NAPSNet – Weekly 22 May 2014

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wikipedia.orgDETERRENCE: The Presidential Nuclear Initiatives of 1991-1992, Susan Koch, WMD Case Study 5, October 1, 2012

The ROK pushed withdrawal of nuclear weapons but this could not be done in isolation in case the DPRK viewed this as US withdrawal.  The Bush Administration’s 1991 global withdrawal of forward-deployed tactical and theater nuclear weapons included Korea but asserted that it could reintroduce nuclear weapons any time, and plans for such were made.   [PDF, 0.5MB]

Photo source: Foreign Policy.comDPRK: North Korea’s Senior Nuclear Negotiator Spotted in Beijing, Kyodo News Agency in Global Post, 20 May 2014

North Korea appears anxious – threatening nuclear tests, but seems more or less content to continue discussions possibly using the “good offices” of third countries.  North Korea also held a trade fair that has increased in size; but trade is meant to support the regime, not supplant it.  North Korea also left two new helicopter frigates to be discovered.  However, it will take several years of training deployments and a great deal of doctrinal development in order to fully integrate the new capability into North Korea’s conventional deterrence mix.

34f034084455475798e68251a54cf89b-c530bde17f3e485f871d28965de965e0-0GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Sewol Victims’ Families Form Committee to Demand a Government Investigation, Kim Ki-seong, Kim Il-woo and Park Su-ji, Hankyoreh, 17 May 2014

The ROK President promised sweeping reforms following last month’s ferry disaster, while authorities simultaneously take action against citizens protesting the handling of the response.  Reporters and staff at a major broadcasting station are striking to protest revelations that coverage was influenced by the Blue House. Family members of victims have established a committee to call for an independent fact-finding investigation into the accident.

Image for 22-5-2014CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Integrating Local Hybrid Knowledge and State Support for Climate Change Adaptation in the Asian Highlands, Jianchu Xu & R. Edward Grumbine, Climatic Change, vol. 124, issue 1-2, pp. 93-104 (May 2014)

Across the Asian Highlands and beyond, three climate adaption pathways toward the future are suggested. First, in the context of reducing risks from climate change for both communities and governments, more effort must be made to sensitize leaders and policy makers to the interface between local and national interests. Second, government policy should avoid blanket solutions and target specific hybrid knowledge systems in specific places. Third, enhanced political representation with significant resource control for highlands peoples must be established sooner rather than later.

Hkg9567626ENERGY SECURITY: Unseasonal Rain, Hail in Kutch, Saurashtra, Times of India (7 May 2014)

Freak weather or climate change? Which model and which data are needed for an answer, and whose answers are credible? Mango crop losses and air-conditioning demands are real, but flooding and drought are also affected by land use and water management patterns. Is it fossil CO2 or the smog that is the culprit and whose reductions will bring the most human benefit? People do matter.

c77661a4-8b05-419b-8690-96d8119e14fa-460x394CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY: Climate Change, Migration, and Non-Traditional Security Threats in China: Complex Crisis Scenarios and Policy Options for China and the World, Michael Werz and Lauren Reed, Center for American Progress, May 2014

Pot meets kettle: a useful US analysis of climate change impacts on Chinese  security and strategy concludes China’s leaders lack a comprehensive approach to climate security. Meanwhile Boko Haram and a doubling of ice loss in the Antarctic exemplify CNA’s view of climate change and security moving from threat multiplier to direct catalyst of conflict with the accelerating risks of climate change.

The Nautilus Peace and Security Weekly Report presents articles and full length reports each week in six categories: Austral security, nuclear deterrence, energy security, climate change and security, the DPRK, climate change adaptation and governance and civil society. Our team of contributors carefully select items that highlight the links between these themes and the three regions in which our offices are found—North America, Northeast Asia, and the Austral-Asia region.

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