between arms controllers and supporters of a unilateral approach to dealing with new security challenges; and Russia-US political disagreements and Russia’s domestic electoral politics.
“Abbot and Costello Nuclear Policy”
“The Prospects for ABM Treaty Modification”

Taiwan Straits

9. PRC White Paper on Taiwan

Stratfor argues that, despite the concern in the US media over the PRC’s recent White Paper on Taiwan, all indications suggest that during the upcoming Taiwan elections, the straits will remain calm. In a separate article, Stratfor argues that the white paper has less to do with Taiwan than it does with the PRC’s ongoing attempt to contain the US on a global scale, through classic balance-of-power politics. Globally, while a few commentators saw the white paper as mere saber-rattling in advance of the presidential elections in Taiwan next month, a larger number perceived it as a dramatic escalation of tensions across the Taiwan Strait. David M. Lampton argues in The Nixon Center Bulletin that the White Paper will be seen in Taiwan, throughout East Asia, and in the US as an awkward attempt to influence the Taiwan elections and a threat to the people of Taiwan to start negotiating reunification, or else.
“Waves in Taiwan Strait Unlikely to Become Tsunamis”
“The Hidden Meaning of Beijing’s White Paper”
“China ‘Rattles Sabers’ at Taiwan–Again; Will ‘White Paper’ Backfire?”
“China’s White Paper is Counterproductive”

10. Taiwan Elections

Stratfor argues that while the three candidates in Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election are split evenly in the polls, Lien Chen of the ruling Kuomintang remains the likely victor. The article adds that Lien will initially be occupied with patching up the rifts in the party, offering a brief moderation of tensions with the PRC. However, the Taiwan Research Institute argues that belligerent action and rhetoric from the People’s Republic of China make it clear that the March 18 presidential election on Taiwan will not be allowed to pass without overt threats from the PRC to use force.
“Taiwan Elections May Offer Brief Respite in Tensions With China”
“Taiwan’s Election Elicits Provocative PRC Response”

11. US Policy toward Taiwan

Peter Brookes, the Principal Advisor for East Asian Affairs with the Republican staff of the Committee on International Relations in the US House of Representatives, gave a speech at the Institute for Corean-American Studies on US policy toward Taiwan. He said that the Clinton administration’s mishandling of Taiwan policy is undermining US objectives to deter conflict in the Taiwan Straits. He argued that the best hope for furthering peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is to assist Taiwan in deterring PRC aggression and increasing diplomatic and security interactions with Taiwan. Nicholas Barry of the Center for Defense Information argues that the policies of the US, the PRC, and Taiwan are all linked. “Except for the Pentagon and the House of Representatives, all sides seem to understand the linkages.”
“Fixing U. S. Policy Toward Taiwan”
“We Don’t Need a Blue Team – Or a Red Team – Taking Sides on China-Taiwan Relations”

Korean Peninsula

12. Agreed Framework

Holly Higgins, Research Fellow at the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, provides a chronicle of events related to the US-DPRK Agreed Framework.
“Chronology of Events Related to U.S.-North Korean Agreed Framework”

13. DPRK-Egypt Missile Cooperation

Jane’s Defense Review reports that US and Israeli intelligence sources allege that Western and US technology obtained by Egyptian government-owned companies is being sent to Pyongyang and is adapted and returned as advanced missile components for Egypt’s medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) program.
“Israel, USA claim Egyptian missile links with N Korea”

14. ROK Air Force

Natalie Crawford and Chung-in Moon argue in a study for the Rand Corporation that, so long as the ROK continues to confront a threat from the DPRK, it can not afford to downgrade its ground forces or to ignore critical land-based missions. In the long-term, however, the ROK must develop a new national security strategy and concomitant military doctrines that would include more attention to the air force.
“Emerging Threats, Force Structures, and the Role of Air Power in Korea”


15. US-European Burden Sharing

Louis R. Golino argues that for the continued success of the NATO alliance, it is vital that the US support European efforts to assume more responsibility for Europe’s defense.
“By Building a New Relationship Between Europe and the U.S.”

16. NATO Force Structure

Thomas-Durell Young of the Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, argues that NATO’s current review of its force structure requirements offers nations a unique opportunity to address some the issues that have led to the current situation, where force structure and practices do not adequately support the recently released Alliance’s Strategic Concept and Ministerial Guidance for force planning.
“Multinational Land Forces and Headquarters and the NATO Force Structure Review”

17. NATO Strategy

Ian Lesser argues in a Rand corporation study that to the extent that NATO directs its efforts to the defense of common interests and power projection, additional attention will be paid to Southern Region members, the Mediterranean states involved in partnership and dialogue with NATO, and the wider region where developments can affect transatlantic security.
“NATO Looks South: New Challenges and New Strategies in the Mediterranean”


18. Japanese Military Role

Japanese Ambassador Takekazu Kawamura gave a Dinner Speech for the Institute for Corean-American Studies at the Faculty Club of the University of Pennsylvania. He discussed Japan’s future military role, emphasizing the importance of the US-Japan alliance.
“Japan’s Role for Peace and Prosperity in the New Century”


19. PRC-Russian Relations

Stratfor reports that confusion and ambiguity have surrounded the anticipated summit between PRC President Jiang Zemin and acting Russian President Vladimir Putin, as domestic concerns, particularly in the PRC, have distracted the countries in their movement toward a strategic partnership. Unconfirmed reports assert that the PRC top leaders were caught off guard by former Russian President Boris Yeltsin’s resignation, demonstrating that while the two nations may share a strategic interest in creating a multi-polar world, a disconnect remains between the nations’ domestic interests.
“Sino-Russian Strategic Alliance Slowed by Internal Issues”

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