NAPSNET Week in Review 8 June, 2001

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"NAPSNET Week in Review 8 June, 2001", NAPSNet Weekly Report, June 08, 2001,


1. Agreed Framework

The International Atomic Energy Agency has begun negotiations with the DPRK over access to the nuclear weapons project abandoned by agreement in 1994 under the Agreed Framework. ROK experts have said that inspections are necessary to verify that the DPRK has complied with the 1994 agreement in order for construction to move forward on the twin nuclear reactors offered to the DPRK in exchange for terminating its nuclear program.
“Agreed Framework” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #21)

2. DPRK on Missile Moratorium

The DPRK would break its promise on missile moratorium unless US shows signs of normalizing ties with its DPRK according to the words of Selig Harrison, senior fellow at the Century Foundation. However, the DPRK’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in a commentary said, “We have got along fine without any relations with U.S. and could continue so forth.” Spanish Vice Foreign Minister Miguel Nadal stated that senior DPRK officials have reaffirmed their leader’s previous promise to maintain the country’s moratorium on missile tests until 2003.
“DPRK -US on Missile Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 7, ROK)
“DPRK Threatens Missile Tests” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 6, US)
“DPRK on Talks with US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 5, ROK)
“DPRK Missile Tests” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 4, US)
“DPRK on Missile Moratorium” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 8, ROK)

3. US-DPRK Talks

ROK Foreign Minister Han Seung-soo and US Secretary of State Colin Powell discussed US plans to reopen diplomatic negotiations with the DPRK. Han and Powell met after US President George Bush announced plans to resume talks with the DPRK. Bush had announced Wednesday that the US would restart negotiations with the DPRK on a broad range of issues, including DPRK production and exporting of missiles and its deployment of soldiers on the ROK border.
“ROK-US Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 8, ROK)
“US-DPRK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 7, US)
“ROK-US Talks on DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 5, ROK)

The ROK government welcomed Bush’s statement but experts here expect a rough sailing before the two sides reap productive results from any upcoming talks. Park Joon-young, a spokesman for ROK Presidential Blue House said that the ROK government hopes that stalled inter-Korea reconciliation efforts will be revived now that the US has decided to resume talks with the DPRK.
“ROK on US-DPRK Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 8, ROK)
“ROK Reaction to US-DPRK Talks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 7, US)

4. DPRK Maritime Violations

The ROK government had agreed Tuesday to let DPRK commercial ships use the sea-lanes between Cheju Island and the Korean peninsula in order to avoid a major incident. The ROK National Security Council asked only that DPRK tell ROK authorities in advance.
“DPRK Ships in ROK Waters” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 5, US)
“DPRK Vessels in ROK Waters” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 4, ROK)

ROK Defense Minister Kim Dong Shin warned on June 7 that DPRK vessels risked military confrontation if they ventured into waters claimed by the ROK. He issued the warning after a DPRK ship carrying rice from Japan crossed the northern demarcation line separating the seas of the two Koreas off the western end of the demilitarized zone.
“ROK Warns DPRK on Maritime Violation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 8, US)
“ROK Warns DPRK on Maritime Violation” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 8, ROK)

The United Nations Command announced that the DPRK had not responded to its proposal to hold a chief secretarial meeting of the Armistice Committee at Panmunjom over the DPRK’s freighters entering ROK territorial waters.
“ROK Waters” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 7, ROK)

5. DPRK View of ROK Military

The DPRK accused the ROK of trying to destroy rapprochement on the Korean Peninsula by beefing up its military and staging an aerial exercise.
“DPRK View of ROK Military” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 4, US)

6. Inter-Korean Summit Meeting

Reports indicate that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il rejected implementation of the 1991 Inter-Korean Basic Agreement at the inter-Korean summit meeting last year, and that the rejection is a serious consequence because it means that there is no security agreement between the two Koreas.
“Inter-Korean Summit Meeting” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 8, Japan)

ROK President Kim Dae-jung Wednesday reiterated his call for DPRK leader Kim Jong-il to clarify the date of his planned visit to the ROK for a second inter-Korean summit.
“ROK Calls for Talks with DPRK” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 7, ROK)
“ROK Urges DPRK Visit” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 6, US)

ROK Foreign Minister Han Seung-soo requested to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan Wednesday that he visit both Koreas as soon as possible to help promote inter-Korean reconciliation.
“ROK to Ask UN to Take Part in Inter-Korean Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 7, ROK)

ROK representatives said that civic and religious groups from the two Koreas’ will celebrate the June 15 anniversary of the first-ever summit between their leaders together, with a forum on unification and cultural performances. About 400 ROK citizens will travel to Mt. Kumgang on June 14 for the joint celebration proposed by the DPRK.
“Inter-Korean Summit Celebration” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 7, ROK)
“Inter-Korean Summit Celebration” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 4, ROK)

7. DPRK Domestic Conditions

The ROK Unification Ministry reported that the DPRK has been sending special delegations abroad with the help from United Nations Development Program (UNDP), Asia Foundation and other international organizations to gain expertise in capitalism.
“DPRK Officials to Study Capitalism” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 5, ROK)

The DPRK’s overseas trade volume surged by 33.1 percent from 1999, its export recording US$556.33 million and import, US$1.41321 billion. The total volume of trade for the year 1999 amounted to US$1.48 billion as revealed by the Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) on June 3.
“DPRK Trade Volume” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 5, ROK)
“DPRK-US Trade Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 4, ROK)


1. PRC Introduces Ban on Space Weapons

PRC Ambassador Hu Xiaodi proposed at the 66-nation Conference on Disarmament a treaty to ban weapons in outer space because of the imminent “danger” stemming from US missile defense plans. Western diplomats said Hu’s comments only added detail to the PRC’s known position on the issue.
“PRC Introduces Ban on Space Weapons” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 7, US)

2. US-PRC Relations

The PRC Foreign Ministry said that the PRC and US negotiators have agreed on the details for dismantling and flying home the downed US spy plane in Hainan Island, PRC.
“US-PRC Spy Plane Incident” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 7, US)

Ming Wan, an international affairs expert who teaches at George Mason University, said, “The most striking trend in China today is strong political conservatism combined with nationalist emotions. Even among college students, the most potent sentiment… (is) nationalist rather than liberal.” So, Wan said, when Bush risks stirring up a hornets’ nest of anti-US sentiment that could aid hard-liners as the PRC moves toward a transition of power next year. Former US president Gerald Ford urged the Bush administration to treat the PRC as a friend, arguing a more confrontational approach to that country would be counterproductive.
“US-PRC Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 7, US)
“US-PRC Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 5, US)

US President George W. Bush declared that he will push on June 1 for Congress to extend Normal Trade Relations (NTR) to the PRC for another year.
“PRC-US Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 5, PRC)

US Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld has cut off virtually all of the US Defense Department contacts with the PRC armed forces. Internal US Defense Department memoranda indicate that Rumsfeld is personally deciding which contacts should be allowed with the PRC and that he has rejected an overwhelming majority of them.
“US-PRC Military Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 4, US)

3. PRC Alliances in Asia

The PRC is forging tight military, political and economic alliances with most of the dozen countries on its borders. The goal is to redraw geopolitical boundaries and win the regional footholds it has long coveted to project its influence around the region.
“PRC Alliances in Asia” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 7, US)

4. PRC Military Exercises

Planned large-scale PRC military exercises opposite Taiwan appear to be as much about political theater as tactical training. Reports in some official PRC media said that the exercises would be the country’s largest since a series of maneuvers and missile tests near Taiwan in 1996.
“PRC Military Exercises” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 4, US)

5. Cross-strait Relations

The PRC flatly rejected suggestions that Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian be allowed to attend an October summit of Asia-Pacific leaders in Shanghai. US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick, in response to a question from reporters, said on Tuesday that Chen’s presence at the summit would be constructive.
“Cross-strait Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 6, US)


1. Japanese Constitution

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said the he would not change the existing interpretation on Japan’s collective self-defense right.
“Japanese Collective Self-Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 8, Japan)

2. US Troops in Asia

US National Security Council senior official Torkel Patterson told visiting Japanese Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Taku Yamazaki on May 31 that the US would maintain its 100,000 troops in Asia-Pacific.

“US Military Policy in Asia” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 8, Japan)

3. Yasukuni Shrine

An anonymous PRC embassy official said the PRC might scrap a trip to the PRC by Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi if he goes ahead and visits the controversial Yasukuni war shrine.
“PRC-Japan Relations” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 6, US)
“PRC Response to Japan PM’s Visit to Yasukuni Shrine” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 5, PRC)

4. Japanese-Russian Territorial Issue

Russian Ambassador Alexander Panov praised former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori’s proposal on June 5 that would see Russia hand over two of the four Russian- held islands off eastern Hokkaido and allow both countries to concurrently explore a compromise on the other two.
“Japanese-Russian Territorial Issue” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 8, Japan)

5. Textbook Issue

The DPRK on Friday criticized Japan’s refusal to grant DPRK officials visas to attend a protest in Tokyo against the publication of history textbooks which critics say gloss over Japan’s wartime aggression.
“DPRK Criticize Japan over Textbooks” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 8, US)

South Asia

1. India-Kashmir Dialogue

India’s Cabinet Committee on Security, headed by Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee, decided to end India’s unilateral ceasefire in Kashmir. Indian government interlocutor K.C. Pant stated that he did not expect the government’s decision to end the ceasefire to have any effect on the talks he initiated with Kashmiri groups. Pant met with People’s Democratic Freedom Party (PDFP) leader Shabir Shah in Kashmir. Shah termed the meeting “a good beginning.”
“Kashmir Ceasefire” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #22)
“India-Kashmir Dialogue” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #22)

Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar stated that Pakistan knew the ceasefire was a lie, adding, “India has removed even the pretense of restraint and given the Indian armed forces a carte blanche to continue state terrorism against the Kashmiri people.”
“Indian Ceasefire in Kashmir” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #22)

2. India Talks Offer

On the same day as ending its unilateral ceasefire in Kashmir, the Indian government offered to open negotiations with Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. India invited Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf to visit India for talks with Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee. Musharraf’s visit to India is expected to take place in July. Musharraf accepted Vajpayee’s invitation, stating his anticipation of discussing the focal issue of Jammu and Kashmir, as well as any other issues. Several former Pakistani government officials and current political party leaders expressed cautious optimism regarding the latest Indian peace initiative. Vajpayee stated that the All-Parties Hurriyat Conference representatives should meet first with K.C. Pant before seeking to meet with Musharraf in India. Advani later said that extending an invitation to talks to Musharraf did not accord legitimacy to Pakistan’s military regime.
“India-Pakistan Dialogue” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #22)
“Reactions to Talks Offer” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #22)
“India-Pakistan Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #23)
“India Talks Offer” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #22)
“India-Pakistan Summit” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #23)

An editorial in the Times of India argues that Pakistani officials continue to focus on Kashmir as the only issue for talks. Rashmi Saksena writes that India has again seized the initiative in inviting for talks Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf, but also argues that Musharraf may not be able to resist pressure from the Army to set preconditions for the talks, which could give India the opportunity to withdraw its invitation. Stephen Cohen, a South Asia specialist with the Brookings Institution, stated that the invitation was offered to pre-empt increased US activism on the Kashmir issue.
“Commentary on Bilateral Talks” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #22)
“Comments on India-Pakistan Talks Offer” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #22)
“India-US Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #22)
“Commentary on India-Pakistan Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #23)

3. US-India Relations

US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage stated that the Bush administration expected nuclear sanctions against India to be withdrawn gradually over the next four to five months. The Times of India quoted a senior US military official as stating that the US was looking to develop stronger military ties with India to counter the PRC and to stabilize a potential nuclear flashpoint.
“India-US Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #22)

The Dawn reports that India’s ability to achieve a stronger relationship with the US has been linked with India’s efforts to improve relations with Pakistan.
“India-US Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #23)

Former US President Bill Clinton revealed to the BBC that it may have been partly at his insistence that Pakistan withdrew from Kargil and that subsequently then-President Nawaz Sharif was ousted in a coup.
“Kargil Incident” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #23)

4. India Security Policy

Indian Home Minister L.K. Advani unveiled a reorganization of India’s national security structure, which is to include tighter border management and the establishment of a defense intelligence agency and a strategic command to manage the nuclear forces.
“Security” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #22)

5. SAARC Postponement

Sri Lanka informed regional foreign ministers due to visit for the June 8 meetings of the SAARC Standing Committee of Foreign Secretaries that it was postponing the meeting out of respect for the recent regicide in Nepal.
“SAARC” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #23)

6. Sri Lanka Peace Process

Justice Minister Weerakoon responded to media reports by denying that the government was considering lifting the ban on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. The Sri Lankan government, said media minister Anura Yapa, would not lift its ban on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) prior to the beginning of Norwegian-back peace talks. This statement dims the likelihood of imminent talks.
“Peace Process” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #22)
“LTTE Ban” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #23)

Nuclear Weapons

1. India Missile Program

Indian Defense Minister Jaswant Singh informed a parliamentary committee attached to his ministry that the Agni-II ballistic missile, with a range of 2,000 km, was operational and is in limited production to be inducted into the military during 2001-2002.
“India Missile Program” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #23)

Missile Defense

1. Missile Defense Development

The Center for Defense Information released an update to their report on missile defense, which stated that the US Defense Department’s Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO) will be reorganized into three parts focusing on the three stages of ballistic missile flight: boost phase, midcourse, and terminal.
“US Missile Defense Program” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #21)

A new report from PENN-NL (Project on European Nuclear Non-Proliferation) finds that significant Theater Missile Defense (TMD) technology is under development in Europe but that the projects have gone almost unnoticed in the public debate.
“European TMD Systems” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #21)

2. US Politics

Democratic members of the US Congress are moving towards consensus on a response to the Bush administration’s missile defense proposal and that they will not to attack the idea of missile defense, but question the efficacy of the technology and the diplomatic and financial costs. A Carnegie Endowment analysis states that US Senator James Jeffords’ decision to leave the Republican Party means that President Bush will face increased resistance to his policies on issues such as missile defense, arms control treaties and nuclear weapons.
“US Politics” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #21)
“Commentary on Missile Defense” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #21)

US Senator Carl Levin, the next chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said that missile defenses would not likely be fielded in President George Bush’s current administration. He added that missile defenses should not be deployed at all until tests have proven the system’s effectiveness. US Senator Jack Reed said that polls show that most Americans think the US already has a missile defense shield.
“US Politics” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #22)

3. US Consultations: Russia

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov stated that Russia, “Must conduct a dialogue with the US, China and India to find a common response to the new threats in the 21st century.” Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh began four days of talks in Russia with foreign ministry and defense officials there. Russia is attempting to coordinate international response to US plans to deploy missile defense.
“India-Russia Relations” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #23)

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov arrived in the US for two days of intensive talks with the Bush administration on arms control and missile defence. Ivanov said, “We intend to set down our position and initiatives on boosting strategic stability so that no one’s interests are hurt.”
“Russian Statements” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #21)
“Russia’s View on US NMD Program” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 5, PRC)

According to Bush administration officials, President Bush hoped to involve Russian President Vladimir Putin more deeply in US missile defense by offering Russia a package of weapons purchases, joint antimissile exercises and money to rebuild its outmoded early warning radar system and a proposal to include Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles in a new system. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov dismissed as speculation reports that the US was trying to woo Russia into accepting the idea of a missile defense shield by offering to buy missiles from Russia. An essay in the Moscow Times argues that the US needs to recognize that the goal itself is flawed because development will draw resources away from meeting real threats.
“Russian Statements” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #22)
“Russia Denies Missile Rumors” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 5, PRC)

4. US Consultations: NATO, Greece, India

US Secretary of State Colin Powell met with NATO officials and was unable to convince US allies to support missile defense, or even to convince them that a missile threat existed that justified national missile defense. NATO Foreign Ministers on May 29 decided not to back a US missile defense plan but agreed to continue consultations with the US on this issue.
“US Consultations with NATO” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #22)
“NATO Refuses to Back US NMD” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 5, PRC)

Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou avoided criticism of the Bush administration’s proposal to deploy missile defense, but promised the Greece, and NATO as a whole, would carefully examine the plan. Kazakhstan President Nursultan A. Nazarbayev urged US President Bush to work with Russia and other nuclear weapons states to reduce strategic nuclear arsenals rather than proceed with plans to build the missile defense shield and to abandon the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty.
“Other Foreign Statements” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #21)

Parama Sinha Palit, a Research Scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, argues that the proposed US National Missile Defense (NMD) system creates opportunities for India to engage the Bush administration because of India’s support for nuclear disarmament.
“US Missile Defense Program” (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #22)

5. Japanese View of US Missile Defense

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said Wednesday that the US missile defense shield plan is worth researching.
“Japanese View of US Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 6, US)

Japanese Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka made remarks that could be interpreted as insulting to US President George W. Bush, in addition to voicing criticism of the US government’s missile defense plan. It was reported that Tanaka suggested Japan depart from its decades-old security alliance with the US. However, Tanaka denied voicing doubts about the US missile defense plan, saying Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda inaccurately portrayed her remarks to Australia’s top diplomat.
“Foreign Minister’s Criticism against US” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 8, Japan)
“US-Japan Alliance” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 6, US)
“Japanese View of US Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 4, US)
“Japanese View of US Missile Defense” (NAPSNet Daily Report, June 5, US)


1. INF Treaty

Officials from the US, Russia, Belarus, Kazakstan and Ukraine marked the end of 13 years of monitoring under the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) disarmament treaty, signed by then-US President Reagan and former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in December, 1987. The success of the INF treaty may be one reason NATO allies are reluctant to abandon proven arms control arrangements for untested missile defenses.
“INF Treaty” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #21)
“Commentary on Missile Defense” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #22)

2. US Nuclear Command and Control

The National Security Archive at the George Washington University issued a report by William Burr, which states that according to newly declassified documents, US President Dwight D. Eisenhower issued top secret instructions that delegated nuclear-launch authority to military commanders and the Secretary of Defense under specific emergency conditions.
“US Command and Control” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #21)

3. Plutonium Nonproliferation Programs

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reports that the Bush administration has proposed spending only $290 million to dispose of excess weapons plutonium in the US, down from $410 million last year, and plans to suspend all work on the plutonium immobilization program.
“Plutonium Disposal Programs” (NPP Weekly FLASH, V.3 #21)

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