NAPSNET Week in Review 9 February, 2001

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 9 February, 2001", NAPSNet Weekly Report, February 09, 2001, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-weekly/napsnet-week-in-review-9-february-2001/

Korea


1. Inter-Korean Relations

The militaries of the DPRK and the ROK reached full agreement on arrangements to reconnect a cross-border railway. The 41-point agreement called for opening a hotline between the two militaries and two checkpoints on either side of the military demarcation line (MDL), but not to allow military facilities in the area.
“Inter-Korean Railway” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 8, US)
“Inter-Korean Railway” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 9, ROK)

Delegations of the two Koreas met at the Koryo Hotel in Pyongyang to discuss the joint inspection of power supplies. Chosun Ilbo reported that from the beginning of the 1st Inter-Korean working level conference on electricity cooperation, both parties faced stumbling blocks due to clear differences in their stances.
“DPRK Electricity Supply” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 9, ROK)

The Korea Times reported that recent reports, that the ROK had paid the DPRK to consummate the landmark inter-Korean summit last year, are putting the government’s level of tolerance regarding freedom of the press to a test.
“Alleged ROK Bribes to DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 5, ROK)


2. DPRK Economy

The ROK Unification Ministry suggested four cities as possible candidates to be the DPRK’s special economic zone (SEZ). In the report titled “Comprehensive Analysis of the North Korean Economy in 2000,” the ministry named Nampo, Kaesong, Tanchon and Shinuiju as candidates for the SEZ to be designated by the DPRK.
“DPRK Special Economic Zone” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 5, ROK)

DPRK leader Kim Jong-il’s talk to the Association of Pro-DPRK Residents in Japan in April 1999 has led to questioning whether the DPRK’s recent shift to “new thinking” in economic opening is only a pretense. According to the report, Kim stated, “In order to attract the younger generations, you have to make them believe that you are changing your (hard-line) stance. You have to use ‘perfume’ to do so… While maintaining a reformist face, you have to accomplish your basic mission.”
“DPRK Reform” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 9, Japan)

The DPRK Central Broadcasting reported that an economic mission from the European Union (EU) arrived in Pyongyang and will reportedly stay for about two weeks to inspect the DPRK’s agricultural and energy industries.
“EU Mission Visits DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 8, ROK)


3. DPRK Human Rights

At a forum organized by a parliamentary study group, Norbert Vollertsen, a volunteer for German Emergency Doctors, a non-profit medical aid group, said that the forces in the ROK opposed to the “Sunshine Policy” toward the DPRK have to speak up to make the DPRK regime improve its human rights record.
“Human Rights in DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 9, ROK)

US Forces Korea (USFK) on Sunday denied reports in a Japanese economic daily, Sankei Shimbun, that USFK met with ranking Hyundai Group executives last November to protest the group’s financial aid to the DPRK.
“US on ROK Economic Aid” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 5, ROK)


4. DPRK Reactors

Outgoing US Ambassador to the ROK Stephen Bosworth said the DPRK and the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) are discussing establishing a nuclear regulatory system to ensure the safe operation of atomic power plants being built in the DPRK.
“DPRK Reactors” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 8, ROK)


5. DPRK Diplomacy

Japan’s Asahi Shimbun reported that DPRK leader Kim Jung-il will visit Russia from April 17-18. Russia’s ITAR-TASS news agency quoted an informed source in the Russian foreign ministry that confirmed the visit. A high-ranking ROK government official said that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il’s visit to Seoul is likely to be delayed until May or June, after a trip to Russia.
“Kim Jong-il’s Visit to ROK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 5, ROK)
“Russia-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 9, US)
“Kim Jong-il’s Russia Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 7, ROK)


6. DPRK Military Hardware

An ROK military source said that the DPRK has been seeking to purchase Russian interceptor missiles and assemble Russian fighters in its territory. The ROK Defense Ministry said that ROK and Russian military officials would meet in Seoul to discuss matters concerning the ROK’s purchase of some US$500 million worth of Russian weapons.
“DPRK Missile Purchase” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 7, ROK)
“ROK-Russia Defense Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 6, ROK)


7. ROK-US Policy Coordination

Lee Jong-binn, the ROK Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, held talks and agreed to establish an ROK-US senior consultative body to promote cooperation in policies toward the DPRK and to hold summit talks between the two nations in the near future. The talks helped ease ROK concerns about a possible conflict between the two sides over the ROK engagement policy toward the DPRK.
“US-ROK Policy Coordination” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 8, ROK)
“ROK-US Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 5, ROK)
“ROK-US Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 9, ROK)

The new team in the US Republican administration vowed to support the ROK’s reconciliation with the DPRK. New US Secretary of State Colin Powell said recently that the US would support the “historic reconciliation” that the ROK has begun with the DPRK.
“US View of Korean Reconciliation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 8, PRC)
“US Support of ROK Policy” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 7, US)


8. DPRK-US Relations

Lee Guen, DPRK deputy ambassador to the UN, speaking in a meeting of specialists on the Korean Peninsula held in Washington, said, “During the last 8 years, there have been many discussions between Pyongyang and Washington, but now it is time to move onto action. We hope the Bush administration maintains the US engagement policy toward North Korea.”
“US Policy toward DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 9, ROK)

The Korea Times reported that the DPRK has recently heightened the level of its anti-US propaganda, dubbing the US the “very hand that destroys the peace of Asia and the Pacific.” The DPRK also vowed that it “will meet knife to knife with the U.S.” The DPRK Worker’s Party’s official newspaper criticized the US Defense Department’s 2001 Annual Defense Report as an attempt to “threaten and stifle” the DPRK.
“DPRK View of US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 7, ROK)
“DPRK View of US Defense Report” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 5, US)


China


1. Cross-Straits Relations

On Thursday, a pair of journalists with the PRC’s official Xinhua News Agency became the first PRC reporters stationed on Taiwan. However, PRC policy-maker Lin Chong-pin warned that cross-strait relations are regressing in some vital areas.
“Cross-Straits Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 9, US)


2. Visit of Lee Teng-hui to US

The PRC criticized former Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui as an “out and out trouble maker,” and strongly warned the US not to allow Lee to visit the US.
“Visit of Lee Teng-hui to US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 8, US)


3. PRC-US Relations

US Secretary of State Colin said Sunday said that he told PRC Ambassador to the US Li Zhaoxing that the US remained committed to supporting human rights in the PRC as well as to ensuring that Taiwan can defend itself. A senior US administration official confirmed that PRC Vice Premier Qian Qichen will visit Washington next month. Qian’s visit will precede the annual decision on US arms sales to Taiwan.
“US-PRC Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 5, US)
“PRC Foreign Minister’s US Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 9, US)


4. PRC-India Nuclear Talks

Indian foreign ministry spokesman R.S. Jassal said that India and the PRC concluded a second round of security talks. Jassal said that the meeting ended on a “forward-looking” note. He said, “It is in a spirit of friendship that the two sides discussed their anxieties and worries… They discussed regional and international security concerns, disarmament and export control policies.”
“PRC-India Nuclear Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 8, US)


5. PRC Military Hardware

An anonymous senior US military official said that the PRC is continuing a buildup of short-range missiles opposite Taiwan and now has up to 300 missiles deployed. The official stated, “And just as important as the number, is the accuracy. Right now they are mostly inertial [guidance], which give them [circular error probabilities] in the Scud range. But they are working on more precision guidance, which will make a big difference.”
“PRC Missile Deployment” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 5, US)

Richard D. Fisher Jr., a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, said that according to British and US government sources, Great Britain is proceeding with the sale of 80 to 90 Rolls Royce Spey turbofan engines that will used to power one or more squadrons of the PRC’s Xian JH-7 fighter-bombers.
“British Arms Sales to PRC” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 7, US)


6. Taiwanese Missile Test

Taiwanese weapons researchers plan to test-fire the supersonic Hsiungfeng III anti-ship missiles at a military exercise in April.
“Taiwanese Missile Test” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 5, US)


Japan


1. Japanese-PRC Maritime Agreement

The Japanese and PRC governments agreed that they will inform the other at least two months in advance of the commencement of planned maritime research activities.
“Japanese-PRC Maritime Agreement” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 9, Japan)


2. Japanese-Russian Territorial Issue

LDP General Affairs Bureau head Muneo Suzuki and some high-ranking Foreign Ministry officials related to European affairs support the return of two islands first, while others in the Foreign Ministry argue for the return at once of all four islands whose sovereignty are disputed by Japan and Russia.
“Japanese-Russian Territorial Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 9, Japan)


3. Military Contingency Legislation

The Japanese government decided to establish a working panel on legislation for military contingencies, which was first proposed in 1977 but was urgently requested by the ruling parties in wake of the DPRK alleged Taepodong missile launch in 1998.
“Military Contingency Legislation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 9, Japan)


Russia


1. PRC-RF Railway Development

Georgian Republic President Eduard Shevardnadze said that the PRC expressed its wish “to participate in construction and development of infrastructure of Tbilisi-Kars railway.” He stressed that implementation of such an idea “will allow the countries of Central Asia and China to communicate by railway with Turkey and Europe through Azerbaijan and Georgia.”
“PRC-RF Railway Development” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 7, RF)


2. US-Russian Relations

Russian Foreign Ministry said on January 31 that Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov will meet new US Secretary of State Colin Powell in the near future.
“US-Russian Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 8, PRC)


South Asia


1. India Nuclear Policy

Manoj Joshi writes that while India claims to possess the capability to retaliate against a nuclear first strike, the government’s response to the Gujarat earthquake shows that it is unprepared to respond to a disaster.

“India Nuclear Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #6)


2. Gujarat Earthquake

Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf spoke by phone with Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee, the first contact at that level between India and Pakistan in 15 months, to convey sympathies regarding the earthquake. Pakistani government sources suggest that Pakistan would like to use the opportunity of the positive Vajpayee-Musharraf phone call to resume their bilateral dialogue. Two days after the phone call, Musharraf attacked India’s “oppressive” rule in Kashmir.
“Musharraf-Vajpayee Phone Conversation” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #6)
“Impact of Phone Conversation” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #6)
“Pakistan-India Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #6)

The PRC sent US$600,000 in humanitarian supplies and cash to India to aid earthquake relief.
“PRC Humanitarian Aid” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #6)


3. Indian Ceasefire

V.P. Malik, a former Chief of the Indian Army Staff, argued that the ceasefire is part of a long-term strategy to resume the India-Pakistan dialogue, but that Pakistan’s sincerity and its support for violence must be evaluated. Former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto stated that she supported India’s initiatives for encouraging a peace dialogue between India and Pakistan. Amitabh Mattoo, Director of the National Security Program at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, writes in The Hindu that the relief felt at the extension of the ceasefire is being overwhelmed by the reality that real peace will be elusive for some time.
“Ceasefire Commentary” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #6)

The Hindu reports that the Indian government is considering a reduction in forces in Kashmir as part of a plan to redeploy forces to promote the peace process without compromising security. The Hindu argues that, in conjunction with the ceasefire, this further reduction in border tensions is unlikely to lead to dialogue with Pakistan unless Pakistan reins in militant groups. An editorial in The Dawn stated that, coming after Pakistan’s stated withdrawal along the Line of Control, India’s promise to cut troops in Kashmir should promote peace.
“Kashmir Force Cuts” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #6)


4. Indian Military Hardware

Chief of the Indian Naval Staff Admiral Sushil Kumar stated in an interview that India was in talks with France and Russia with the goal of building 24 hunter-killer submarines. Mikhail Pogosyan, head of Russia’s Sukhoi aircraft company, stated that Sukhoi is open to helping India build its Light Combat Aircraft (LCA). The LCA had a second successful test-flight, staying airborne for about 20 minutes before landing.
“Military Programs” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #6)


Nuclear Weapons


1. India Nuclear Policy

Indian External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh stated that India can’t pursue unilateral nuclear disarmament because of the relevance of nuclear weapons as a deterrent force, though India remains committed to their global elimination.
“India Nuclear Policy” (SANDNet Weekly Update, V.2 #6)


2. Iraqi Nuclear Weapons

An unnamed defector from Iraq, a military engineer who fled Iraq one year after UN arms inspectors left, reported to the London Daily Telegraph that nuclear bombs are being built in Hemrin in north-eastern Iraq. The defector said, “There are at least two nuclear bombs which are ready for use.”
“Iraqi Nuclear Weapons” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #5)


3. German Role in NATO Nuclear Weapons

Otfried Nassauer, director of the Berlin-based institute BITS, writes that the German air force may give up its current ability to deliver US nuclear bombs. He reports that the aircraft to be deployed on German nuclear bases in the future do not have a nuclear capability.
“German Role in NATO Nuclear Weapons” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #5)


Missile Defense


1. US Domestic NMD Debate

Jim Mann, a writer for the Los Angeles Times, stated that the largest obstacle to National Missile Defense is the competition for defense spending among competing interest groups.
“US Domestic NMD Debate” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #5)


2. International Views of US Missile Defense

The New York Times reported that US and PRC military officials are engaged in unofficial talks designed to find a means to gaining PRC acceptance of the proposed US missile defense system. PRC analysts do not believe there can be a compromise acceptable to both countries. The PRC said that it was “seriously concerned” about US plans to develop an anti-missile defense system, but expressed hopes that high-level contacts with the new US administration will go on.
“PRC Perspective on NMD” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #5)
“PRC View of US Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 6, US)

US President George W. Bush spoke for the first time, via phone, with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov also spoke for the first time with US Secretary of State Colin Powell. Details were not released on either call, but it is believed that they may have discussed, among other issues, the 1972 ABM Treaty and the proposed US National Missile Defense system. At the 37th Munich Security Policy Conference on February 4, Secretary of the Russian Security Commission Sergei Ivanov said that the most important factor of international security is to maintain strategic stability, and that the ABM Treaty is the base of this stability. However, he pointed out, the US system was liable to destroy the balance of strategic, defensive and offensive weapons and lead to a new arms race.
“Russia-US Talks on NMD” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #5)
“Russian Position on NMD” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 8, PRC)

Strana.ru reported that Russia will almost double defense expenditures from 2.8 percent of gross domestic product to 5 percent, if the new US administration deploys a national missile defense system. In talks with German officials, Russian officials stated its intention to oppose revision of the ABM Treaty and to oppose expansion of NATO. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov that Russia is preparing to negotiate with the US on START III and stressed that Russia is willing to cut down its nuclear warheads to 1500 on the precondition that the 1972 ABM Treaty should be preserved and strengthened. German Defense Minister Rudolf Scharping shares the reservations of most European NATO members about the Bush administration proposal to build an anti-missile shield and the amendments it will almost certainly require to the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
“Russian Response to US NMD” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #5)
“Russia-German Talks on NATO” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #5)
“Peaceful Uses of Space” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 8, PRC)
“PRC View of ABM” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 8, PRC)
“German Position on NMD” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 8, PRC)

Japanese analysts said that the national missile defense system advocated by the US administration is pushing Japan toward a stronger military stance.
“Japanese View of Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 8, US)

Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer discounted threats from the PRC that it would react to the US missile defense program by increasing its stock of missiles, noting that the PRC had already said it would modernize its ballistic-missile capacity, which “presumably means to expand it.”
“Australian View of Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, February 8, US)


Arms Control


1. US Statements

US President George W. Bush stated that the US would proceed unilaterally with cuts to its nuclear arsenal and deploy a missile defense shield as necessary parts of keeping the peace. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld restated his argument that the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty was no longer relevant because the world has changed so much since then.
“US Statements” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #5)


Security


1. US Space Warfare

The US Air Force Space Warfare Center staged the first major US war game to focus on space as the primary theater of operations, which participants reported featured the PRC as the opposing force.
“US Space Warfare” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #5)

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