Non-Proliferation
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1. Carnegie Non-Proliferation Conference
Over 400 officials and specialists from around the world attended the Carnegie International Non-Proliferation Conference from March 16-17, 2000 on the theme, “New Challenges in Asia and America.” Remarks of speakers are being posted on the website as they become available. The major addresses and rapporteur reports of all the panels will be published in written form in April.
“The 2000 Carnegie International Non-Proliferation Conference” |
2. US-Russian Nonproliferation Programs
US Secretary of Energy Bill Richardson has appointed a blue-ribbon panel to review and assess the Energy Department’s nonproliferation programs in Russia and recommend how its nonproliferation efforts can be enhanced. The assessment will include, but not be limited to: Initiatives for the Proliferation Prevention Program; the Nuclear Cities Initiative; the Material Protection Control and Accounting Program; the Second Line of Defense Program; the HEU Purchase Agreement; the International Nuclear Safety Program; and the Plutonium Disposition Program.
“Task Force Created on Nonproliferation Programs in Russia” |
3. Yugoslavia Nuclear Program
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists examines the history of the nuclear weapons program in the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, the predecessor to today’s Yugoslavia. The article argues that while Yugoslavia is not a high priority threat to proliferate, a number of key nuclear physicists, chemists, and engineers in today’s Yugoslavia have substantial weapons-related experience.
“Tito’s Nuclear Legacy” |
Arms Control
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4. US Arms Control Policy
John D. Holum, senior adviser for arms control and international security at the US Department of State, told the Symposium on Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy that efforts to reduce the threat of nuclear weapons under the Nonproliferation Treaty are making slow, but steady progress. Holum argued, “The unavoidable reality … is that arms control is a process in which painstaking negotiations are often an essential part of achieving an effective and verifiable outcome. Moreover, intermediate steps are the engines of progress.”
“Holum Remarks to Symposium on Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy”
William Walker argues that the nuclear arms control community has been disoriented by the shift in posture of the US away from arms control. He discusses how other governments can deal with problems of nonproliferation in a unipolar world.
“Establishing Legitimate & Effective Order in a Unipolar World” |
5. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
An editorial in Disarmament Diplomacy notes that both in India and the US, there are two kinds of opponents to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. In India, the two camps include those who want India to become a full nuclear power, and those who feel the Treaty does not contribute enough to real nuclear disarmament. In the US, opponents include those who think the US should always maintain a strong lead in the nuclear arms race, and those who worry that if the US gives up testing others might take advantage.
“The Non-Proliferation Dilemma” |
6. START II Ratification
Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov urged Russian lawmakers to ratify before June the START II arms reduction treaty. Ivanov made his plea at a closed door meeting with key members of the Duma’s foreign affairs, defense and security committees. Afterwards, participants issued a statement encouraging the full Duma to ratify the document.
“Kremlin Faces Uphill Task In Persuading Duma To Ratify START II”
“Russian Government Lobbies U.S. Arms Control Deal”
“Closed Hearing on START/ABM in the Russian Duma, March 21”
“Russia Mulls Nuclear Treaty”
“Duma Maintains Tough Stance On Ratification Of START II”
An article in Disarmament Diplomacy reviews the ongoing differences between Russia and the US on the START process and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
“Talks But No Progress on START and ABM as US Suffers NMD Test Setback and Plans Spending Increase” |
Missile Defense
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7. US Missile Defense Test
The US Defense Department announced that it would delay by two months the next test of national missile defense technology, likely pushing back to October US President Bill Clinton’s decision on whether to deploy the system. Air Force Lieutenant General Ronald T. Kadish, director of the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization, said that the two successful intercept tests originally listed as a requirement for deployment no longer are technically necessary, and that the department can proceed with deployment based on the one successful intercept already achieved.
“Pentagon Delays Test of Defense Using Missiles”
“Missile Defense Update”
“Missile Defense Test Postponed”
“Pentagon lowers, meets criteria for missile defense” |
8. Missile Defense Deployment
The Washington Times argues in a commentary that missile defense supporters have won the national debate and defenses will be built. “The issue now is what defenses to build and when.” Russian Ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament Vasily Sidorov called for negotiations to prevent an arms race in space. He reiterated Russia’s view that a US anti-missile defense system would violate its Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty.
“Missile Defense Milestone and Merit”
“Russia Calls For Arms Race In Space To Be Blocked” |
9. PRC View of Missile Defense
PRC Ambassador to the US Sha Zukang argues that the real motivation behind US development of National Missile Defense is to make use of US economic and technological might to “grab the strategic high ground for the 21st century in both the scientific and military fields, so as to break the existing global strategic balance, seek absolute security for itself and realize its ambition for world domination.”
“US Missile Defence Plans: China’s View” |
10. Patriot Missile Arsenals
Lieutenant General Paul Kern, a top acquisition officer for the US Army, confirmed that “a significant number of failures were found” during testing of Patriot missiles in the Mideast and the ROK, and a decision was made to replace all “suspect missiles” to assure proper readiness. A new program has been initiated to conduct a fuller analysis of the Patriot missile fleet around the world.
“Flaw in Patriot Missiles Leads The U.S. to Replace Hundreds” |
Other Missile Issues
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11. Iraqi Missile Development
Recent reports in the Israeli and German press state that the threat from Iraqi ballistic missiles, some possibly armed with WMD, is reemerging. The Centre for Defense and International Security Studies states that these are the first reliable reports for well over a year to be this specific about these threats, but they are consistent with most public analyses.
“Iraqi Ballistic Missile and Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Threats Reemerge” |
12. Russian Missile Arsenal
Jane’s Information Group said that despite years of economic decline, Russia has retained its impressive firepower and a military industry still able to compete with the west. Jane’s said that the new Russian surface-to-air missiles, the S-300 and S-400, promise to “create major problems for (air strike) planners for years to come.” The Russian navy said that it launched two old submarine-based ballistic missiles recently as part of a program to extend the life of outdated weaponry.
“Russia’s Putin Inherits An Impoverished Nuclear Power”
“Russia Tests Two Ageing Sea-Based Missiles” |
Military
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13. ROK Military Strategy
The ROK Ministry of Defense issued a new study on ROK security strategy for the next century. It stated, “Now all countries in the world are witnessing a new organizing principle that makes information and knowledge the engine for human development. This transition of historic proportions would fundamentally and inevitably alter the erstwhile laws of national survival, the method for economic prosperity, and, most significantly, the paradigm for national security.”
“Korean security for the 21st century” |
14. US Military Budget
The Council for a Livable World claims in a new paper that that most of the increases in US military spending over the last two years has been for new weapons programs, even though the rational for the increases was a “readiness crisis.”
“Robbing Peter to Pay Pork: Despite Readiness Cries, Most Pentagon Increases go for Unneeded Weapons Systems” |
15. German Military
Stratfor notes that all but one major German political parties currently favor a reduction in the armed forces. It warns that German military weakness would have significant implications for the future of NATO, as well as for the proposed European Defense and Security Identity.
“German Military Weakness Complicates European Security Futures” |
South Asia
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16. South Asian Nuclear Weapons
Gregory S. Jones argues that if India and Pakistan intend to develop fully deployed nuclear forces, then their tests were only the first step. “In particular, if India and Pakistan do proceed with weapons deployment, their forces will probably not be capable of withstanding a first strike, which could lead to instability in a crisis.”
“From Testing to Deploying Nuclear Forces” |
17. US Policy toward South Asia
The US Institute of Peace on March 9, 2000 held a Current Issues Briefing on tensions between India and Pakistan and US policy. Presenters at the briefing included Senator Sam Brownback, US Assistant Secretary of State Karl Inderfurth, Dr. Shirin Tahir-Kheli, Ambassador Robert Oakley, and Ambassador Frank Wisner. Sumit Ganguly and David Stuligross argue in The Progressive Response that the US administration would do well to take far greater cognizance of how US global interests mesh with South Asian regional ones. US influence will be most effective if it is well focused.
“Great Expectations in South Asia”
“U.S. Security Challenges in South Asia” |
18. Clinton’s South Asia Trip
Alyssa Ayres and Marshall Bouton of the Asia Society argue that US President Bill Clinton’s trip to South Asia would be a mixture of substance and symbolism. They stated, “What we are likely to see during March 20-26 are a carefully choreographed set of meetings and events which will make visible the direction the United States wants to be headed in the subcontinent. That direction is one of engagement.” Todd Sechser at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says that US relations with India and Pakistan suffered in the 1990s, and progress toward US objectives has been disappointing.
“The Clinton Visit to South Asia: A Primer”
“Getting to ‘Maybe’ in South Asia” |
Taiwan Straits
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19. Taiwan Elections
Global Beat held a telephone briefing with former US Ambassador James Lilley, who was US Ambassador to the People’s Republic of China, 1989-1991 and director of the American Institute in Taiwan, 1982-1984. Lilley had just returned from observing the elections in Taiwan. The briefing is available both in RealAudio format and in print transcript. Stratfor argues that conciliatory gestures between the PRC and Taiwan will continue as each government deals with internal political fallout from the election, but the opposition victory further weakens any chance of peaceful reunification. It also argues that Chen Shuibian’s victory is a clear affront to the PRC’s military and old guard.
“Briefing on Implications of Taiwan’s Elections”
“Easing of Taiwan Strait Tensions Temporary”
“Beijing Factions Face Off over Taiwan Elections” |
20. Taiwan Military
Stratfor argues that the Taiwan military, while not directly opposing the election of Chen Shuibian, will not allow the new government to declare Taiwan’s independence.
“Rift between New Government and Military in Taiwan” |
21. PRC Strategy toward Taiwan
Stratfor argues that while the PRC has thus far refrained from provocative actions in the Taiwan Strait, it may be instigating the DPRK to raise tensions in the Yellow Sea in a bid to distract the US.
“North Korea Pushes the Envelope” |
Diplomacy
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22. PRC-Russian Relations
Russian Fuel and Energy Minister Viktor Kalyuzhny led a Russian delegation to Beijing on March 20 to discuss future PRC-Russian energy cooperation. Stratfor argues that this meeting is a move toward the actualization of the Russia-PRC alliance.
“Actualizing the Alliance: Russia and China Move Toward a Pipeline Deal” |
23. Spratly Islands
Philippine General Jose T. Almonte argues that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should not underestimate the firmness with which the PRC is pursuing its designs on the Spratlys. He stated, “We cannot discount the fact that China’s increasing assertiveness in its foreign relations has wide support inside the country.”
“ASEAN Must Speak with One Voice on the South China Sea”
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